MAP D-PHASE: real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems

Abstract

Mesoscale Alpine Programme Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of Flood Events (MAP D-PHASE) is a forecast demonstration project aiming at demonstrating recent improvements in the operational use of end-to-end forecasting system consisting of atmospheric models, hydrological prediction systems, nowcasting tools and warnings for end-users. Both deterministic and ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) have been implemented for the European Alps (atmospheric models) and a selection of mesoscale river basins (hydrological models) in Central Europe. A first insight into MAP D-PHASE with focus on operational ensemble hydrological simulations is presented here. Copyright 2008 Royal Meteorological Societ