The Pakistan Development Review
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Review Of The Pakistan Economy (Food And Agriculture)
No full textDuring the period under review, from October 1960 to March
1961, prices of wheat at Lyallpur (West Pakistan) recorded a small net
increase while prices of rice at Dacca (East Pakistan) registered an
appreciable net decline. (See Table below) Wheat prices at Lyallpur
showed a persistent tendency to rise owing partly to drought conditions
and partly to withholding of stocks by traders in expectation of
shortages of foodgrains following enlarged shipments to the cyclone
affected areas of East Pakistan. Prices touched a peak of Rs. 17/12/-
18/14/- in the middle of January from Rs. 15/8/- 17/- per maund at the
close of September 1960. The continued release of government stocks at a
fixed rate of Rs. 16/- per maund through 250 centres was a major factor
for the reversal in the rising trend in prices. The onset of winter
rains also had a favourable impact on prices. As a result, there was a
marked decline in prices which closed finally at Rs. 16/- to 17/- at the
end of March 1961. Meanwhile, the final estimate of wheat crop for
1959-60 placed output at about 0.6 per cent higher at 3,876,000 tons
compared with the preceding year, the area under wheat cultivation
having risen by 1.6 per cent to 12,193,000 acres. However, the first
forecast of wheat crop for 1960-61 places the cultivated area at
10,428,000 acres or a decline of 16.0 per cent as against the first
forecast for 1959-60
A Measure of Economic Growth in East and in West Pakistan
No full textIt is sometimes said that "national planning will simply have
no meaning if it completely ignores the economic disparities between the
two wings and fails to evolve a sensible pattern of regional planning"2.
The lack of much essential data on a regional basis, however, renders
any precise estimate of the relative growth rates almost impossible.
Data either are not available or are inadequate on such important
variables as production, income, consumption and trade, so that even a
correct evaluation of past development efforts is not possible. The
implications of such a situation for future planning are not difficult
to understand. In this article an attempt is made to estimate the
absorption of specified commodities in East and West Pakistan
separately3. This will indicate the pattern of consumption and also give
a rough idea about the growth rate of the two wings. With this purpose
in view, quantity indices of absorption are prepared for each wing
separately, taking data on availability of goods and prices from the
Institute's monograph on Inflation. The quantity indi¬ces, however, are
not of course strictly comparable with national income estimates because
of the difference in coverage of the two series. National income data
include government, services, trade, etc., while the quantity indices
cover only specified goods available for each region
The Dangers of Monetary Policy in Agrarian Economies
No full textThe central banks of underdeveloped economies are frequently
ad¬monished for their apparently permissive attitude toward inflation.
Where large government deficits are financed by the creation of
ever-larger money balances in the economy, this criticism is quite apt.
But the strictures often extend to those central banks which, in a
situation where prices have already risen for reasons beyond their
control,1 are reluctant to refuse the accom¬modating expansion of the
money supply. With the argument that the central bank can force prices
back to their previous levels merely by insisting that the money supply
does not increase, central bankers and their supporters have seldom
disagreed. They justify permissive after-the-fact monetary expansions on
the grounds that driving the price level back down would have
unfortunate side effects.
Balance of Payments Problems of Pakistan
No full textThis study seeks to analyse developments in Pakistan's balance
of payments during the period 1948-60. The first section attempts to
give a definition of the payments problem and briefly discusses the
various causes of balance of payments disequilibrium in the light of the
accepted theory. Against the theoretical background thus provided,
Sections II to VII review the major phases in Pakistan's balance of
payments and highlight developments. The final section summarises the
main conclusion emerging from the study
