Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction

Abstract

PurposeWe evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk.MethodsUsing 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort.ResultsThe major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p?=?0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p?=?0.880; NCC, p?=?0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women.This study was supported by a grant from the Basic Research Laboratory program through the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology [2011-0001564]; the 2010 Seoul National University Brain Fusion Program Research Grant; and a grant from the National Cancer Center, Korea (No. 0910220). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript