Демографски профил младог становништва Србије

Ова публикација објављена је уз финансијску помоћ Европске уније. За садржину ове публикације искључиво је одговоран Републички завод за статистику и та садржина нипошто не изражава званичне ставове Европске уније

Сезоналност рађања, фетални губици и температура ваздуха у региону Србија-север

The seasonality of births in Serbia shows a pattern in which the largest number of children are born during late summer and early autumn, placing the largest part of conceptions at the transition from one calendar year to another, which is not the case in the Serbia-North region. Taking into account the seasonality of births, we will try to estimate the distribution of conceptions on a weekly basis during the period 2015-2020. However, a special contribution of this paper will be observing of variations in the number of conceptions and births in parallel with variations in the average weekly air temperature by administrative districts in the Serbia-North region. The ratio between the number of conceptions during a calendar week with days of a certain average air temperature and live births that occur after 30-42 weeks later represents the degree of reproductive success indicating the level of fetal losses. Many recent studies indicate that there is a high correlation between the average weekly air temperature and clinically unregistered fetal losses that occur in the earliest stages of pregnancy. This effect is greatest in the first days after conception, potentially indicating the influence of an increase in air temperature on the occurrence of a conception error. The paper analyzes the relationship between changes in the number of days in five temperature ranges and changes in the number of pregnancies and live births as a positive pregnancy outcome. The results indicate that temperature extremes reduce the likelihood of a positive reproductive outcome. The expected increase in air temperatures and the occurrence of temperature extremes, under the influence of climate change, could further reduce the level of fertility in the Serbia-North region due to the specific seasonality of births and the large number of conceptions that occur during periods of particular temperature risk.Сезоналност рађања у Србији испољава такав образац да се највише деце рађа током касног лета и ране јесени, смештајући највећи део зачећа на преласку из једне у другу календарску годину, што није случај у региону Србија-север. Узимајући у обзир сезоналитет рађања покушаћемо да проценимо дистрибуцију зачећа на недељном нивоу током периода 2015-2020. Међутим, оно што би могло да представља посебан допринос овог рада јесте приказ варијација броја зачећа и рађања паралелно са варијацијама у просечној недељној температури ваздуха по управним областима у региону Србија–север. Однос између броја зачећа током календарске недеље са данима одређене просечне температуре ваздуха и живорођења која се након 30-42 недеље касније остваре, представља степен репродуктивног успеха указујући на ниво феталних губитака. Многе студије новијег датума указују да постоји висока корелација између просечне недељне температуре ваздуха и клинички нерегистрованих феталних губитака који се дешавају у најранијој фази трудноће. Овај утицај је највећи у првим данима након зачећа, потенцијално указујући на утицај пораста температуре ваздуха на појаву грешке у зачећу. У раду је анализирана веза између промена у броју дана у пет температурних опсега и промена у броју трудноћа и живорођења као позитивног исхода трудноће. Резултати указују да температурни екстреми смањују вероватноћу за позитиван репродуктивни исход. Очекивани пораст температура ваздуха и јављања температурних екстрема, под утицајем климатских промена, могли би додатно снизити ниво фертилитета у региону Србија-север услед специфичне сезоналности рађања и великог броја зачећа која се дешавају у периодима нарочитог температурног ризика

Prostorno-demografska organizacija naselja Boka

U savremenim pristupima proučavanja naselja problem prostorno-demografske organizacije naselja sagledava se sa aspekta unutrašnje organizacije, kao i organizacije naselja u mreži naselja. U radu se analizira prostorno-demografska organizacija naselja Boka, od 14. veka do danas, na osnovu analize statističkih izvora i relevantne literature. Naselje Boka se nalazi u Srednjobanatskoj oblasti i pripada opštini Sečanj. Prema popisu iz 2022. godine u naselju je bilo 1143 stanovnika. Na prostorno-demografsku problematiku, koja zauzima značajno mesto u savremenim geografskim istraživanjima, bitno su uticali fizičko-geografski i antropogeni faktori. Oni su tokom naseobinske istorije Boke imale dinamičan karakter, s tim da su najitenzivniji od 90–ih godina 20. veka. Težište istraživanja predstavlja prikaz opštih i posebnih zakonitosti koje su imale presudan uticaj na teritorijalni razmeštaj naselja Boka, kao i njegovu demografsku, morfološku i funkcionalnu strukturu.Urednik: Vladimir Čavra

Innovative approache to forest management in the context of the sustainable development goals

The world and Europe face interlinked challenges that will intensify in the coming decades: increasing demand for food, water, materials and energy while mitigating and adapting to climate change and reversing environmental degradation, including biodiversity loss, nutrient emissions and land degradation. Although forest resources in Serbia are an important resource for economic growth, especially in rural areas, the traditional approach to their management and utilization is still predominant. This approach is characterized by its reliance on timber as the primary forest product, while other forest products are largely neglected and their economic valuation is often non-existent. In addition, a certain amount of wood biomass is left in the forest even though it could be economically exploited or offered to the market with minimal investment in infrastructure and technological solutions that would allow it to be used more effectively. Tackling these major challenges while promoting social, economic and environmental prosperity requires an innovative approach. Continuous transfer of know-how methods, capacity building in the field of forest management through the application of GIS and remote sensing technologies, climate smart forestry and the concept of circular bioeconomy is a possible way to improve the current situation in forestry and achieve some of the sustainable development goals

Precipitation during the vegetation period in Central Serbia over 70 years

In this study, the trend for a category of variables, that is, for the total average annual amount of precipitation for the vegetation period (P-VP) from April to October is presented. Moreover, with the help of Geographic Information System (GIS) numerical analysis, geospatial distribution of the obtained results on the territory of the Central Serbia is described. The main objective of this study is the possible changes in trends for the total average annual amount of precipitation for the vegetation period in the observed area. In terms of methodology, trend testing was conducted using the Mann-Kendall trend test (M-K), trend equation, and trend magnitude. The data used for the necessary analysis were taken from the Meteorological Yearbooks of the Republic Hydrometeorological Institute of Serbia, with a total of 24 meteorological stations, for the observed time period from 1949 to 2018. A total of 24 time series were analyzed. The average annual amount of precipitation for the vegetation period of the observed area is 427.6 mm. The values range from 362.3 mm to 625.5 mm. The lowest value was recorded in Nis, while the highest value was recorded in Zlatibor. Based on the obtained results, a statistically significant positive trend was recorded in 2 time series, whereas in the remaining 22 time series there was no trend. Furthermore, the results obtained by the trend equation, and trend magnitude indicate a slight increase in the total average annual precipitation in 21 time series and a decrease was recorded in the remaining 3 time series. A decrease in the average annual amount of precipitation for the vegetation period was recorded in three cities, namely: Jagodina (-15.9 mm), Bujanovac (-4.6 mm), and Zajecar (-0.5 mm). Comprehending the interaction between precipitation and vegetation period is crucial for implementing adaptation and mitigation measures in terrestrial ecosystems. The preliminary findings of this study can offer a technical foundation and valuable reference for water resource and sustainable ecological management strategies in the Republic of Serbia, benefiting policymakers and stakeholders involved

Bor and Majdanpek – Report on the Results of the Survey Research

This report presents the findings of a survey conducted within the MINIPART project – Improving Participation in Spatial Planning of Mining Areas. The survey was carried out in the City of Bor and the Municipality of Majdanpek on a random, two-stage sample of 300 respondents. The purpose of the research was to explore local residents’ perceptions of participation in planning processes, focusing on their behaviour, understanding, engagement, and attitudes toward specific participatory methods and procedures. The aim was to identify which participation methods are most suitable and acceptable to the local population. The results indicate a significant level of disappointment and distrust among respondents toward all actors and participatory processes. Only a small number of participants had taken part in public hearings. The most common reason for non-participation was the belief that individual voices are not heard and do not influence outcomes. Respondents expressed a preference for using the internet to obtain information and share opinions. Furthermore, favoured participation methods tended to be those that respondents were already familiar with, particularly those involving face-to-face communication. These findings will be compared in the following stages of the research with expert opinions on participatory methods and procedures. The final outcome will include recommendations for improving participation practices in the mining areas of Serbia. The insights gained are expected to apply to other contexts as well

GIS-Based Spatial Modeling of Soil Erosion and Wildfire Susceptibility Using VIIRS and Sentinel-2 Data: A Case Study of Šar Mountains National Park, Serbia

Soil erosion and wildfires are frequent natural disasters that threaten the environment. Identifying and zoning susceptible areas are crucial for the implementation of preventive measures. The Šar Mountains are a national park with rich biodiversity and various climate zones. Therefore, in addition to protecting the local population from natural disasters, special attention must be given to preserving plant and animal species and their habitats. The first step in this study involved collecting and organizing the data. The second step applied geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) to evaluate the intensity of erosion using the erosion potential model (EPM) and the wildfire susceptibility index (WSI). The EPM involved the analysis of four thematic maps, and a new index for wildfires was developed, incorporating nine natural and anthropogenic factors. This study introduces a novel approach by integrating the newly developed WSI with the EPM, offering a comprehensive framework for assessing dual natural hazards in a single region using advanced geospatial tools. The third step involved obtaining synthetic maps and comparing the final results with satellite images and field research. For the Šar Mountains (Serbia), high and very high susceptibility to wildfires was identified in 21.3% of the total area. Regarding soil erosion intensity, about 8.2% of the area is affected by intensive erosion, while excessive erosion is present in 2.2% of the study area. The synthetic hazard maps provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the erosive process and areas susceptible to wildfires. The final results can be useful for decision-makers, spatial planners, and emergency management services in implementing anti-erosion measures and improving forest management in the study area

Improving participation in spatial planning of mining areas - formal participatory methods in urban and spatial planning in Europe

Development in areas with extensive mineral extraction brings significant changes that especially affect the local population, both positively and negatively. The most important impacts include job creation, higher income, dependence on a single industry, environmental harm, health issues, and the need for (involuntary) resettlement. Mining companies that fail to prioritize corporate social responsibility and foster strong relationships with local communities often face a lack of public support. Transparent decision making through high public engagement and participatory planning process is therefore of great importance. The aim of this research is to identify formal participatory methods applied in the process of urban and regional planning, with focus on community participation. Through extensive analysis of legislation of European countries, we have identified the most commonly used methods and techniques. They have several advantages, but could be supplemented with informal methods for a better inclusion of attitudes and opinion of local community and other stakeholders

Factors Influencing Orchid Species Richness in the Central Balkans: The Importance of Belowground Organ Types

The Balkan Peninsula is considered one of the most important centres of orchid diversity in Europe. However, the patterns of orchid species richness in the Central Balkans have not been sufficiently studied so far. The aim of this study was, therefore, to identify the centres of orchid diversity and the factors that influence the spatial variation in orchid species richness in the Central Balkans. For the analyses, the area of the Central Balkans was divided into 10 × 10 km grid cells. The environmental variables determined for each grid cell and used in the analyses were altitude, bioclimatic variables, geological substrates and habitat types. A random forest (RF) analysis was used to identify the environmental predictors most strongly associated with species richness. In addition to the total number of taxa, orchids with three belowground organ types were analysed separately: (a) rhizomatous orchids, (b) orchids with palmately lobed and fusiform tubers (“palmate tuberous orchids”) and (c) orchids with spherical or ovoid tubers (“ovoid tuberous orchids”). In the Central Balkans, 54 orchid species and subspecies have been recorded, and the most important centres of diversity are the Tara, Zvijezda, Jadovnik and Zlatar Mountains and the Ovčar-Kablar Gorge. In general, two groups of grid cells with the largest number of orchid taxa, i.e., hotspots, stood out: (1) grid cells with a large altitudinal range and (2) grid cells occupied by gorges and ravines. The most important gradients influencing orchid species richness are specific habitat types and altitudinal ranges, while climatic factors and geological substrates are less important. The most important factors affecting the richness of total and rhizomatous orchids are altitudinal range and habitat types (Abieti-Fagenion, Ostryo-Carpinion orientalis and Pinion nigrae forests), highlighting the important role of habitat heterogeneity. The maximum altitude, percentage of Abieti-Fagenion and Vaccinio-Picetea forests and the minimum value of the mean temperature of the driest quarter are the most important factors for determining the richness of palmate tuberous orchids, whereas the percentage of xero-thermophilous habitat types (Ostryo-Carpinion orientalis, Asplenietea trichomanis and Pinion nigrae) has the greatest influence on the richness of ovoid tuberous orchids. These results confirm the hypothesis concerning the origin and development of underground organs in orchids, emphasising that palmate tuberous orchids are best adapted to cold and humid habitat conditions, whereas ovoid tuberous orchids have the ability to grow in habitats with very warm and dry conditions. This study provides a good basis for better orchid conservation planning and underlines the importance of belowground strategies as a feature of orchid life history that should be considered when studying patterns of orchid diversity

Effect of climate and land use change on discharge in the Betwa River basin, India, using SWAT based on CMIP6 and the Land Change Modeler model projections

Assessment of hydrological flux under climate and land use change is critical. For the Ken-Betwa river-linking project underway in central India, a pre-assessment of land use land cover (LULC) and climate change effects on the hydrology of the Betwa River basin becomes essential. Land Change Modeler suggests a sustained expansion in open forests and built-up land. Agricultural land area shows a decline for 2030 and 2050. Model performance measures such as Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, R2 , PBIAS, and RSR for calibration (1987–1999)/validation (2000– 2018) were 0.66, 0.67, 1.2, 0.59, and 0.64, 0.65, 9.2, and 0.60, respectively, based on the historical climate (1984 2018) and land use map. SSP245 scenarios (MRI-ESM2-0 and ACCESS-ESM1-5) and LULC 1990, 2010, 2030, and 2050 show a decreasing trend in the average annual discharge. Average annual river discharge declined with the MRI-ESM2-0 model under SSP245 and LULC 2010 scenarios, while a more optimal decline was observed under SSP245 and LULC 1990 scenarios. There is a substantial decline in average annual river discharge with ACCESS-ESM1-5 under SSP245 and LULC 2050, whereas the least projected decline is under SSP245 and LULC 1990. Both models exhibited a decreasing trend in average annual discharge at the outlet from mid-century