Assessing climate change impacts and indigenous adaptation strategies on forest resource use in Nigeria

Abstract

The impacts of current global climate change vary, depending on the sector and the level of system’s resilience. This study analysed the impact and adaptation mechanisms to climate change among forest communities in Nigeria using a survey of 400 households from five ecological regions of Nigeria. Data were analysed using Ricardian, logit and cost benefit analysis models. Results show that the level of forest dependence varies from 14% in the Sudan savannah to over 47% in the mangrove. Over 88% of respondents have perceived climate change impact, with 84% of respondents noticing changes in forest resource use; these changes were less prevalent in the montane forest where over 65% have noticed no changes. The Ricardian analysis showed that the age and level of education of the household heads significantly and positively impacted on net revenue that the household derived from the forest. Predicted average annual household income from the forest was $3380. Increasing rainfall during winter and spring seasons significantly increase household net revenue by$62 and $75 respectively, and reduces income by$42 and $18 in summer and autumn respectively. A 1oC increase in temperature will lead to a very negligible annual loss in household net income from the forest in all zones. The adaptation options used by the forest communities are agroforestry, erosion control, changing dates of operations, use of improved cook stove, cultural practices, irrigation and migration. The ability to notice climate change and take up adaptation strategies were positively associated with spring rainfall and winter rainfall respectively, while both were negatively associated with summer and autumn rainfall. The determinants of adaptation strategies were level of education, transportation mode, market access, detecting of climate change, household size, access to electricity, number of years of forest use, extension visits and net revenue from the forest. Primary occupation (farming) and age of the household head were negatively associated with the adoption of different adaptation options. The cost benefit analysis showed that while the use of improved cookstove had the highest net profit, turnover ratio and net present value, the use of fertilizer was the least cost effective and together with poor infrastructure were the major barriers to adaptation. Anthropogenic disturbances were shown to exacerbate land use change and forest resource loss in conjunction with climate change. The results indicate a high level of awareness among the communities around the concepts of climate change and the perceived impacts on their forest use. Furthermore, it shows the effects of the combined interactions of climate change and anthropogenic disturbances on forest resource use which blurs the precision in the abstraction and attribution of impacts in Nigeria. This underscores the need for a further integrated research, combining the social and economic elements with biophysical perspectives of climate change impacts that can be useful for incorporating adaptation strategies into national development planning of not only Nigeria but many developing economies in order to build resilience among forest dependent communities