The optimal housing price modeling : Growing of house price and income

Abstract

[[abstract]]本研究以CampbellandCocco(2015)模型為基礎，在效用極大化下，從期數、住宅消費對一般住宅消費偏好、貼現因子、風險規避係數、期末財富的重要程度、利率、通膨、名目利率、房價、成長率和物價水準等因素中，討論房屋價格成長與所得成長對於最適購屋價格的影響。結果顯示，房屋價格成長與最適購屋價格有正向的關係；當所得成長率低時，市場上傾向貸款年限低，所得成長率越高，市場上傾向貸款年限高；以及當第一期實質利率越高，市場上傾向將所得投資在非住房消費上。[[abstract]]ThisthesisisbasedonthemodeloftheCampbellandCocco(2015),underthemaximizationofutility,frommanyfactorslikenumberofperiods,residentialconsumptiontothegeneralresidentialconsumptionpreference,discountfactor,riskaversioncoefficient,theimportanceoftheendofwealth,interestrate,inflationinterestrates,houseprices,growthratesandpricelevels,todiscussthehousingpricegrowthandincomegrowthfortheoptimalpurchaseprice.Theresultsshowthatthegrowthofhousepriceandtheoptimalpurchasepricehasapositiverelationship.Onthemarket,peopletendtoshort-termsloanwhentheincomegrowthrateislowandtendtolong-termsloanwhentheincomegrowthrateishigh.Andalsowhenthefirstofrealinterestrateishigher,peopleonthemarkettendtoinvestinnon-housingconsumption