D5.6: Report on test data for flat plate tests

In this report the data of the tests on flat, thin, plates performed at the CNR Institute of Marine Engineering (former CNR-INSEAN) are presented. The report provides details on the test specimen and conditions as well as the test data. The tests on thin plates were performed to identify the ballistic limit for rupture. Taking into account the purpose of the experiments, no data were acquired during the tests but only underwater images, test speed and the plate deformation at the end of the test

Spatiotemporal dynamics of plant diversity and endemism during primary succession on an oceanic-volcanic island

Questions: How does the diversity of native, endemic and alien plant species, as well as the diversity of plant life forms, change during primary succession on lava flows of an oceanic?volcanic island? How do environmental factors such as moisture and soil properties alter diversity during primary succession? Location: La Palma, Canary Islands. Methods: We recorded vascular plants and bryophytes in 210 plots on a chronosequence of nine lava flows spanning approx. 6,000 years and covering an elevational range of 1,100 m. In a subset (n = 78 plots) we collected and analyzed soil samples for soil nitrogen and plant?available phosphorus. We used generalized linear models, variance partitioning and structural equation models (SEMs) to analyze the data. Results: Species richness, endemic richness and alien richness increased with time. Natives dominated during early successional stages, whereas endemics and aliens increased with time. At early successional stages, vascular plants and bryophytes had an equal contribution to the species pool, while vascular plants increased up to an 80% contribution at later stages. In the variance partitioning and SEMs, time was the only consistent factor influencing different aspects of diversity during succession (species richness, endemic richness and percent endemism). Only for percent endemism did soil attributes have a substantial impact. Conclusion: Primary succession on lava flows on La Palma shows a pattern of increasing overall diversity, endemism and alien richness with time. Time is the only factor consistently explaining diversity and endemism, indicating that environmental influences such as climate and soil properties do not substantially alter them during primary succession. Our study contributes to understanding how different facets of diversity assemble through time by using an understudied, yet important island system, and, for the first time, specifically addresses how endemics contribute to the process of primary succession

Explaining path-dependent rigidity traps: increasing returns, power, discourses, and entrepreneurship intertwined in social-ecological systems

The current, unprecedented rate of human development is causing major damages to Earth\u27s life-support systems. Therefore, the need for transitions toward sustainability in the use of natural resources and ecosystems has been extensively advocated. To be successful, such transitions must be guided by a sound understanding of the architecture of the policy and institutional designs of both the process of change and the target outcome. Here, we contribute to current research on the institutional conditions necessary for successful transitions toward sustainability in social-ecological systems, addressing two interrelated theoretic-analytical questions through an in-depth case study focused in the Do?ana region (Guadalquivir estuary, southwest Spain). First, we focus on the need for enhanced historical causal explanations of social-ecological systems stuck in maladaptive rigidity traps at present. Second, we focus on the explanatory potential of several factors for shaping maladaptive outcomes, at two different levels of analysis: political-economic interests, prevailing discourses and power, at a contextual level, and institutional entrepreneurship, at an endogenous level. In particular, we address that explanatory potential when the core logic of path dependence fails to predict maladaptive outcomes in a historical, evolutionary perspective. When this occurs, such outcomes are often qualified as unexpected, hence subject to contingency, because of their divergence from purported superior, optimal alternatives. We argue that contingency can be modulated away from randomness and better characterized as unpredictability, through the systematic inclusion of the mentioned factors into analysis. This would, in turn, increase our capacity to inform future policy and institutional transitional designs toward sustainability

Automatic inundation mapping using sentinel-2 data applicable to both Camargue and Do?ana biosphere reserves.

Flooding periodicity is crucial for biomass production and ecosystem functions in wetland areas. Local monitoring networks may be enriched by spaceborne derived products with a temporal resolution of a few days. Unsupervised computer vision techniques are preferred, since human interference and the use of training data may be kept to a minimum. Recently, a novel automatic local thresholding unsupervised methodology for separating inundated areas from non-inundated ones led to successful results for the Do?ana Biosphere Reserve. This study examines the applicability of this approach to Camarque Biosphere Reserve, and proposes alternatives to the original approach to enhance accuracy and applicability for both Camargue and Do?ana wetlands in a scientific quest for methods that may serve accurately biomes at both protected areas. In particular, it examines alternative inputs for automatically estimating thresholds while applying various algorithms for estimating the splitting thresholds. Reference maps for Camargue are provided by local authorities, and generated using Sentinel-2 Band 8A (NIR) and Band 12 (SWIR-2). The alternative approaches examined led to high inundation mapping accuracy. In particular, for the Camargue study area and 39 different dates, the alternative approach with the highest overall Kappa cofficient is 0.84, while, for the Do?ana Biosphere Reserve and Do?ana marshland (a subset of Do?ana Reserve) and 7 different dates, is 0.85 and 0.94, respectively. Moreover, there are alternative approaches with high overall Kappa for all areas, i.e., at 0.79 for Camargue, over 0.91 for Do?ana marshland, and over 0.82 for Do?ana Reserve. Additionally, this study identifies the alternative approaches that perform better when the study area is extensively covered by temporary flooded and emergent vegetation areas (i.e., Camargue Reserve and Do?ana marshland) or when it contains a large percentage of dry areas (i.e., Do?ana Reserve). The development of credible automatic thresholding techniques that can be applied to different wetlands could lead to a higher degree of automation for map production, while enhancing service utilization by non-trained personnel

Assessing the exposure of forest habitat types to projected climate change-implications for Bavarian protected areas

Aim: Due to their longevity and structure, forest ecosystems are particularly affected by climate change with consequences for their biodiversity, functioning, and services to mankind. In the European Union (EU), natural and seminatural forests are protected by the Habitats Directive and the Natura 2000 network. This study aimed to assess the exposure of three legally defined forest habitat types to climate change, namely (a) Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes, and ravines (9180*), (b) bog woodlands (91D0*), and (c) alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (91E0*). We analyzed possible changes in their Bavarian distribution, including their potential future coverage by Natura 2000 sites. We hypothesized that protected areas (PAs) with larger elevational ranges will remain suitable for the forests as they allow for altitudinal distribution shifts. Methods: To estimate changes in range size and coverage by PAs, we combined correlative species distribution models (SDMs) with spatial analyses. Ensembles of SDM algorithms were applied to two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the HadGEM2-ES model for the period 2061-2080. Results: Our results revealed that bog woodlands experience the highest range losses (>2/3) and lowest PA coverage (max. 15% of sites with suitable conditions). Tilio-Acerion forests exhibit opposing trends depending on the scenario, while alluvial forests are less exposed to climatic changes. As expected, the impacts of climate change are more pronounced under the "business as usual" scenario (RCP8.5). Additionally, PAs in flat landscapes are more likely to lose environmental suitability for currently established forest habitat types. Main conclusions: Based on these findings, we advocate the expansion of the Natura 2000 network particularly in consideration of elevational gradients, connectivity, and projected climatic suitability. Nonclimatic stressors on forest ecosystems, especially bog woodlands, should be decreased and climate change mitigation efforts enhanced. We recommend transferring the approach to other habitat types and regions

Optimizing sampling effort and information content of biodiversity surveys: a case study of alpine grassland

Aims: Current rates of biodiversity loss do not allow for inefficient monitoring. Optimized monitoring maximizes the ratio between information and sampling effort (i.e., time and costs). Sampling effort increases with the number and size of sampling units. We hypothesize that an optimal size and number of sampling units can be determined providing maximal information via minimal effort. We apply an approach that identifies the optimal size and number of sampling quadrats. The approach can be adapted to any study system. Here we focus on alpine grassland, a diverse but threatened ecosystem. Location: Gran Paradiso National Park, Italy. Methods: We sampled nine 20m?20 m-plots. Each plot consisted of 100 2m?2 m-subplots. Species richness and Shannon diversity were quantified for different sizes and quantities of subplots. We simulated larger subplot sizes by unifying adjacent 2m?2 m-subplots. Shannon\u27s information entropy was used to quantify information content among richness and diversity values resulting from different subplot sizes and quantities. The optimal size and number of subplots is the lowest size and number of subplots returning maximal information. This optimal subplot size and number was determined by Mood\u27s median test and segmented linear regression, respectively. Results: The information content among richness values increased with subplot size, irrespective of the number of subplots. Therefore, the largest subplot size available is the optimal size for information about richness. Information content among diversity values increased with subplot size if 18 or less subplots were considered, and decreased if at least 27 subplots were sampled. The subplot quantity consequently determined whether the smallest or largest subplot size available is the optimal size, and whether the optimal size can be generalized across richness and diversity. Given a 2m?2m size, we estimated an optimal quantity of 54. Given a size of 4m?4 m, we estimated an optimal number of 36. The optimal number of plots can be generalized across both indices because it barely differed between the indices given a fixed subplot size. Conclusions: The information content among richness and diversity values depends on the sampling scale. Shannon\u27s information entropy can be used to identify the optimal number and size of plots that return most information with least sampling effort. Our approach can be adapted to other study systems to create an efficient in-situ sampling design, which improves biodiversity monitoring and conservation under rapid environmental change

Hydrological impacts of large fires and future climate: Modeling approach supported by satellite data.

Fires have significant impacts on soil erosion and water supply that may be exacerbated by future climate. The aims of this study were: To simulate the eects of a large fire event in the SWAT (Soil andWater Assessment Tool) hydrological model previously calibrated to a medium-sized watershed in Portugal; and to predict the hydrological impacts of large fires and future climate on water supply and soil erosion. For this, post-fire recovery was parametrized in SWAT based on satellite information, namely, the fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) calculated from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The impact of future climate was based on four regional climate models under the stabilization (RCP 4.5) and high emission (RCP 8.5) scenarios, focusing on mid-century projections (2020-2049) compared to a historical period (1970-1999). Future large fire events (>3000 ha) were predicted from a multiple linear regression model, which uses the daily severity rating (DSR) fire weather index, precipitation anomaly, and burnt area in the previous three years; and subsequently simulated in SWAT under each climate model/scenario. Results suggest that time series of satellite indices are useful to inform SWAT about vegetation growth and post-fire recovery processes. Different land cover types require different time periods for returning to the pre-fire fraction of vegetation cover, ranging from 3 years for pines, eucalypts, and shrubs, to 6 years for sparsely vegetated low scrub. Future climate conditions are expected to include an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation with marked uneven seasonal distribution, and this will likely trigger the growth of burnt area and an increased frequency of large fires, even considering dierences across climate models. The future seasonal pattern of precipitation will have a strong influence on river discharge, with less water in the river during spring, summer, and autumn, but more discharge in winter, the latter being exacerbated under the large fire scenario. Overall, the decrease in water supply is more influenced by climate change, whereas soil erosion increase is more dependent on fire, although with a slight increase under climate change. These results emphasize the need for adaptation measures that target the combined hydrological consequences of future climate, fires, and post-fire vegetation dynamics

Climatic and socioeconomic effects on land cover changes across Europe: Does protected area designation matter?

Land cover change is a dynamic phenomenon driven by synergetic biophysical and socioeconomic effects. It involves massive transitions from natural to less natural habitats and thereby threatens ecosystems and the services they provide. To retain intact ecosystems and reduce land cover change to a minimum of natural transition processes, a dense network of protected areas has been established across Europe. However, even protected areas and in particular the zones around protected areas have been shown to undergo land cover changes. The aim of our study was to compare land cover changes in protected areas, non-protected areas, and 1 km buffer zones around protected areas and analyse their relationship to climatic and socioeconomic factors across Europe between 2000 and 2012 based on earth observation data. We investigated land cover flows describing major change processes: urbanisation, afforestation, deforestation, intensification of agriculture, extensification of agriculture, and formation of water bodies. Based on boosted regression trees, we modelled correlations between land cover flows and climatic and socioeconomic factors. The results show that land cover changes were most frequent in 1 km buffer zones around protected areas (3.0% of all buffer areas affected). Overall, land cover changes within protected areas were less frequent than outside, although they still amounted to 18,800 km2 (1.5% of all protected areas) from 2000 to 2012. In some parts of Europe, urbanisation and intensification of agriculture still accounted for up to 25% of land cover changes within protected areas. Modelling revealed meaningful relationships between land cover changes and a combination of influencing factors. Demographic factors (accessibility to cities and population density) were most important for coarse-scale patterns of land cover changes, whereas fine-scale patterns were most related to longitude (representing the general east/west economic gradient) and latitude (representing the north/south climatic gradient)

Seventy-year chronology of Salinas in southern France: Coastal surfaces managed for salt production and conservation issues for abandoned sites

After World War II, twenty-nine coastal Salinas (122 km2), located in the vicinity of coastal lagoons and in deltas, were exploited along the Mediterranean coastlines in South France. Today, only five of these are still actively producing salt, currently representing 175 km2. Concomitant with the abandonment of many of the smaller Salinas, the larger Salinas in the Rh?ne delta (Camargue) strongly increased their surfaces at the expense of natural ecosystems, of which a part has also been abandoned after 2009. This paper documents these changes in landscape use by chronological GIS mapping and describes the fate of the 91 km2 of abandoned Salina surfaces. The majority of this area (88 km2) is included in the Natura 2000 network, among which most (74 km2) has been acquired by the French coastal protection agency (Conservatoire du Littoral) to be designated as Protected Areas. Only a very minor part (< 1%) has been lost for industry and Harbour development. Managing abandoned Salinas as Protected Areas is a challenge, because of the different landscape, biodiversity conservation, natural and cultural heritages issues at stake. In two cases, abandoned Salinas have been brought back again into exploitation by private initiative thus allowing for the protection of original hypersaline biodiversity. In other cases, the shaping of the landscape by natural processes has been privileged. This has facilitated the spontaneous recreation of temporal Mediterranean wetlands with unique aquatic vegetation, and offered opportunities for managed coastal re-alignment and the restoration of hydrobiological exchanges between land and sea. In other areas, former salt ponds continue to be filled artificially by pumping favouring opportunities for waterfowl. This has often been combined with the creation of artificial islets to provide nesting ground for bird colonies protected from terrestrial predators

Predicting the vulnerability of seasonally-flooded wetlands to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin

Wetlands have been decliningworldwide over the last century with climate change becoming an additional pressure, especially in regions already characterized bywater deficit. This paper investigates how climate changewill affect the values and functions of Mediterranean seasonally-flooded wetlands with emergent vegetation. Wesimulated the future evolution ofwater balance,wetland condition andwater volumes necessary tomaintain these ecosystems at mid- and late- 21st century, in 229 localities around the Mediterranean basin.Weconsidered future projections of the relevant climatic variables under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios assuming a stabilization (RCP4.5) or increase (RCP 8.5) of greenhouse gases emissions. We found similar increases of water deficits at most localities around 2050 under both RCP scenarios. By 2100, however, water deficits under RCP 8.5 are expected to be more severe and will impact all localities. Simulations performed under current conditions show that 97% of localities could have wetland habitats in good state. By 2050, however, this proportion would decrease to 81% and 68% under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, decreasing further to 52% and 27% by 2100. Our results suggest that wetlands can persist with up to a 400 mm decrease in annual precipitation. Such resilience to climate change is attributed to the semipermanent character of wetlands (lower evaporation on dry ground) and their capacity to act as reservoir (higher precipitation expected in some countries during winter). Countries at highest risk of wetland degradation and loss are Algeria, Morocco, Portugal and Spain. Degradation of wetlands with emergent vegetation will negatively affect their biodiversity and the services they provide by eliminating animal refuges and primary resources for industry and tourism. A sound strategy to preserve these wetlands would consist of proactive management to reduce non-climate stressor