CHINA'S MARITIME PIVOT: CPEC AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA CONNECTION

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a critical component of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with far-reaching implications for regional and global geopolitics. This study investigates the strategic significance of CPEC in China's broader geopolitical strategy, particularly its South China Sea ambitions. The research question guiding this inquiry is: How does CPEC mitigate China's trade security vulnerabilities in the South China Sea region, and what are the implications for regional dynamics and global trade routes? By analysing the impact of CPEC on maritime security, energy trade, and regional power dynamics, this research reveals the corridor's pivotal role in enhancing China's energy security, countering US influence and Indian concerns, and solidifying China's position as a global economic powerhouse. The study also examines the challenges and opportunities arising from CPEC implementation, including its potential to reshape regional alliances and challenge existing global trade patterns. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of China's geopolitical ambitions and the significance of CPEC in advancing its strategic interests.   Bibliography Entry Alla Ud Din, Shi Xiaolian and Uzma Siraj. 2024. "China's Maritime Pivot: CPEC and the South China Sea Connection." Margalla Papers 28 (2): 1-13

ANALYSING CONVENTIONAL DETERRENCE IN A NUCLEARISED SOUTH ASIA

This article advances the debate on the dynamics and effectiveness of conventional deterrence in a nuclearised South Asia. Conventional deterrence is primarily based on the precept of dissuasion, playing an integral part in states’ defence policies. It leverages conventional military capabilities and the adept use of military strategy to dissuade opponents from initiating major campaigns and escalations into full-blown war. The study validates the role of conventional deterrence by carefully examining two India-Pakistan sub-cases: the 1999 Limited Kargil War and the 2019 Balakot Aerial Confrontation. Through these two sub-cases, the research elucidates the complex relationship between numerical strength and intelligent military planning in denying opponents their military objectives and preventing the employment of nuclear weapons.   Bibliography Entry Mehmood, Nasir and Syeda Zainab Asif. 2024. "Analysing Conventional Deterrence in a Nuclearized South Asia." Margalla Papers 28 (2): 14-32

GAZA UNDER SIEGE: ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER DURING ISRAEL-PALESTINE CONFLICT, SUGGESTIONS AND SOLUTIONS

The war in Gaza imposed by Zionist Israel has caused a substantial human loss. At the same time, this war had a disastrous environmental effect. Massive environmental destruction is reported. Vast fields, orchards, and green areas have been destroyed due to the Israeli invasion. The water management system has been devastated, forcing residents of Gaza to use contaminated water. Emissions from military hardware have added to environmental vows. Though human loss and suffering cannot be compensated, and after sympathising with Gaza civilians as a sacred duty, the next important obligation is to stop environmental destruction in the strip and to think about how to restore it. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and other organisations are working, but there is room for further improvement. This paper aims to find short and long-term solutions to the restoration of Gaza’s environmental infrastructure, including water management, fields, orchards, and eco-friendly reconstruction of buildings. In addition, the article explores Pakistan’s role in this conflict as well as Israel’s Eco crimes and probes whether Israel is guilty of Ecocide (Environmental genocide).   Bibliography Entry Khan, Waqas Ahmed and Kamil Shehzad Bakhsh. 2024. "Gaza under Siege: Environmental Disaster during Israel-Palestine Conflict, Suggestions and Solutions." Margalla Papers 28 (2): 78-94

A CASE FOR ENHANCING THE FRANCO-AUSTRALIAN ALLIANCE IN THE INDO-PACIFIC

In a contested Indo-Pacific region with a rising and assertive China militarily and economically, Australia must look beyond the US as the sole guarantor of its security. Australia realises the importance of maintaining the US–Australia alliance, but it must also seek other like-minded nations to ensure peace and prosperity in the region. The potential development of an enhanced Franco-Australian partnership in the Indo-Pacific presents a promising alliance against the backdrop of heightened US-China rivalry, concerns over maritime security, challenges to sovereignty and economic prosperity. Australia, as a small to medium nation in the South Pacific, must develop and expand its geostrategic partnerships. As Australia seeks to grow, expand or reinforce existing partnerships within a contested and competitive environment, the potential benefits of an enhanced Franco-Australian alliance in the Indo-Pacific are significant and worthy of careful consideration.   Bibliography Entry McCann, Edward. 2024. "A Case for Enhancing the Franco-Australian Alliance in the Indo-Pacific." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 58-74

INDIA’S GROWING STRATEGIC BEHAVIOUR IN THE INDIAN OCEAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

India’s strategic behaviour in the Indian Ocean is important, given its geographic location, economic and military power expansion, and growing regional footprint. The Indian Ocean, a critical conduit for trade and energy, with major sea lanes passing through it, is significantly influenced by India’s strategic behaviour and intentions. The mounting sea-based nuclear forces, as a crucial and survivable component of nuclear deterrence, have also emerged as a concern for assessing the state of a credible second-strike platform. Therefore, the significance of naval nuclear forces has stimulated a continual, global focus shift from land to the seas. In this context, South Asia has also developed this major component of national power in the last few decades.  This paper discusses the main features of ongoing naval build-up in India and Pakistan, the motivations and aspirations of both India and Pakistan and the ongoing debate on naval nuclear-capable developments in the Indian Ocean region. Also, how will naval nuclear developments be assessed for escalation risk and crisis stability in the maritime domain? The implications of India's naval build-up for the regional strategic environment are profound, influencing neighbouring states' and external stakeholders' policies and actions.   Bibliography Entry Rehman, Huma. 2024. "India’s Growing Strategic Behaviour in the Indian Ocean: Implications for Regional Strategic Environment." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 30-44

TAIWAN DILEMMA: A FLASHPOINT FOR THE GLOBAL PEACE

With its multilayered complexities, Taiwan is not just a contentious issue but a potential flashpoint for war between China and the United States (US). Since 1949, Taiwan’s politics has oscillated between its unique status of UNSC’s permanent membership and veto power to its present status of de facto sovereignty. Despite losing its UN membership in 1971, Taiwan maintains a de facto sovereign status, which can lead to conflict at any moment. China, the US, and Taiwan maintain conflicting views over the future status and resolution of the Taiwan issue. Taiwanese prefer independent and separate identity. China demands Taiwan’s reunification with the mainland. The US pursues an unclear policy of whether, in case of aggression from China on Taiwan, the US would defend Taiwan or not. While there has been relative peace, China’s rapid rise, Taiwan’s preference against unification, declining US deterrence, and ongoing Sino-US major power rivalry increase the likelihood of forceful unification. The US policy of “Strategic Ambiguity”—an acknowledgement of the One-China policy and commitment to Taiwan’s defence—further exacerbates the risk of war over Taiwan.   Bibliography Entry Khan, Aamir Hussain. 2024. "Taiwan Dilemma: A Flashpoint for the Global Peace." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 123-140

UNITED NATIONS PEACE OPERATIONS ON STATE-BUILDING AND GOVERNANCE IN POST-CONFLICT AFRICAN STATES: A CASE STUDY OF SOUTH SUDAN

This study examines the role of United Nations (UN) peace missions in state-building and governance when recovering from conflicts, focusing on South Sudan grappling with post-independence challenges in 2011 due to ongoing violence and political turmoil that disrupted governance efforts. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) is crucial in promoting peace and rebuilding the state structures. The study delves into the roles and shortcomings of UNMISS in fostering stability and curbing violence while bolstering governance structures. It also investigates the dynamics among the UN mission's local governance entities and international stakeholders by employing a qualitative methodology approach to shed light on achievements and hurdles, with suggestions to boost the efficiency of upcoming UN peacekeeping ventures in akin scenarios. The results emphasise the importance of collaboration between actors and domestic organisations to uphold lasting peace and governance in African nations emerging from conflict.   Bibliography Entry Minko, Abraham Ename. 2024. "United Nations Peace Operations on State-Building and Governance in Post-Conflict African States: A Case Study of South Sudan." Margalla Papers 28 (2): 33-49

IRAN’S AERIAL STRIKES: MOTIVATIONS AND PAKISTAN’S MEASURED RESPONSE

The January 16, 2024, missile and drone strike by Iran against alleged sanctuaries of Jaish al-Adl inside Pakistan’s province of Baluchistan provoked a short crisis between Islamabad and Tehran, culminating in retaliation by Pakistan on January 18, 2024. The lack of close coordination on their shared frontier, amidst severe issues of drug trafficking from Afghanistan, terrorism in Baluchistan, and Iranian concerns about infiltration, undermined a mutual understanding between these two countries. Pakistan was entirely surprised, never having been attacked by Iran before. Despite the strike during the election campaign to determine Pakistan’s next governing party and executive, Islamabad resisted retaliation until it failed to elicit a conciliatory explanation from Tehran. Iran’s attack was most likely the result of a hardline foreign policy initiative decided and implemented by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as part of its escalating conflict with Israel and the defence of the Houthis in Yemen. Following Pakistan’s measured and proportionate response, Tehran and Islamabad, encouraged by China, the US, Russia, and Türkiye, diplomatically defused the tension, and bilateral relations normalised.   Bibliography Entry Schofield, Julian and Nasir Mehmood and Behrouz Ayaz. 2024. "Iran’s Aerial Strikes: Motivations and Pakistan’s Measured Response." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 45-57

MODI’S HINDUTVA POLICY AND ITS IMPACT ON INDO-PAK RELATIONS

This research paper explores the Hindutva ideology of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by analysing its implications for Pakistan. BJP’s ascension to power led the Hindu Nationalist government to implement the Hindutva ideological rhetoric. With a substantial Muslim population living in India and rivalry with Pakistan, such policies have significant implications for the Indian Muslim community as well as for Pakistan. These Hindutva-driven policies have not only raised concern regarding minorities' rights in India, affecting Kashmiri Muslims but also raising security challenges for Pakistan. In the past decade, the legislative and executive bodies have been actively engaged in promoting this ideology, as evidenced by the amendment of national citizenship law, growing riots against Muslims, and the Indian government's policy towards Pakistan. By analysing the recent minorities-related events, this paper seeks to assess the impact of the policies of the BJP government towards the Indian Muslim community and its interaction with Pakistan.   Bibliography Entry Xiaolian, Shi and Uzma Siraj and Alla Ud Din. 2024. "Modi’s Hindutva Policy and Its Impact on Indo-Pak Relations." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 1-15

RECALIBRATING US POLICY IN SOUTH ASIA POST-AFGHANISTAN: STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

The United States of America has held a significant position in global politics as a superpower from the end of the Cold War to the present day. The geopolitics of South Asia has been of strategic importance to world powers due to their short and long-term security and economic interests. The United States (US) approach toward the region has been a cause of concern for states, particularly India and Pakistan. As US interests change, it alters its regional alliance strategies, impacting the bilateral relations of regional states. Despite being an important non-NATO ally of the US, Pakistan could not secure its vital interests during the Cold War and after 9/11, leading to a relationship marked by suspicion and mistrust. On the other hand, India, though not a Cold War ally and not a frontline state in the US campaign against terrorism, has enjoyed a special status with the US. The evolving dynamics of South Asia and China’s increasing role in the region have brought India and the US into closer cooperation, resulting in deep and widespread strategic engagement. This paper focuses on the implications of the US changing role in the region, the complexities following its withdrawal from Afghanistan, and its continued close ties with India. It also suggests that Pakistan should analyse its new security, political, and economic challenges and develop a comprehensive policy to address them appropriately.   Bibliography Entry Gul, Shereen. 2024. "Recalibrating US Policy in South Asia Post-Afghanistan: Strategic Implications for Pakistan." Margalla Papers 28 (2): 119-131