P-WOLC model for heavy duty pavements project evaluation

Abstract

This research is aimed at developing a probabilistic based model for heavy-duty pavement project evaluation. To achieve this objective studies were conducted in the area of traffic flow, traffic delay modelling, pavement deterioration, pavement condition monitoring, maintenance diaries, vehicle operating cost parameters and economic theories related to asset management. Extensive literature reviews on related topics were carried out as part of the process of developing this model. The major features of the model are its ability to assign random probabilities to various pavement maintenance options and calculate the probabilistic based whole of life cost for any pavement type, for a given design life. To accomplish the task of developing the model a simple traffic delay model was developed. Traffic delay and costs were alculated using the model for predetermined pavement and traffic conditions. Studies were conducted using this model to prove the validity of considering user costs as the predominant cost in any pavement project evaluation process. A probabilistic based whole of life costing model concept was developed along with a supporting traffic delay model and a range of spreadsheets to meet the objectives of this research. This concept was tested using a complete range of data and by making some realistic assumptions. The results obtained from this model are quite encouraging and are expected to provide the basis for a new innovative tool to pavement project engineers for the purpose of pavement project evaluation