Appraisal of the development of interest rates and exchange rates for selected countries

Abstract

In the beginning this thesis deals with the theory of the exchange rate, its quotations, significance of its economic effect and ultimately the parity rate of interest, which is divided into a covered and an uncovered interest parity. It is followed by the methodology, which includes formulas and procedures used to achieve the aim. The most important part is the practical part, which deals with the general presentation of selected countries (Czech Republic, Republic of Poland, Hungary, Republic of Croatia and Romania) in terms of significant macroeconomic indicators and also shows the development of the exchange rates and interest rates in those countries. Subsequently, the thesis focuses on the verification of the uncovered interest parity by means of a graphical analysis, a regression analysis and a paired t-test. In view of results of these methods the conclusion was reached, that the theory has not been proven. The last two chapters describe the differences between the results of the selected countries and the possible reasons for the failure of the uncovered interest rate parity