INDIA-MIDDLE EAST-EUROPE CORRIDOR (IMEC): RHETORIC, REALITIES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

This research article explores the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) to ascertain whether it is a myth or a reality. It also examines its transparency, timeliness, and primary objectives. Against the backdrop of instability in the Middle East, mainly arising from the ongoing Gaza situation, the study assesses the regional and global implications of the IMEC, considering arguments both in favour and against the initiative. Nevertheless, the problem has a similar impact on all such ventures as China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) since the successful realisation is contingent upon the stable and enabling regional environment. This exploration suffers from the challenge of access to authentic sources. Given the contemporary nature of the subject matter, this study will primarily rely on secondary literature. Employing an Intergovernmentalism theoretical approach, this research delves into the dynamics of IMEC, discussing its intended objectives and challenges. The central argument contends that a meticulous analysis of the corridor's cause and effect on Pakistan's economic and geostrategic interests is imperative. The IMEC initiative exhibits the potential of a relatively cheap system, enhancing contemporary transportation infrastructure. However, the study asserts that the IMEC presents an obvious threat to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the BRI, potentially compromising Pakistan's economic and strategic interests. The paper adopts a nuanced perspective, emphasising that IMEC and BRI contrast in strategic planning and development approaches. Should the IMEC materialise according to its envisaged plan, it will yield substantial diplomatic, strategic, and economic benefits for India. The article concludes by underscoring the challenges faced by IMEC, including coordination complexities, financial constraints for some participating nations, and potential geopolitical tensions affecting corridor operations.   Bibliography Entry Khan, Raza Ali. 2024. "India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC): Rhetoric, Realities and Implications for Pakistan." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 75-92

POST 2021 CHANGING STRATEGIC DYNAMICS IN AFGHANISTAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 changed Afghanistan's strategic dynamics. The Afghan Taliban now control the whole Afghanistan and have taken some adverse measures that affect not only Pakistan but also regional and global security. After 2021, Transnational terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and East Turkestan Islamic Movement operate in Afghanistan with greater impunity and freedom. The Afghan Taliban also welcomed India to Afghanistan after 2021 to get financial assistance and support in reconstruction and development. But India’s renewed hybrid warfare from Afghanistan has seriously jeopardised the internal security of Pakistan. Pakistan-focused groups like TTP, BLA, and ISKP suddenly got reorganised under the umbrella of India in Afghanistan. They started a vicious cycle of violence against the civil and military installations of Pakistan in Balochistan and the ex-FATA region, besides attacks on the Chinese citizens to disrupt CPEC and slow down FDI to Pakistan. This article analyses the whole debate under the regional security complex theory, which evaluates that simple physical adjacency generates more security interaction among neighbours than among states located in different areas. Adjacency is potent for security because many threats travel more easily over short distances than long ones. The RSCT aptly applies to Afghanistan’s changing strategic dynamics and regional implications, focusing on Pakistan.   Bibliography Entry Bukhari, Syed Munib Ali and Masood Ur Rehman Khattak. 2024. " Post 2021 Changing Strategic Dynamics in Afghanistan: Implications for Pakistan." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 198-210

TREADING TURBULENT WATERS: PAKISTAN’S READINESS TO THE LOOMING THREAT OF MARITIME TERRORISM

Houthis’ recent attacks on Merchant ships in the Red Sea have renewed focus on maritime terrorism. These attacks have pushed the global power centres to think seriously about this intensifying threat to international maritime trade and movement. South Asia, particularly India and Pakistan, have already faced the issue of marine terrorism, yet it has remained primarily a neglected field of enquiry, particularly in Pakistan. This paper aims to fill this void in the literature by critically analysing the threat of Maritime terrorism to Pakistan and how prepared it is to counter this problem. This paper attempts to dissect the threats that exist in the Arabian Sea and how maritime terrorism has the potential to push Pakistan and India into a new conflict, which may have grave consequences for the global community. The paper starts with an overview of maritime terrorism and how it has evolved over time and with technological advancements. This follows an analysis of marine terrorism incidents in India and Pakistan and how Pakistan has built up its organisational structure to cover the threats posed by it. It contends that Pakistan has a ready organisational structure; it requires improved inter-departmental coordination and more importantly, constitutional cover. In the end, the paper provides policy recommendations at the organisational, national and regional levels to address the issue of maritime terrorism.   Bibliography Entry Shahid, Mubashar Hassan and Rizwan Zeb. 2024. "Treading Turbulent Waters: Pakistan’s Readiness to the Looming Threat of Maritime Terrorism." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 211-225

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES (SEZS): WORKABLE STRATEGIES FOR PAKISTAN

Special Economic Zones (SEZs) form part of the industrial growth strategies of the respective countries to stimulate economic growth and community development. China has emerged as the most prosperous country in developing SEZs for long-term economic and social transformations of its people. Bangladesh, treading its path, achieved long-term foreign direct investments and developed its SEZs. Indian development of SEZs faced problems but contributed to attracting FDIs and triggering exports. SEZs Act 2016 in Pakistan laid the outlines for developing and regulating SEZs in Pakistan. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with integrated SEZs can be a potential economic growth stimulus. Critical Success Factors (CSF) like bold policy initiatives, customised designs, correct location with proficient and effective management, and institutional protocols through internal connectivity and integration can be the recipe for the success of SEZs in Pakistan.   Bibliography Entry Iqbal, Muhammad Zafar and Bashir Ahmad. 2024. "Economic and Social Development through Special Economic Zones (SEZs), Workable Strategies for Pakistan." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 180-197

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR IN GAZA: REARRANGEMENT OF REGIONAL POWERS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST

The recent Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and their persistent military campaign against each other, owing to atrocities and mass destruction, have drawn international attention to the regional politics of the Middle East. Recent regional political changes have been disrupted, such as Arab-Israel efforts to normalise relations after the Abraham Accords and the latest Saudi-Israel Peace Deal. The ongoing carnage in Gaza has pivoted Arab states’ interests away from the peace processes, thus shifting the regional as well as major powers’ alliance priorities. Iran, whose rapprochement with Saudia Arabia has begun, also warned of a pre-emptive attack against Israel should the latter invade Gaza. Most Arab states have shown solidarity with the Palestine cause; on the contrary, significant actors such as the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) have shown their support for Israel, as manifested by the veto of UNSC resolutions. From a structural realist view, as propounded by Kenneth Waltz, international politics can be explained through a system-level analysis. It highlights cause-and-effect relations that can be observed between the states, primary units, and the anarchical international structure. Keeping this in mind, such rearrangement of alliances in the Middle East indicates the prolongation and intensification of war amid anarchy in an emerging multipolar world. Moreover, the war in Gaza holds a high chance of regional spillover. In any case, the war that ignited Israel-Hamas tensions is likely to continue unless prominent actors’ mediation brings to light the root cause of the problem, which lies in the illegal occupation of Palestine.   Bibliography Entry Safdar, Maira. 2024. "Israel-Hamas War in Gaza: Rearrangement of Regional Powers and Implications for the Middle East." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 161-179

THE ENIGMA OF PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR DETERRENCE: AN ALTERNATE PERSPECTIVE

Pakistan has developed its nuclear and missile programmes primarily in response to perceived threats from India. Pakistani officials claim that these capabilities are for self-defence, aiming to deter India from initiating a war. However, Indian military strategists have consistently explored options to overcome these deterrent measures. Applying the theoretical models of the “Concept of Deterrence”, “Agreed Battles”, and “Iterated Game Theory”, existing gaps in Pakistan's understanding and projection of deterrence against India, coupled with its displayed behaviour, have been analysed. It has been found that the current pattern is bolstering confidence in the Indian leadership that the application of military instruments against Pakistan is possible and will achieve political goals. The key to addressing this issue lies in Pakistan, recognising that deterrence is ongoing. Effectively managing nuclear deterrence involves a strategic interplay of intent, capability, and communication, with a crucial emphasis on continual adaptation to maintain effectiveness.   Bibliography Entry Amin, Aezaz Aizad. 2024. "The Enigma of Pakistan's Nuclear Deterrence: An Alternate Perspective." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 109-122

PAKISTAN-RUSSIA EMERGING COOPERATION: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES

Bilateral relations between states have always been dynamic and can go in either direction. For much of history, Pakistan and Russia have remained in a contained relationship, particularly during the Cold War. However, post 9/11, due to changes in Pakistan's pro-Taliban policy, gradual ground for re-engagement has risen into prominence between Russia and Pakistan. But, because of the troubling history, both sides remained distant. However, for the past ten years, due to the change in the international order, both countries found each other in the convergence of bilateral relations. The research paper intended to employ the commercial liberalism branch of neoliberal institutionalism to evaluate emerging bilateral ties between Russia and Pakistan. Based on Immanuel Kant’s principle of universal hospitality, commercial liberalism sheds light on the importance of economic interdependence and free trade in sustaining peace. The impending challenges and compelling opportunities were discussed in this paper. The nature of bilateral relations sprouted from opportunities and challenges and was categorised into complementary and non-complementary bifurcation. Based on this division, the research has argued that the trajectory of emergent bilateral relations has ample space to grow and head upward. The study suggests that institutional mechanisms such as JMCC, JMC, and JWGs, with their potential to navigate challenges, offer reassurance in the face of potential obstacles in bilateral relations.   Bibliography Entry Ali, Usman and Tauseef Javed. 2024. "Pakistan-Russia Emerging Cooperation: Opportunities and Challenges." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 141-160

ASSESSING MILITARY NECESSITY OF AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS SYSTEMS (AWS) IN ARMED CONFLICTS: A CASE STUDY OF IRAN-ISRAEL

Rapid technological advancement has revolutionised the concept of modern warfare. The deployment of AWS has become a new high for military forces around the globe to get a comparative advantage over an adversary in any combat mission. This research aims to explain the military necessity of the Autonomous Weapons Systems (AWS) in an armed conflict. This study adopted the qualitative explanatory approach, whereas the data was collected from structured interviews, official reports, and journals. On the other hand, the case study Iran-Israel Missile Exchange has been considered to support the thematic analysis. Moreover, the study utilised the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) theory, which explains the dual impacts of using AWS in combat missions. However, the study’s findings reveal that the deployment of the AWS ensures military necessity for the forces in an armed conflict based on the tactical and strategic advantages. The deployment of the AWS enhances the overall operational effectiveness and gives forces leverage over their foes.   Bibliography Entry Shahid, Dua and Ansar Jamil. 2024. "Assessing Military Necessity of Autonomous Weapons Systems (AWS) in Armed Conflicts: A Case Study of Iran-Israel." Margalla Papers 28 (2): 95-118

SAUDI-IRAN PEACE AGREEMENT: REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS AND PROSPECTS FOR PAKISTAN

The landmark peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia brokered by China has ended years of hostility between the two regional arch-rivals. The peace agreement is expected to ease the regional tension and bring peace and stability. The warming up of relations may also lead to the end of proxy wars in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. China’s emergence as a non-hegemonic and reliable extra-regional actor/guarantor would stabilise the regional security environment. This development directly impacts Pakistan as it has good relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China. The peace agreement holds great prospects for Pakistan through investment, trade, joint production, corridor connectivity and joint consortium. However, while the prospects are bright, there are many challenges to harness these opportunities fully.   Bibliography Entry Hussain, Nazir. 2024. "Saudi-Iran Peace Agreement: Regional Implications and Prospects for Pakistan." Margalla Papers 28 (1): 16-29

DECODING BOTS OF TERRORISM IN BALOCHISTAN

Since the withdrawal of the US / North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, Balochistan has experienced a renewed wave of terrorism with improved organisational/operational capabilities and better-equipped Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF). The information environment of Balochistan has also undergone a rapid change in the last three years, with the Baloch population, especially the Baloch youth, becoming more accessible to the Baloch Nationalist Militant Organizations through a very efficient militant narrative creation dissemination system. This system of narrative creation based on the manipulation of facts and fabricated stories matched by a dynamic propaganda dissemination system is quickly replacing the facts with an alternative reality. It has also successfully replaced the national mainstream media and is becoming an alternative media choice for the Baloch population. The Baloch Nationalist Militant Organisations’ narrative has quickly gained popularity among domestic audiences and accrues credence from international media. An effective response mechanism is crucial to counter the far-reaching implications through a comprehensive and all-encompassing national effort.   Bibliography Entry Iqbal, Jehanzeb. 2024. "Decoding Bots of Terrorism in Balochistan." Margalla Papers 28 (2): 63-77