Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

Abstract

Climate change is likely to have large effectson the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 Cwarming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100.Precipitation may increase *30 % in the north, causingincreased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter(AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity.Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, inthe south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing codrecruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release,thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north,heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, whilephytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophiclevels in the food web may increase energy losses andconsequently reduce fish production. Future managementof the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climatechange on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as wellas the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load.Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassingboth autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g.,bacterial) processes.Supplement: 3 Special Issue: SI</p