An introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference and model comparison -- with examples for psychology and behavioural science

Bayesian inference is becoming an increasingly popular framework for statistics in the behavioural sciences. However, its application is hampered by its computational intractability -- almost all Bayesian analyses require a form of approximation. While some of these approximate inference algorithms, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), have become well-known throughout the literature, other approaches exist that are not as widespread. Here, we provide an introduction to another family of approximate inference techniques known as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We show that SMC brings a number of benefits, which we illustrate in three different examples: linear regression and variable selection for depression, growth curve mixture modelling of grade point averages, and in computational modelling of the Iowa Gambling Task. These use cases demonstrate that SMC is efficient in exploring posterior distributions, reaching similar predictive performance as state-of-the-art MCMC approaches, in less wall-clock time. Moreover, they show that SMC is effective in dealing with multi-modal distributions, and that SMC not only approximates the posterior distribution, but simultaneously provides a useful estimate of the marginal likelihood, which is the essential quantity in Bayesian model comparison. All of this comes at no additional effort of the end user

Task goals constrain the alignment in eye-movements and speech during interpersonal coordination

Collaborative task performance is assumed to benefit from interpersonal coordination of behaviors between interacting individuals. Prominent views of language use and social behavior, including the Interactive Alignment Model (IAM; Pickering & Garrod, 2004), endorse this idea by building on tasks that require partners to monitor each other’s perspective (e.g., route planning) and positing that behavioral alignment enables task partners to converge conceptually. However, the role of alignment in tasks requiring complementarity (e.g., a “divide and conquer” strategy during joint visual search) has yet to be explored. We examine this question directly by manipulating task goals (route planning vs. visual search) as forty dyads work with ten trials involving subway maps while their eye movements and speech were co-registered. In five trials, dyads planned a route from an origin to a destination (route planning); in another five trials, they searched for landmarks sharing some feature (visual search). We used Cross Recurrence Quantification Analysis (CRQA) to examine the temporal relationships between partners' eye fixations and word sequences, generating measures that reveal both similarity and other dynamic relationships. Dyads exhibited more gaze alignment in route planning than visual search across a range of CRQA metrics. When examining the temporal evolution of gaze alignment, we found it to vary across the trial substantially, and its increase influenced accuracy differently over time across the two tasks. Specifically, in visual search, higher increases in alignment at the end of the trial were associated with accurate performance. When we turned to speech data, we found that dyads exhibited longer and more entropic word sequences in route planning but had lower overall word recurrence in that task. This finding suggests that the two modalities organize in a compensatory fashion to optimize distinct task goals. We suggest that these results support a theoretical framework that is more general than IAM yet has interactive alignment as an emergent consequence of how participants adapt to tasks. This framework emphasizes the dynamic adaptation of coordination strategies based on task demands. Altogether, task goals constrain how people coordinate their behavior and provide insights into how collaborating partners distribute their distinctive multimodal behavior

Computational phenotyping of cognitive decline with retest learning

INTRODUCTION: Cognitive change is a complex phenomenon encompassing both retest-related performance gains and potential cognitive decline. Disentangling these dynamics is necessary for effective tracking of subtle cognitive change and risk factors for ADRD. METHODS: We applied a computational cognitive model of learning and forgetting to data from Einstein Aging Study (n = 316). EAS participants completed multiple bursts of ultra-brief, high-frequency cognitive assessments on smartphones. Analyzing response time data, we extracted several key cognitive markers: short-term intraindividual variability in performance, within-burst retest learning and asymptotic (peak) performance, across-burst change in asymptote and forgetting of retest gains. RESULTS: Asymptotic performance was related to both MCI and age, and there was evidence of asymptotic slowing over time. Long-term forgetting, learning rate, and within-person variability uniquely signified MCI, irrespective of age. DISCUSSION: Computational cognitive markers hold promise as sensitive and specific indicators of preclinical cognitive change, aiding risk identification and targeted interventions

Corporate Personification: A Mind/Body Metaphor Guides Blame for Organizational Wrongdoing

In cases of corporate wrongdoing, it is difficult to assign blame across multiple agents who played different roles. We propose that people metaphorize corporations and have dualist ideas of corporate hierarchies: with the boss as “the mind” and the employee as “the body" such that the employee appears to carry out the will of the boss. Three experiments tested whether people judge the boss to be more responsible and causally efficacious when the metaphor is made relatively more (vs. less) apt. We tested this by varying features of a boss giving orders to an employee consistent with features that bolster the sense that an individual's will causes their actions (Wegner 2004). This work suggests that the same features that tell us our minds cause our actions also facilitate the metaphor that a boss has willed the behavior of an employee and is ultimately responsible for bad outcomes in the workplace

Supporting Young Siblings of Children with Intellectual Disabilities and/or Visual Impairments with the Serious Game ‘Broodles’: A Mixed Methods Randomized Controlled Trial

Background: Siblings of children with neurodevelopmental conditions experience conflicting emotions and have an increased risk of mental health problems. Several sibling interventions have been developed, but few are readily available, leaving many siblings unsupported. Therefore, the free, online, self-administered sibling serious game ‘Broodles’ was developed. This study assessed its social validity and effectiveness in promoting quality of life, and inter- and intrapersonal factors in siblings (6–9 years) of children with intellectual disabilities and/or visual impairments. Methods: A mixed methods, waitlist control group, randomized controlled trial was conducted. In total, 107 Dutch or Belgian parent-child dyads completed questionnaires at three timepoints (baseline, one-month post-test, two-month follow-up). The intervention group also completed post-test interviews. Effects were assessed using multilevel modelling, and thematic analysis was applied to the evaluations. Results: Significant, weak interaction effects (R² = .03–.06) were found on sibling negative adjustment, but only in those who completed ≥75% of the game and followed the study timeline. Regardless of group, (very) small, significant improvements over time were found on several outcomes (R² = .01–.06). ‘Broodles’ was experienced as fun (80%) and helpful (79%). Perceived learning outcomes included the themes: ‘sibling awareness and validation’, ‘emotions and needs’, ‘coping with emotions and situations’ and ‘family interactions’. Conclusion: Although quantitative data showed small effects, qualitative data revealed a variety of learning outcomes which can contribute to siblings’ resilience, and prevention of mental health problems. To unlock its full potential, future studies should examine if additional family-targeted components can enhance the intervention’s impact

Reduced Pavlovian value updating alters decision-making in sign-trackers

This study examines how interindividual differences in Pavlovian learning, specifically in sign-trackers and goal-trackers, shape Pavlovian bias in decision-making. Using a three-phase Pavlovian-to-Instrumental Transfer task in humans, combined with computational modeling and pupillometry, we found that although both groups learned optimal decision-making strategies, sign-trackers more frequently deviated from them when exposed to Pavlovian cues, favoring suboptimal options linked via the cue-outcome association. A dynamic arbitration model revealed that this effect was due to slower updating of Pavlovian cue values during the transfer phase, rather than overvaluation of the cue relative to instrumental actions. These findings offer a computational framework for understanding rigid decision patterns and may inform interventions for disorders marked by maladaptive cue reactivity

Counterfactual Models, Counterintuitive Outcomes: Social and Prosocial Factors Mediate Improved Functioning after Acute Adversity

Although several studies have suggested acute adversity can stimulate improved functioning, very few have used prospective designs, counterfactual models, and instrumental variables to establish potential causal links. Using a theoretical framework of psychosocial gains from adversity, two natural experiments, and causal inference techniques, we investigated the impact of acute adversity on adaptive functioning and its mediation through social and prosocial factors. Study 1 (n = 250 bereaved spouses; n = 83 married controls) used a prospective investigation of late life bereavement with pre- and post-loss assessments to examine these questions. At 6-months post-loss, bereaved participants, compared to married controls, reported increased ordinary social interaction, improved instrumental support, reduced hassles with friends and relatives, and an increase in formal social meetings. Average causal mediational analyses found that increased ordinary social interactions and perceptions of support mediated a reduction in depression and anxiety symptoms, relative to pre-loss levels. Study 2 used a similar prospective natural experiment but of severe hurricane exposure (n = 1182 flooded participants; n = 3162 non-flooded controls). An instrumental variable analysis revealed that flood had causal effects on increased social support and prosocial volunteering. As with bereavement, average causal mediation analyses supported a favorable effect of flood on increased life satisfaction and health perceptions through social support and prosocial volunteering. Consistent with evolutionary accounts of reciprocal altruism, these effects were stronger when social cohesion was perceived as higher. Findings support a more expansive account of the effects of acute adversity that includes positive effects through adaptive social and prosocial processes

Development and validation of the Motivation for Language Reclamation Scale (MLRS)

In response to hate speech, representatives of minorities use reclaimed derogatory language. Until now, psychological research has treated reclamation as a uniform concept in terms of the motivations of minorities, despite theoretical perspectives suggesting otherwise. In this paper, based on previous research, we described three motivations for using reclaimed language: to regain control, for humorous purposes, and to consolidate relationships in the community. We reported the process of creating a new scale to measure these three motivations. The three-dimensional structure of the Motivation for Language Reclamation Scale (MLRS) was validated in two studies (N = 362; N = 141) among gay people in Poland. We also showed that the motivations have various implications for collective action. The MLRS provides researchers and practitioners with a reliable tool for exploring the psychological processes involved in language reclamation and its effects on minority group members

Action interpretation determines the effects of go/no-go and approach/avoidance actions on food choice

Executing go/no-go and approach/avoidance responses toward objects can increase people's choices of go over no-go items, and of approach over avoidance items. Some theoretical accounts explain these effects as the results of merely executing these responses (i.e., action execution), while others propose that these choice effects stem from interpreting these motor responses as valenced actions (i.e., action interpretation). To test the role of action execution versus action interpretation in both go/no-go and approach/avoidance responses, we employed a recently developed training that combined both dimensions orthogonally. Participants either pressed a key or not (i.e., go/no-go) to control a shopping cart on screen, to either collect or not collect certain food items (i.e., approach/avoidance). After the training, they repeatedly chose between food items (i.e., candies) for real consumption. When the instructions framed the responses as approach/avoidance actions, participants (N = 98) preferred approach items over avoidance items, but did not show preferences between go and no-go items in their choices. In contrast, when the instructions framed the responses as go/no-go actions, participants (N = 98) preferred go items over no-go items, but did not show preferences between approach and avoidance items. Despite making the same actual responses in both instruction groups, action interpretation determined whether go/no-go or approach/avoidance actions influenced food choice. Disambiguating the interpretation of motor responses as clearly valenced and meaningful actions may therefore be a fruitful way to maximize the effectiveness of response-based behavioral interventions

Do Likert-type items yield interval-scaled measurements of subjective agreement? An empirical test of individual-level response structures

Numeric ratings of agreement (also known as Likert-scales) are one of the most common assessment tools in psychology. However, little is known about the measurement theoretic properties of such ratings. Most prominently, the question whether such ratings yield interval scaled measurements has been questioned on theoretical grounds, the key issue being that interval scales do not only require ratings to be order preserving, but also additive. In this article, I apply a representational measurement model to investigate intra-individual response structures with regard to Likert-scale items. The model is borrowed from the psychophysical paradigm of cross-modality comparisons and allows for an explicit empirical test of additivity on the level of individual responses. A within-subjects experiment with N = 140 individuals was conducted, where subjects were instructed to rate their agreement to a set of items from a standardized personality questionnaire. The ratings were performed repeatedly with varying reference stimuli to evoke difference ratings for agreement. These difference ratings were then used to test the conditions of the measurement model. The results indicate that 51% of the individuals showed additivity in their rating behavior. Therefore, an interval scale representation of subjective agreement was possible for about one half of the individuals, whereas the other half did not produce agreement ratings on an interval scale. While the results clearly demonstrate that interval scale measurements using numeric ratings are possible, they also indicate that such quantitative representations should not be taken at face value but need to be tested empirically