Does Proximity to Conflict Affect Tourism: Evidence from NATO Bombing

Abstract

Iako sukobi, rat, nasilje i terorizam prirodno utječu na turizam, rijetka su istraživanja koja identificiraju moguće kanale kojima se ti učinci šire. U ovom radu istražujemo šire li se štetni učinci putem kanala blizine području sukoba. Sukob na Kosovu 1999. godine i Hrvatsku, a posebno njezinu specifičnu sjeverozapadno-jugoistočnu orijentaciju jadranskih županija, koristimo kao kvazieksperiment kojim identificiramo učinak bombardiranja NATO-a na Kosovu na turizam u Hrvatskoj kao i potencijalni kanal blizine sukobu. Koristeći podatke o hrvatskim poduzećima u razdoblju od 1993. do 1999. godine i identifikacijsku strategiju razlike-u-razlikama, pronalazimo da su prihodi od turizma bili značajno smanjeni zbog bombardiranja NATO-a, posebice u poduzećima koja pružaju usluge smještaja i u poduzećima s 50 ili više zaposlenih. Analizom heterogenih učinaka s obzirom na udaljenost poduzeća od Kosova—koristeći linearni i fleksibilniji model—tvrdimo da unutar zemlje blizina sukobu nije značajan kanal kojim se širi negativni učinak bombardiranja.Although conflict, war, violence, and terrorism naturally affect tourism, research that identifies possible channels through which these effects propagate is scarce. We explore if the adverse effects are channeled through proximity to conflict areas. We use the conflict in Kosovo in 1999 and the country Croatia as a quasi-natural experiment and take advantage of the specific north-west to south-east orientation of Croatian Adriatic counties to identify the effect of NATO bombing in Kosovo on tourism outcomes as well as the potential proximity channel. Using data on the population of Croatian firms in the 1993–1999 period and the difference-in-differences identification strategy we find that tourism companies’ revenues decreased significantly due to NATO bombing, especially in accommodation services and in companies with 50 or more employees. By analyzing heterogeneous effects with respect to the distance of the firm from Kosovo—using a linear and a more flexible model—we argue that within-country proximity to conflict is not a significant channel through which the negative effect propagates