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Vehicle Breakdown Duration Modelling\ud

By W. Wang, H. Chen and M.C. Bell


This paper analyzes the characteristics of vehicle\ud breakdown duration and the relationship between\ud the duration and vehicle type, time, location, and\ud reporting mechanisms. Two models, one based on\ud fuzzy logic (FL) and the other on artificial neural networks\ud (ANN) were developed to predict the vehicle\ud breakdown duration. One advantage of these methods\ud is that few inputs are needed in the modeling.\ud Moreover, the distribution of the duration does not\ud affect the results of the prediction. Predictions were\ud compared with the actual breakdown durations\ud demonstrating that the ANN model performs better\ud than the FL model. In addition, the paper advocates\ud for a standard way to collect data to improve the\ud accuracy of duration prediction.\u

Publisher: Bureau of Transport Statistics
Year: 2005
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