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A different cold war? European settlement of 1963 and afterward

The expectation of ongoing pressure against the Soviet Union and potential allies elsewhere in world made up the thrust of early US planning for the Cold War, and were emblematic of Containment. They led the US to assume leadership of NATO in Western Europe, and to worldwide US engagements, including in Vietnam.  But the US and NATO during the 1950s could not agree on a defense strategy; Eisenhower’s plan by 1957 and 1958 was for the US to reduce its European presence in favor of national control of nuclear weapons, including by West Germany. That prospect frightened the Soviets, and more than anything else led to Khrushchev’s ultimatum on Berlin in November 1958. Kennedy, with some collaboration from Khrushchev, constructed a settlement by 1963 that would keep US forces in western Europe; keep US nuclear weapons under US control, hence prevent Germans from having them; and maintain the political status quo in central Europe.  A self-enforcing European peace could be achieved only because the Soviet goal of regional hegemony had been thwarted. But Kennedy and Khrushchev both left the scene, following which the accomplishment was poorly understood, a pattern oddly continued by most Cold War observers – including Morgenthau and Kissinger. Had it been better understood, it might have changed US policy toward less intervention in the Third World. Eisenhower left office in January 1961 with the US on the brink of showdown in central Africa, Cuba, and Laos. We got a pre-vision of a different strategy in Kennedy’s policy shifts in all of these, and in withdrawal underway of forces from Vietnam.  Meanwhile, DeGaulle offered a multi-dimensional case for neutrality in southeast Asia. A less ideological, more “realist” view would have led the US to stay “offshore,” to avoid confrontation where superpower interests were only marginally involved, and otherwise to encourage neutralist solutions.  The Cold War might have faded away; but that was not to be. Containment, as practiced, and resumed after 1963, prolonged the Cold War. Kennedy and DeGaulle were effective realists, while Eisenhower, Kissinger, and often Acheson, were not. The 1963 European settlement should have been updated during the decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but it was not. A consequence, in part, was the Ukraine war of 2022.Keywords. Containment; European settlement 1963; Cold War; Realism; Hegemony in Europe; Nuclear weapons policy; MC-48; NATO history; Berlin crisis; Vietnam War;  Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty; Domino Theory; Neutralism; Multi-lateral Force (MLF) arrangements; Dwight Eisenhower; John Kennedy; Dean Acheson; Henry Kissinger; Nikita Khrushchev; Charles DeGaulle; Konrad Adenauer; Harold Macmillan; Walter Lippmann; Hans Morgenthau; John Mearsheimer; Marc Trachtenberg; Kissinger’s Diplomacy; Skybolt missile; Polaris missile; Ukraine War; Congolese neutrality; Laotian neutrality.JEL. M14

Environmental, demographic, and geographical factors affecting the diffusion of covid-19: A case study

Italy was the first European country to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths of the novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This study explains how COVID-19 transmitted so rapidly in northern Italy, analysing the underlying relationships between infected people and environmental, demographic, and geographical factors that influenced its spread. This study analyses data on COVID-19 cases alongside environmental data. This study finds out that cities with little wind, high humidity and frequently high levels of air pollution — exceeding safe levels of ozone or particulate matter — had higher numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. Overall, then, results here suggest that that geo-environmental factors may have accelerated the spread of COVID-19 in northern Italian cities, leading to a higher number of infected individuals and deaths.Keywords. Air pollution; Environment and health; Natural hazards; Risk assessment; Urban environment; Sustainable development and policy assessment; Sustainable growth.JEL. F64; I10; I18; I19;  H75; H84; Q50; Q51; Q52; Q53; Q55; Q58

How to environmental, demographic, and geographical measure the environmental factors influence the spread of Covid-19

Abstract. Italy was the first European country to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths of the novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This chapter explains how COVID-19 transmitted so rapidly in Northern Italy, analysing the underlying relationships between infected people and environmental, demographic, and geographical factors that influenced its spread. This study analyses data on COVID-19 cases alongside environmental data. This study finds out that cities with little wind, high humidity and frequently high levels of air pollution — exceeding safe levels of ozone or particulate matter — had higher numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. Overall, then, results here suggest that geo-environmental factors may have accelerated the spread of COVID-19 in Northern Italian cities, leading to a higher number of infected individuals and deaths.Keywords. Air pollution, Environment and health, Natural hazards, Risk assessment, Urban environment, Sustainable development and policy assessment, Sustainable Growth.JEL. Q12, Q13, Q15, Q18

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Mapping sources, types and importance of ecosystem services from Bulgarian agriculture

Abstract. Agricultural ecosystems of different types and their specific “agro-ecosystem” services are among the most widespread in the world. However, in Bulgaria the state of practical progression of the studies of agricultural services in mostly at the methodological level and very limited to general classification and qualitative “assessments”. This article tries to fill the gap and present initial results of large scale studies on mapping the sources, types and importance of agroecosystem services in Bulgaria. The identification of the type, size, efficiency and importance of “produced” services of agro-systems is based on the assessments of the managers of 324 “typical” farms of different legal status, size, production specialization, ecological and geographical location. The study has found out that there are significant differences in the participation and contribution of agricultural holdings in the protection and provision of agro-ecosystem services in the various specific and principled ecosystems of the country, and major subsectors of agricultural production. The latter requires special measures to improve, diversify and intensify this activity of farmers through training, information, exchange of experience, public incentives and support, etc. Analyzes of the structure and importance of agro-ecosystem services in the country are to be expanded by improving the accuracy and representativeness of the information by increasing the number of surveyed farms, avoiding “double” accounting, applying statistical methods to verify the reliability, special "training" of and those involved in surveys, applying direct field measurements experts and stakeholders involvement etc.Keywords. Ecosystem services, Agriculture, Ammount, Structure, Importance, Bulgaria.JEL. Q12, Q13, Q15, Q18

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Nutritional deficiency and infants’ health outcomes

Abstract. Previous studies show that prenatal shocks to embryos could have adverse impacts on health endowment at birth. Using the universe of birth data and a difference-in-difference-in-difference strategy, I find that exposure to Ramadan during prenatal development has negative birth outcomes. Exposure to a full month of fasting is associated with 96 grams lower birth-weight. These results are robust across specifications and do not appear to be driven by mothers’ selective fertility.Keywords. Birth weight, Fetal origin hypothesis, Nutrition, Ramadan, Health, Religion.JEL. I12, J13, Z12, D13

The place marketing strategy in Moroccan regions: Conditions of applicability

Abstract. Place marketing, a modern place management tool that straddles communication, marketing and territorial strategies, is not only used to promote the territory but also helps territorial governments to manage it better and to think in terms of market. To do this, the environment and the conditions to establish a place marketing strategy must be thought out beforehand. This article aims first of all, to come back to the marketing of territories as, today, an approach before moving on to the conditions and the environment of its implementation in the Moroccan context.Keywords. Place marketing strategy, Territories, Moroccan context.JEL. R12, R13, Q15, Z33