Cyber Deterrence by Punishment: Role of Different Perceptions

Abstract

Nuclear deterrence based on mutual assured destruction seems to have successfully prevented a global nuclear war for decades. Can deterrence be effective for cyber attacks between nation-states? The cyber environment is drastically different from the nuclear case. A major difference is the possibility of different perceptions by the states which may lead to a failure of cyber deterrence. In this paper, we compare differences between nuclear deterrence and cyber deterrence. We adapt a game theoretic model from the nuclear case to the cyber environment and show that differences in perceived payoffs can lead to attack strategies where deterrence fails in cyberspace