Informe especial de estabilidad financiera: posición financiera de los hogares - Segundo semestre de 2023

La dinámica de los principales mercados en los que el sistema financiero participa (e.g. crédito, depósitos y administración de fondos, entre otros) se encuentra estrechamente vinculada al comportamiento del sector de hogares, dado su papel preponderante en cada uno de estos. Teniendo en cuenta lo anterior y la ocurrencia de episodios de alto crecimiento en el crédito dirigido a este segmento de la economía, se introduce este Informe de periodicidad anual que ofrece un análisis de la evolución de los principales rubros del balance financiero de los hogares de manera regular y ofrece una valoración de sus potenciales implicaciones sobre el sistema financiero. Este Informe emplea la información de Cuentas Financieras Nacionales discriminando por sector institucional que se generan del trabajo conjunto adelantando desde 2016 entre el DANE y el Banco de la República, junto al apoyo de la Cooperación Económica de la Secretaría de Estado para Asuntos Económicos (SECO), financiado por el Gobierno de Suiza y el apoyo técnico del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). En particular, esta fuente de información tiene frecuencia anual entre 2005 y 2016 y a partir de esa fecha se presenta de manera trimestral

Informe especial de estabilidad financiera: riesgo de crédito - Segundo semestre de 2023

Monitorear el riesgo de crédito es fundamental para preservar la estabilidad del sistema financiero. Este informe presenta, para cada modalidad de cartera, un análisis de las condiciones de crédito y de los principales indicadores de riesgo

Boletín Económico Regional : Bogotá, II trimestre de 2023

Los indicadores económicos para la región Bogotá (Bogotá y Cundinamarca) en el segundo trimestre de 2023 mostraron menor dinamismo en relación con un periodo de fuerte reactivación observado un año atrás. Adicional al efecto base de comparación anual, la moderación en el consumo, la pérdida de confianza de los hogares y los altos precios impactaron la industria, el comercio, el transporte aéreo local y de carga, así como la construcción de edificaciones. El comercio exterior presentó relativa normalización frente a la alta demanda postpandemia registrada en ventas y compras externas. La inflación registró corrección a la baja luego de alcanzar el pico más alto en marzo de 2023, paralelamente, la tasa de desempleo presentó mejoría, aunque continuó a niveles de dos dígitos

El Banco de la República: glosas y comentarios

Durante cuatro años formamos parte de la Junta Directiva del Banco de la República, por designación que nos hizo el gobierno nacional. Y como en el ejercicio del cargo pudimos darnos cuenta de que eran muchas las personas que desconocían lo que significa para la economía nacional el funcionamiento de aquel instituto, y no estaban enteradas de la naturaleza y los fines del Banco de Emisión, dimos a la publicidad en 1927 un modesto trabajo de información titulado El Banco de la República: nociones sobre su organización y funcionamiento, que tenemos la impresión de que, en parte al menos, contribuyó a llenar el vacío que se notaba y a extender un poco el conocimiento del objeto propio y de la labor encomendada a nuestro Banco de Emisión. Como es natural, en el tiempo que participamos de las actividades de la Junta Directiva del Banco, se presentaron divergencias de opinión sobre va¬rios problemas y aun sobre la manera como el establecimiento debe ejercer algunas de las funciones que le son propias, a lo cual se refiere el presente trabajo, cuya divulgación hemos estimado que puede ser útil y conveniente, ya por representar él una labor de crítica que complementa la obra primera¬mente publicada, ya también porque habiendo sido nosotros en el seno de la Junta Directiva personeros de los intereses generales, como representantes designados por el gobierno, estimamos en cierto modo un deber informar al público sobre el modo como cumplimos nuestro cometido. En manera alguna pretendemos que solo en nuestros puntos de vista se en¬cuentren la razón y la verdad, sino únicamente, con la independencia de criterio y con la sinceridad que en estas materias son indispensables, presentar aquellos aspectos de los varios asuntos discutidos, que, en nuestro sentir, corresponden mejor a la naturaleza del Banco de la República y a las conveniencias generales. Dos partes comprende el presente trabajo. En la primera nos referimos a ciertos asuntos emanados de las relaciones del Banco de la República con los bancos accionistas y con el público en general: la composición de la Junta Directiva; los varios tópicos concernientes al capital del Banco y al ejercicio de las actividades de este; la política del redescuento; las operaciones con el público, etc. Y tratamos en la segunda de las relaciones del Banco con el go¬bierno, y, principalmente, de la necesidad de que sea efectiva la autonomía e independencia de aquel, no solo en la teoría, sino en la práctica, como un elemento esencial para que exista y se mantenga la confianza pública que ha de rodear al Banco. Si las apreciaciones que este trabajo contiene pudieran contribuir en al¬guna forma al estudio y mejor solución de las materias a que él se contrae y a asegurar por este medio un mayor prestigio para el Banco de la República, quedaríamos ampliamente satisfechos con la labor que nos hemos impuesto […

Historia del Banco de la República, cien años

Con motivo del centenario de la expedición de la Ley 25 de 1923, por medio de la cual se creó el Banco de la República, la entidad ha decidido complementar y actualizar la historia institucional originalmente publicada en 2015, volumen que sigue siendo un excelente compendio de los hechos y las circunstancias que marcaron el primer siglo de actividad de la banca central en Colombia. Consideramos que los lineamientos editoriales de la publicación original siguen siendo válidos y pertinentes: por un lado, se quiso vincular a esta obra a un número amplio de expertos en temas relacionados con las políticas económicas, monetarias, cambiarias y crediticias de Colombia, que aportaran visiones históricas y analíticas variadas en los capítulos que les fueron encomendados, sin exigir que los autores fueran específicamente historiadores de profesión. Por otra parte, para aproximarse a ciertos temas particularmente significativos o idiosincrásicos, como, por ejemplo, la actividad cultural del Banco de la República, se consideró mejor incluir en una sola sección su historia a lo largo de toda la vida institucional del Emisor. Esta combinación, a nuestro juicio, logra que no haya omisiones graves en el registro de estrategias, choques, crisis, éxitos y reveses institucionales en la biografía del Banco de la República. En este contexto, para la edición actualizada (capitulo 13) les correspondió a Pamela Cardozo, Fernando Tenjo y Hernando Vargas estudiar el periodo más reciente de la historia de la entidad, que coincidió con un choque sin precedentes en la historia moderna: la pandemia del covid-19. Un sobresalto económico y social que afecto simultáneamente a naciones desarrolladas y emergentes, y que obliga a un análisis que contraste las respuestas de la política económica de nuestro país con las de otros, tanto los más avanzados o solventes (ninguno de los cuales estaba preparado para un desafío de tal naturaleza), así como naciones en condiciones económicas y financieras comparables a las nuestras. También, era oportuno el examen de la interacción de las diversas respuestas de política económica en el contexto de la relación entre los mercados financieros internacionales y locales. El estudio de este caso servirá, sin duda, como referencia analítica, ojalá por muchos años, confiando en que no presenciemos su repetición o la aparición de circunstancias similares […

Evolución Reciente del Endeudamiento Externo de los Bancos Colombianos - Marzo de 2023

En este informe se describe la evolución reciente de las líneas de crédito en moneda extranjera (M/E) del sistema bancario colombiano con información a marzo de 2023 y se presentan los principales resultados de la Encuesta de endeudamiento externo y cupos aplicada por el Banco de la República

Monetary Policy Report, January 2023

1. Macroeconomic Summary In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for all terms exceeded the 3.0% target. In that month, every major group in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered higher-than-estimated increases, and the diffusion indicators continued to show generalized price hikes. Accumulated exchange rate pressures on prices, indexation to high inflation rates, and several food supply shocks would explain, in part, the acceleration in inflation. All of this is in a context of significant surplus demand, a tight labor market, and inflation expectations at different terms that exceed the 3.0% target. Compared to the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, the forecast path for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items: EFR) increased (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2), reflecting heightened accumulated exchange rate pressures, price indexation to a higher inflation rate (CPI and the producer price index: PPI), and the rise in labor costs attributed to a larger-than-estimated adjustment in the minimum wage. Nevertheless, headline inflation is expected to begin to ease by early 2023, although from a higher level than had been estimated in October. This would be supported initially by the slowdown forecast for the food CPI due to a high base of comparison, the end anticipated for the shocks that have affected the prices of these products, and the estimated improvement in external and domestic supply in this sector. In turn, the deterioration in real household income because of high inflation and the end of the effects of pent-up demand, plus tighter external and domestic financial conditions would contribute to diluting surplus demand in 2023 and reducing inflation. By the end of 2023, both headline and core (EFR) inflation would reach 8.7% and would be 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, by December 2024. These forecasts are subject to a great deal of uncertainty, especially concerning the future behavior of international financial conditions, the evolution of the exchange rate, the pace of adjustment in domestic demand, the extent of indexation of nominal contracts, and the decisions taken regarding the domestic price of fuel and electricity. In the third quarter, economic activity surprised again on the upside and the growth projection for 2022 rose to 8.0% (previously 7.9%). However, it declined to 0.2% for 2023 (previously 0.5%). With this, surplus demand continues to be significant and is still expected to weaken during the current year. Annual economic growth in the third quarter (7.1 % SCA)1 was higher than estimated in October (6.4 % SCA), given stronger domestic demand specifically because of higher-than-expected investment. Private consumption fell from the high level witnessed a quarter earlier and net exports registered a more negative contribution than anticipated. For the fourth quarter, economic activity indicators suggest that gross domestic product (GDP) would have remained high and at a level similar to that observed in the third quarter, with an annual variation of 4.1%. Domestic demand would have slowed in annual terms, although at levels that would have remained above those for output, mainly because of considerable private consumption. Investment would have declined slightly to a value like the average observed in 2019. The real trade deficit would have decreased due to a drop in imports that was more pronounced than the estimated decline in exports. On the forecast horizon, consumption is expected to decline from current elevated levels, partly because of tighter domestic financial conditions and a deterioration in real income due to high inflation. Investment would also weaken and return to levels below those seen before the pandemic. In real terms, the trade deficit would narrow due to a lower momentum projection for domestic demand and higher cumulative real depreciation. In sum, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would stand at 8.0%, 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively (Graph 1.3). Surplus demand remains high (as measured by the output gap) and is expected to decline in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024 (Graph 1.4). Although the macroeconomic forecast includes a marked slowdown in the economy, an even greater adjustment in domestic absorption cannot be ruled out due to the cumulative effects of tighter external and domestic financial conditions, among other reasons. These estimates continue to be subject to a high degree of uncertainty, which is associated with factors such as global political tensions, changes in international interest rates and their effects on external demand, global risk aversion, the effects of the approved tax reform, the possible impact of reforms announced for this year (pension, health, and labor reforms, among others), and future measures regarding hydrocarbon production. In 2022, the current account deficit would have been high (6.3 % of GDP), but it would be corrected significantly in 2023 (to 3.9 % of GDP) given the expected slowdown in domestic demand. Despite favorable terms of trade, the high external imbalance that would occur during 2022 would be largely due to domestic demand growth, cost pressures associated with high freight rates, higher external debt service payments, and good performance in terms of the profits of foreign companies.2 By 2023, the adjustment in domestic demand would be reflected in a smaller current account deficit especially due to fewer imports, a global moderation in prices and cost pressures, and a reduction in profits remitted abroad by companies with foreign direct investment (FDI) focused on the local market. Despite this anticipated correction in the external imbalance, its level as a percentage of GDP would remain high in the context of tight financial conditions. In the world's main economies, inflation forecasts and expectations point to a reduction by 2023, but at levels that still exceed their central banks' targets. The path anticipated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increased and the forecast for global growth continues to be moderate. In the fourth quarter of 2022, logistics costs and international prices for some foods, oil and energy declined from elevated levels, bringing downward pressure to bear on global inflation. Meanwhile, the higher cost of financing, the loss of real income due to high levels of global inflation, and the persistence of the war in Ukraine, among other factors, have contributed to the reduction in global economic growth forecasts. In the United States, inflation turned out to be lower than estimated and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the growth forecast for 2023. Nevertheless, the actual level of inflation in that country, its forecasts, and expectations exceed the target. Also, the labor market remains tight, and fiscal policy is still expansionary. In this environment, the Fed raised the expected path for policy interest rates and, with this, the market average estimates higher levels for 2023 than those forecast in October. In the region's emerging economies, country risk premia declined during the quarter and the currencies of those countries appreciated against the US dollar. Considering all the above, for the current year, the Central Bank's technical staff increased the path estimated for the Fed's interest rate, reduced the forecast for growth in the country's external demand, lowered the expected path of oil prices, and kept the country’s risk premium assumption high, but at somewhat lower levels than those anticipated in the previous Monetary Policy Report. Moreover, accumulated inflationary pressures originating from the behavior of the exchange rate would continue to be important. External financial conditions facing the economy have improved recently and could be associated with a more favorable international context for the Colombian economy. So far this year, there has been a reduction in long-term bond interest rates in the markets of developed countries and an increase in the prices of risky assets, such as stocks. This would be associated with a faster-than-expected reduction in inflation in the United States and Europe, which would allow for a less restrictive course for monetary policy in those regions. In this context, the risks of a global recession have been reduced and the global appetite for risk has increased. Consequently, the risk premium continues to decline, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, and TES interest rates have decreased. Should this trend consolidate, exchange rate inflationary pressures could be less than what was incorporated into the macroeconomic forecast. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their impact on the country remains high, given the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, local uncertainty, and the extensive financing needs of the Colombian government and the economy. High inflation with forecasts and expectations above 3.0%, coupled with surplus demand and a tight labor market are compatible with a contractionary stance on monetary policy that is conducive to the macroeconomic adjustment needed to mitigate the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and to ensure that inflation converges to the target. Compared to the forecasts in the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed level of output exceeding the productive capacity of the economy. In this context of surplus demand, headline and core inflation continued to trend upward and posted surprising increases. Observed and expected international interest rates increased, the country’s risk premia lessened (but remains at high levels), and accumulated exchange rate pressures are still significant. The technical staff's inflation forecast for 2023 increased and inflation expectations remain well above 3.0%. All in all, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored persists, which would accentuate the generalized indexation process and push inflation even further away from the target. This macroeconomic context requires consolidating a contractionary monetary policy stance that aims to meet the inflation target within the forecast horizon and bring the economy's output to levels closer to its potential. 1.2 Monetary Policy Decision At its meetings in December 2022 and January 2023, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) agreed to continue the process of normalizing monetary policy. In December, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to increase the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) and in its January meeting by 75 bps, bringing it to 12.75% (Graph 1.5). 1/ Seasonally and calendar adjusted. 2/ In the current account aggregate, the pressures for a higher external deficit come from those companies with FDI that are focused on the domestic market. In contrast, profits in the mining and energy sectors are more than offset by the external revenue they generate through exports. Box 1 - Electricity Rates: Recent Developments and Indexation. Author: Édgar Caicedo García, Pablo Montealegre Moreno and Álex Fernando Pérez Libreros Box 2 - Indicators of Household Indebtedness. Author: Camilo Gómez y Juan Sebastián Mariñ

Monetary Policy Report - October 2022

1.1 Macroeconomic summary In September, headline inflation (11.4% annually) and the average of core inflation indicators (8.6% annually) continued on a rising trend, and higher increases than expected were recorded. Forecasts increased again, and inflation expectations remained above 3%. Inflationary surprises in the third quarter were significant and widespread, and they are the result of several shocks. On the one hand, international cost and price shocks, which have mainly affected goods and foods, continue to exert upwards pressure on national inflation. In addition to these external supply shocks, domestic supply shocks have also affected foods. On the other hand, the strong recovery of aggregate demand, especially for private consumption and for machinery and equipment, as well as a higher accumulated depreciation of the Colombian peso and its pass-through to domestic prices also explain the rise in inflation. Indexation also contributes, both through the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and through the Producer Price Index (PPI), which continues to have a significant impact on electricity prices and, to a lesser degree, on other public utilities and rent. In comparison with July’s report, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) is higher in the forecast horizon, mainly due to exchange rate pressures, higher excess demand, and indexation at higher inflation rates, but it maintains a trend of convergence towards the target. In the case of food, a good domestic supply of perishable foods and some moderation in international processed food prices are still expected. However, the technical staff estimates higher pressures on this group’s prices from labor costs, raw material prices, and exchange rates. In terms of the CPI for regulated items, the new forecast supposes reductions in electricity prices at the end of the year, but the effects of indexation at higher inflation rates and the expected rises in fuel prices would continue to push this CPI group. Therefore, the new projection suggests that, in December, inflation would reach 11.3% and would decrease throughout 2023 and 2024, closing the year at 7.1% and 3.5%, respectively. These forecasts have a high level of uncertainty, due especially to the future behavior of international financial conditions, external price and cost shocks, the persistence of depreciation of the Colombian peso, the pace of adjustment of domestic demand, the indexation degree of nominal contracts, and the decisions that would be made regarding domestic fuel and electricity prices. Economic activity continues to surprise on the upside, and the projection of growth for 2022 rose from 6.9% to 7.9% but lowered for 2023 from 1.1% to 0.5%. Thus, excess demand is higher than estimated in the previous report, and it would diminish in 2023. Economic growth in the second quarterwas higher than estimated in July due to stronger domestic demand, mainly because of private consumption. Economic activity indicators for the third quarter suggest that the GDP would stay at a high level, above its potential, with an annual change of 6.4%, and 0.6% higher than observed in the second quarter. Nevertheless, these numbers reflect deceleration in its quarterly and annual growth. Domestic demand would show similar behavior, with a high value, higher than that of output. This can be explained partly by the strong behavior of private consumption and investment in machinery and equipment. In the third quarter, investment in construction would have continued with mediocre performance, which would still place it at levels lower than those observed before the pandemic. The trade deficit would have widened due to high imports with a stronger trend than that for exports. It is expected that, in the forecast horizon, consumption would decrease from its current high levels, partly as a consequence of tighter domestic financial conditions, lower repressed demand, higher exchange rate pressures on imported goods prices, and the deterioration of actual income due to the rise in inflation. Investment would continue to lag behind, without reaching the levels observed before the pandemic, in a context of high financing costs and high uncertainty. A lower projected behavior in domestic demand and the high levels of prices for oil and other basic goods that the country exports would be reflected in a reduction in the trade deficit. Due to all of this, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would be 7.9%, 0.5%, and 1.3%, respectively. Expected excess demand (measured via the output gap) is estimated to be higher than contemplated in the previous report; it would diminish in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024. These estimates remain subject to a high degree of uncertainty related to global political tension, a rise in international interest rates, and the effects of this rise on demand and financial conditions abroad. In the domestic context, the evolution of fiscal policy as well as future measures regarding economic policy and their possible effects on macroeconomic imbalances in the country, among others, are factors that generate uncertainty and affect risk premia, the exchange rate, investment, and the country’s economic activity. Interest rates at several of the world’s main central banks continue to rise, some at a pace higher than expected by the market. This is in response to the high levels of inflation and their inflation expectations, which continue to exceed the targets. Thus, global growth projections are still being moderated, risk premia have risen, and the dollar continues to gain strength against other main currencies. International pressures on global inflation have heightened. In the United States, core inflation has not receded, pressured by the behavior of the CPI for services and a tight labor market. Consequently, the U.S. Federal Reserve continued to increase the policy interest rate at a strong pace. This rate is expected to now reach higher levels than projected in the previous quarter. Other developed and emerging economies have also increased their policy interest rates. Thus, international financial conditions have tightened significantly, which reflects in a widespread strengthening of the dollar, increases in worldwide risk premia, and the devaluation of risky assets. Recently, these effects have been stronger in Colombia than in the majority of its peers in the region. Considering all of the aforementioned, the technical staff of the bank increased its assumption regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate, reduced the country’s external demand growth forecast, and raised the projected trajectory for the risk premium. The latter remains elevated at higher levels than its historical average, within a context of high local uncertainty and of extensive financing needs from the foreign sector and the public sector. All of this results in higher inflationary pressures associated to the depreciation of the Colombian peso. The uncertainty regarding external forecasts and its impact on the country remain elevated, given the unforeseeable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, of geopolitical tensions, and of the tightening of external financial conditions, among others. A macroeconomic context of high inflation, inflation expectations and forecasts above 3%, and a positive output gap suggests the need for contractionary monetary policy, compatible with the macroeconomic adjustment necessary to eliminate excess demand, mitigate the risk of unanchoring in inflation expectations, and guarantee convergence of inflation at the target. In comparison with the July report forecasts, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed output level that surpasses the economy’s productive capacity. Headline and core inflation have registered surprising rises, associated with the effects of domestic and external price shocks that were more persistent than anticipated, with excess demand and indexation processes in some CPI groups. The country’s risk premium and the observed and expected international interest rates increased. As a consequence of this, inflationary pressures from the exchange rate rose, and in this report, the probability of the neutral real interest rate being higher than estimated increased. In general, inflation expectations for all terms and the bank’s technical staff inflation forecast for 2023 increased again and continue to stray from 3%. All of the aforementioned elevated the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could heighten widespread indexation processes that push inflation away from the target for a longer time. In this context, it is necessary to consolidate a contractionary monetary policy that tends towards convergence of inflation at the target in the forecast horizon and towards the reduction of excess demand in order to guarantee a sustainable output level trajectory. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its September and October of 2022 meetings, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. In September, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to raise the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps), and in its October meeting, unanimously, by 100bps. Therefore, the rate is at 11.0%. Boxes 1 Food inflation: a comparison with other countrie

Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera - I semestre 2023

I. Desempeño de los establecimientos de crédito • Los establecimientos de crédito en Colombia cuentan con altos niveles de capital y adecuados indicadores de liquidez que les permitirían enfrentar la materialización de diversos riesgos. Por su parte, la rentabilidad ha mostrado una tendencia decreciente desde mediados de 2022. • El crédito ha reducido su ritmo de crecimiento en los últimos meses después de mostrar ritmos de expansión muy altos, al tiempo que se ha observado una mayor mora en la cartera. Esta dinámica se explica principalmente por la modalidad de consumo y podría continuar durante el primer semestre de 2023. II. Ejercicios de sensibilidad relacionados con el colapso del Silicon Valley Bank • El colapso de algunos bancos externos no tuvo impacto directo sobre las entidades financieras locales. • Algunas características que protegen al sistema financiero colombiano son: i) una estructura de balance conservadora tanto por el lado activo como por el lado pasivo de las entidades, ii) la práctica generalizada de valoración del portafolio de inversión a precios de mercado, y iii) la adecuada administración del riesgo de liquidez. III. Exposición del sistema financiero a los hogares • El endeudamiento de los hogares permanece en niveles cercanos a los máximos históricos. • El ahorro de los hogares se ha recuperado, pero permanece por debajo de los niveles pre-pandemia. Los hogares cuentan con recursos líquidos suficientes para cubrir las obligaciones de corto plazo. • De mantenerse una senda de crecimiento bajo de la cartera, se podría esperar una disminución en la relación de deuda a ingreso. IV. Exposición del sistema financiero al sector corporativo • Los indicadores de riesgo de crédito de la cartera comercial se ubican en niveles bajos. Se observa un leve deterioro para ciertos sectores. • Por otro lado, la mayoría de la deuda en moneda extranjera del sector corporativo cuenta con mecanismos de mitigación del riesgo cambiario. V. Instituciones financieras no bancarias • La rentabilidad de las instituciones financieras no bancarias ha mostrado una recuperación, aunque permanece por debajo de los valores pre-pandemia. • Los fondos de inversión colectiva abiertos sin pacto de permanencia han mostrado caídas en sus indicadores de liquidez en los últimos meses, pero estos permanecen muy por encima de los mínimos regulatorios. VI. Ejercicios de estrés Evalúa la resiliencia de los establecimientos de crédito en un escenario hipotético adverso, extremo y poco probable que considera los siguientes elementos: I. Caída significativa de los términos de intercambio: Reducción persistente del precio de petróleo. II. Mayor percepción de riesgo país, fuerte contracción de la demanda interna y aumento del desempleo. III. Se considera la liquidación gradual de un porcentaje del portafolio de deuda pública de inversionistas extranjeros. IV. Se tienen en cuenta los riesgos de: crédito, mercado, tasa de interés, fondeo, liquidez y riesgo de contagio. V. Se contempla un deterioro especialmente grande de la cartera de ciertos sectores y deudores. • Además, se incluyen dos ejercicios de estrés adicionales: i) sobre los establecimientos de crédito con estados financieros consolidados y que tienen subsidiaras en Centroamérica y ii) ejercicio de sensibilidad que evalúa la capacidad de los fondos de inversión colectiva abiertos sin pacto de permanencia para enfrentar escenarios extremos de retiros masivos. • Los resultados del ejercicio sobre la solvencia de los establecimientos de crédito sugieren que el sistema a nivel agregado tiene la suficiente capacidad patrimonial para absorber pérdidas extremas. • Por su parte, los fondos de inversión colectiva abiertos sin pacto de permanencia reducirían sus indicadores de liquidez ante choques de retiros masivos, aunque permanecerían por encima de los límites regulatorios. Recuadro 1: Una medición del nivel de descalces cambiarios negativos de las firmas del sector real en Colombia en 2022 Autores: Álvaro David Carmona Duarte, Adrián Martínez Osorio y Jorge Niño Cuervo Recuadro 2: Indicador de riesgo cibernético Autores: Mariana Escobar Villarraga, María Fernanda Meneses y Eduardo Yanquen Recuadro 3: Estrés financiero en el sistema bancario en Estados Unidos y un ejercicio de sensibilidad sobre la solvencia de los establecimientos de crédito Autores: Diego Cuesta, Camilo Gómez y Eduardo YanquenRecuadro 1: Una medición del nivel de descalces cambiarios negativos de las firmas del sector real en Colombia en 2022. Autores: Álvaro David Carmona Duarte, Adrián Martínez Osorio y Jorge Niño CuervoRecuadro 2: Indicador de riesgo cibernético. Autores: Mariana Escobar Villarraga, María Fernanda Meneses y Eduardo YanquenRecuadro 3: Estrés financiero en el sistema bancario en Estados Unidos y un ejercicio de sensibilidad sobre la solvencia de los establecimientos de crédito. Autores: Diego Cuesta, Camilo Gómez y Eduardo Yanque

Reporte de la situación del crédito en Colombia - Diciembre de 2022

Este reporte presenta los resultados de la Encuesta trimestral sobre la situación del crédito en Colombia, en la que participan los intermediarios financieros que realizan operaciones de crédito, como bancos, compañías de financiamiento (CFC) y cooperativas financieras (cooperativas). El objetivo de este reporte es analizar la percepción que tienen las entidades sobre la oferta, la demanda y el acceso al crédito, los cambios en las políticas de asignación en el trimestre analizado y las expectativas que se tienen para el próximo. Además, presenta el comportamiento de las modificaciones y reestructuraciones de los créditos, y la carga financiera de los deudores con nuevos créditos en las carteras a hogares. El documento está compuesto por seis secciones. La primera analiza el panorama general de la situación del crédito, centrándose en las percepciones que tienen los EC con respecto a su demanda y oferta. La segunda se enfoca en la situación sectorial. En la tercera sección se analizan en detalle los cambios en la oferta y las políticas de asignación de nuevos créditos. En la cuarta se presentan los principales resultados sobre modificaciones y reestructuración de préstamos, y en la quinta se analiza la carga financiera de los deudores de nuevos créditos a hogares. Finalmente, en la sexta sección se incluyen algunos comentarios generales que resumen la situación actual del crédito en Colombia