Integrating geometric and causation probability approaches into Dynamic Bayesian Networks for real-time collision risk prediction

Maritime transportation is vital for international trade, yet collision accidents continue to pose serious risks to navigational safety and global economic stability. This study develops a novel collision risk prediction model based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN), incorporating both geometric and causation probability approaches to realise real-time ship collision risk prediction and probabilistic risk assessment. Leveraging raw Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, the proposed model dynamically updates the probabilities of influential factors using Markov-chain-based transition analyses, mitigating uncertainties caused by noisy or incomplete data. In contrast to traditional deterministic models, the DBN captures mutual dependencies among dynamic risk factors, including variations in speed ratio, relative bearing, and temporal-spatial parameters such as Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA) and relative distance. The model categorises collision risk into five discrete levels, ranging from very low to very high, providing decision-makers with actionable insights for real-time navigational safety. A key innovation lies in modelling these interdependencies among influential factors, which enables a holistic understanding of collision dynamics. Simulation results demonstrate that the DBN model outperforms traditional Collision Risk Index (CRI) approaches, particularly in accurately predicting complex collision scenarios and reflecting aggressive manoeuvres. This study presents a robust framework for maritime collision risk prediction, offering a foundation for enhancing navigational safety in increasingly congested and mixed-traffic environments involving the coexistence of manned and unmanned vessels.</p

APOLLO: an open platform for LLM-based multi-agent interaction research

Traditional decision-making processes often struggle to capture diverse stakeholder perspectives and anticipate potential outcomes. Complex decisions and persuasions might rely on insights and perspectives which might not be available. In this paper, we leverage recent advances in large language models and retrieval-augmented generation to introduce APOLLO—an Architecture and oPen-source system that Orchestrates Large Language mOdels. APOLLO coordinates multiple LLMs by engaging them in collaborative discourse to reach a consensus on user-defined prompts. This system enables HCI and AI researchers and practitioners, and allows them to explore and experiment with LLM-based multi-agents systems in a user-configurable and customisable manner. By providing this flexible platform, APOLLO enables new avenues for studying and designing human-AI interactions, investigating the impact of multi-agent interaction on human behaviour, and ultimately facilitates a deeper understanding of how AI-driven collaboration can enhance human-AI interaction and decision making.</p

Identifying priority wetland sites in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway for migratory bird conservation

The East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF) is widely recognised to be the most threatened of the eight flyways in the world, with wetlands rapidly lost due to land cover change, unsustainable use, and the wider impacts of climate change. The recently established Regional Flyway Initiative (RFI) aims to bring a set of priority wetlands in the EAAF under improved protection, management, and restoration in 10 Asian countries, while mobilising resources for sustainable agriculture, aquaculture, ecotourism, and other livelihoods for local communities. A major step in the development of this initiative is the identification of priority wetland sites through the application of international criteria, based on modern waterbird count data collated from wetland sites across Asia. Through existing analyses and expert consultations, we short-listed a minimum of 270 internationally important wetlands as candidate localities for further assessment. Count data of EAAF waterbird species was then assessed against international criteria aligned with the Convention on Wetlands (Ramsar Convention), the EAAF Partnership’s Flyway Site Network and Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas for each site to iteratively identify a subset of priority sites, drawing on newly available species population thresholds. Each site was scored and ranked using a metric (Prioritisation Criterion 1) calculated from the proportions of every occurring EAAF species against published population thresholds. We identified a total of 147 wetland sites of high conservation priority across the 10 countries, both freshwater and coastal. At least 34 threatened species, including significant proportions of their global populations are represented in this set of 147 sites. To ensure that conservation opportunities are maximised for species and ecosystem services, there is a need to ensure that selected sites and landscapes are reconciled with the conservation and development priorities of each country, ecological connectivity and to evaluate priority sites for their ecosystem services

A research agenda for political trust

Elgar Research Agendas outline the future of research in a given area. Leading scholars are given the space to explore their subject in provocative ways, and map out the potential directions of travel. They are relevant but also visionary.This timely book sets out an agenda for social science research on political trust, confronting contemporary conceptual, theoretical, and empirical problems. It grapples with the breakdown of reliance on political systems in democratic societies, exploring why many people perceive politicians and public administrators as corrupt and unconcerned about the public interest.Expert authors present a concise overview of political trust, providing empirical and conceptual contributions with global coverage. They demonstrate how citizens'' beliefs about their governments and leaders can impact the resilience, breakdown, or emergence of democracy. Chapters examine how politicians are seen as unwilling to address urgent problems ranging from global climate change to local poverty and social injustices. Authors investigate political support and institutional confidence through the lens of wavering trust and the increase of autocratic regimes. Guiding future scholarship, this book addresses important questions and indicates key avenues for research.A Research Agenda for Political Trust is a vital resource for scholars and students of political theory and public policy, as well as sociology and the broader social sciences. Practitioners and policymakers in regulation, governance, and public administration and management will also benefit from its valuable insights

Rethinking legal approaches to electronic bills of lading: from functional equivalence to a substantive approach

The transition from paper-based to electronic bills of lading represents a significant advancement in global trade, promising enhanced efficiency and security. However, this transition also raises complex regulatory challenges. Among the regulatory approaches, functional equivalence has become the cornerstone for legitimizing electronic bills of lading. Scholarship and practice have largely embraced this principle without subjecting it to sustained critical scrutiny, although a few scholars have questioned its limitations in the legal context. In other words, although functional equivalence has been widely accepted, its limitations in the legal context remain underexplored. This research aims to critically evaluate functional equivalence and explore potential alternative approaches to better address the emerging challenges posed by new technologies. This research will first examine the theoretical underpinnings and historical foundations of functional equivalence. It will trace how this concept entered the field of law and became a regulatory approach for electronic records, including electronic bills of lading. The study will then evaluate how the principle was articulated in UNCITRAL's exploration of e-commerce and assess its adequacy in regulating electronic bills of lading, thereby laying the groundwork for a critical examination of its limitations.Beyond evaluating functional equivalence, this thesis also draws on the regulatory explorations of other international organisations. The proposed substantive approach on controlled electronic records highlights issues of control, proprietary rights, and custody, offering a distinct perspective. Building on these insights, this thesis proposes a substantive approach as an alternative framework for regulating electronic bills of lading. This approach aims to move beyond functional equivalence by directly addressing the substantive legal requirements of electronic bills of lading

Feeding practices and concerns as mediators between maternal mental health and eating behaviours in early childhood

BACKGROUND: The impact of maternal mental health on child eating beyond infancy is understudied. This study explores whether maternal feeding practices and concerns mediate the association between maternal depression and anxiety symptoms and eating behaviours at age three years.METHODS: Data from 409 mother-child dyads in the Growing Up in Singapore Towards healthy Outcomes cohort were analysed. Maternal mental health was assessed using the Beck Depression Inventory-II and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, feeding practices and concerns with the Preschooler Feeding Questionnaire, and child eating behaviours with the Children's Eating Behaviour Questionnaire. Structural equation modelling was used to test pathways.RESULTS: Depression symptoms in mothers showed direct and indirect links to child eating behaviours. For example, maternal depression symptoms were directly associated with enjoyment of food (B = 0.011, p = 0.015) and indirectly with food responsiveness (B = 0.004, p = 0.034) via use of food to calm the child. Anxiety symptoms, however, had only indirect associations with child eating behaviours through maternal feeding concerns, not practices. For example, maternal anxiety symptoms were indirectly linked with food responsiveness through perceived difficulty in feeding (B = -0.001, p = 0.011).CONCLUSIONS: Depression and anxiety symptoms influence children's eating behaviours differently. Anxiety symptoms were linked with child eating behaviours only through maternal feeding concerns, whereas depression symptoms were linked with child eating behaviours both directly and indirectly via feeding to calm the child. As maternal anxiety symptoms are linked with more child eating concerns, the validity of mother-reported child eating behaviours requires consideration.</p

Exploring geographic differences in IgE response through network and manifold analyses

Background: Component-resolved diagnostics allow detailed assessment of IgE sensitization to multiple allergenic molecules (component-specific IgEs, or c-sIgEs) and may be useful for asthma diagnosis. However, to effectively use component-resolved diagnostics across diverse settings, it is crucial to account for geographic differences.Objective: We investigated spatial determinants of c-sIgE networks to facilitate development of diagnostic algorithms applicable globally.Methods: We used multiplex component-resolved diagnostics array to measure c-sIgE to 112 proteins in an international collaboration of several studies: WASP (World Asthma Phenotypes; United Kingdom, New Zealand, Brazil, Ecuador, and Uganda), U-BIOPRED (Unbiased Biomarkers for the Prediction of Respiratory Disease Outcomes; 7 European countries), and MAAS (Manchester Asthma and Allergy Study, a UK population-based birth cohort). Hierarchical clustering on low-dimensional representation of co-occurrence networks ascertained sensitization and c-sigE clusters across populations. Cross-country comparisons focused on a common subset of 18 c-sIgEs. We investigated sensitization networks across regions in relation to asthma severity.Results: Sensitization profiles shared similarities across regions. For 18 c-sIgEs shared across study populations, the response structure enabled differentiation between different geographic areas and study designs, revealing 3 clusters: (1) Uganda, Ecuador, and Brazil, (2) U-BIOPRED children and adults, and (3) New Zealand, United Kingdom, and MAAS. Spectral clustering identified differences between clusters. We observed constant, almost parallel shifts between severe and nonsevere asthma in each country.Conclusions: Patterns of c-sIgE response reflect geographic location and study design. However, despite geographic differences in c-sIgE networks, there is a remarkably consistent shift between networks of subjects with nonsevere and severe asthma