Globalization, ESG Investing and Emerging Market Cost of Capital

We assess the impact of investors’ ESG preferences on firms’ cost of capital in an international context. By matching onshore and offshore bonds from the same issuer and using the opening of the Chinese bond market as a quasi-experiment, we control for time-varying issuer characteristics that potentially correlate with ESG scores. Our findings reveal that issuers in the top ESG quartile experience an 8.8% reduction in borrowing costs compared to those in the bottom quartile, despite modest overseas capital flows. These results highlight the role of heterogeneousinvestor preferences and demand elasticity when evaluating the impact of ESG investing

Central and Eastern Europe HORIZON

本期看点：匈牙利作家拉斯洛·卡撒兹纳霍凯获诺贝尔文学奖欧洲政治观察人士：捷克候任总理巴比什将务实对待欧盟和乌克兰问题惠誉上调斯洛文尼亚国家评级苹果公司进入罗马尼亚等中东欧能源市

Central and Eastern Europe HORIZON

本期看点：惠誉提高斯洛文尼亚评级展望保加利亚总统：援乌无益，战火难熄中东欧遭受特朗普关税政策冲击中东欧国家购买力平价排

Employment Stability and Firm Performance Over Time:The Moderating Effect of Industry Volatility

This study investigated how employment stability affects firm performance over time. While some scholars have identified the strategic benefits of employment stability, others have emphasized its associated costs. We theorized a temporal perspective to reconcile these contrasting views. Using publicly traded firms in Compustat North America from 1985 to 2018, we found that employment stability negatively impacts current firm performance but benefits a firm's long-term performance. Additionally, we found that the dynamic effects of employment stability on firm performance become more pronounced when a firm's industry faces higher volatility. Our study provides an important theoretical framework for reconciling seemingly conflicting arguments regarding the impact of employment stability on firm performance. Empirically, we demonstrate the contrasting effects of employment stability on firms’ current and long-term performance and highlight the boundary conditions of industry volatility in these relationships

Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP): A Distribution-Free Statistical and Machine Learning Framework for Adaptive Risk Forecasting

We propose Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP), a novel framework for constructing prediction intervals in financial time-series with guaranteed finite-sample validity. TCP integrates quantile regression with a conformal calibration layer that adapts online via a decaying learning rate. This hybrid design bridges statistical and machine learning paradigms, enabling TCP to accommodate non-stationarity, volatility clustering, and regime shifts which are hallmarks of real-world asset returns, without relying on rigid parametric assumptions. We benchmark TCP against established methods including GARCH, Historical Simulation, and static Quantile Regression across equities (S&P 500), cryptocurrency (Bitcoin), and commodities (Gold). Empirical results show that TCP consistently delivers sharper intervals with competitive or superior coverage, particularly in high-volatility regimes. Our study underscores TCP's strength in navigating the coverage-sharpness tradeoff, a central challenge in modern risk forecasting. Overall, TCP offers a distribution-free, adaptive, and interpretable alternative for financial uncertainty quantification, advancing the interface between statistical inference and machine learning in finance

管理会计：企业战略的“定海神针”与“智能导航”

<正>许定波：傅总您好，很高兴您能接受《中国管理会计》的对话邀请。您在几家重要央企担任过总会计师，对于在企业战略管理中如何发挥管理会计作用的见解与创新实践也备受行业瞩目，为众多企业的财务管理与战略发展提供了宝贵借鉴。在我们开始讨论一些专业话题之前，首先请您简要介绍一下您的职业经历