The environmental risk of growing genetically modified (GM) crops and particularly
the spreading of GM genes to related non-GM crops is currently a concern in European
agriculture. Because the risks of contamination are linked to the spatial and temporal
arrangements of crops within the landscape, scenarios of crop arrangement are required
to investigate the risks and potential coexistence measures. However, until recently,
only manual methods were available to create scenarios.
This thesis aims to provide a flexible referenced tool to create such scenarios. The
model, called LandSFACTS, is a scientific research tool which allocates crops into
fields, to meet user-defined crop spatio-temporal arrangements, using an empirical and
statistical approach. The control of the crop arrangements is divided into two main
sections: (i) the temporal arrangement of crops: encompassing crop rotations as
transition matrices (specifically-developed methodology), temporal constraints (return
period of crops, forbidden crop sequences), initial crops in fields regulated by temporal
patterns (specifically-developed statistical analyses) and yearly crop proportions; and
(ii) the spatial arrangements of crops: encompassing possible crops in fields, crop
rotation in fields regulated by spatial patterns (specifically-developed statistical
analyses), and spatial constraints (separation distances between crops). The limitations
imposed by the model include the size of the smallest spatial and temporal unit: only
one crop is allocated per field and per year. The model has been designed to be used by
researchers with agronomic knowledge of the landscape. An assessment of the model
did not lead to the detection of any significant flaws and therefore the model is
considered valid for the stated specifications. Following this evaluation, the model is
being used to fill incomplete datasets, build up and compare scenarios of crop
allocations. Within the GM coexistence context, the model could provide useful support
to investigate the impact of crop arrangement and potential coexistence measures on the
risk of GM contamination of crops. More informed advice could therefore be provided
to decision makers on the feasibility and efficiency of coexistence measures for GM
cultivation
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