Econometric Modeling of Electricity Consumption by Households as a Tool for the Calculating of the Social Consumption Norm

Abstract

Since July 2016, it is planned to introduce electricity tariffs with the social consumption norm in all regions of Russia. The methodology for calculation the electricity social consumption norm for different types of households was legally adopted by resolutions of the Government of the Russian Federation. According to these regulations, at least 70 % of the actual volume of electric power supply to the population should fall within the social norm. This article analyzes the validity of the methodology for calculating the social norm. The research is based on the data about the consumption of electricity by Russian households. The purpose of this study is to construct an econometric model of electricity consumption and calculate model- based social norms for different types of households. Explanatory variables in the model are the factors that describe the household size and accommodation conditions: the number of residents, the presence or absence of electric cooker, the type of settlement (urban or rural), the climate of the region where the household lives. The simulation results show that 70 % of electricity will be consumed within the social norms, if the size of the norm for households consisting of one person, will be from 110 to 210 kW·h, depending on the accommodation conditions. The author also evaluates the necessary social norm increments for the second, third and subsequent members of different household types. The developed model takes into account the regional characteristics of energy consumption and can be useful for calculating the social norm of electricity consumption in the regions of Russian Federation