Fears of Redistribution, Decentralization and Secession: Evidence from Bolivia’s Referendum for Departmental Autonomy

Recent years have witnessed strong movements toward decentralization and secession. The former Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovaquia and Serbia and Montenegro have disintegrated. Movements for regional autonomy and even independence have gained larger support in Bolivia, Canada, Spain, France and Italy. What is the importance of redistributive politics in explaining decentralization and secession outcomes in a democratic polity? This paper attempts to answer this question building a simple rational choice model in which individuals’ preferences over alternative institutional regimes are derived from their economic and social consequences. The model predicts that, in a national referendum, relatively rich (poor) people in relatively rich regions and relatively poor (rich) people in the relatively poor regions will support (oppose) decentralization and secession. As a consequence, relatively rich (poor) regions will have an absolute majority supporting (opposing) decentralization. The national outcome will depend on the gaps between regional and national median incomes and the sizes of the population in each region. An important quality of the model is that it has sharp quantitative implications. Given information on regional and national median incomes, and the proportion of an electoral pool whose income is below these levels, the model predicts the proportion of the electoral poll that will support or oppose decentralization. I use data from Bolivia’s referendum for departmental autonomy and estimates of per-capita household income indicators to contrast observed vs. predicted voting outcomes. The model accounts for almost 2/3 of the variation in voting behavior. The fit is surprisingly good in light of model’s simplicity. This result suggests that fears of redistribution play an important role in shaping decentralization and secession outcomes, at least in the Bolivian case.political economy, median voter, decentralization, redistribution, sucession, Bolivia, referendum, departamental autonom

Using the FIDELIO Model to Estimate the Effects of the Tax Reform 2015-16 on Net Output

We estimate the effects of the Austrian tax reform of 2015-16 by using the econometric input-output model FIDELIO, which features an in-depth treatment of both private and public households' revenues, expenditures, budgets and consumption as well as price transmission. According to the simulations, the reform will, to some extent, succeed in boosting domestic demand, with private consumption rising by almost € 2.5 billion; both net output and GDP will rise perceptibly, by € 290 million and € 1.35 billion, respectively. Among the sectors that profit most from the proposed changes in the tax regime are those with high income elasticities (and low import shares): real estate activities, (retail) trade, financial services. The food production sector apart, manufacturing will experience very modest gains only, as a large share of its products is imported. High income elasticity, however, leads to moderate gains for hotels and restaurants, in spite of a higher value-added tax on hotel services and the upward pressure on prices due to fraud-preventing measures (especially the obligation to introduce cash registers).Steuersimulation, Input-Output-Modell, Wertschöpfun

Micro-Level estimation of child Malnutrition in Jamaica

This document presents village-level estimates of child malnutrition indicators in Jamaica based on small area estimation techniques (Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (2000, 2002, 2003, 2004) and Fujii (2005)). Our village level estimates of child malnutrition take advantage of the detailed anthropometric data available in the 2002 Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions and the comprehensive coverage of the 2001 Population and Housing Census. Altough we estimate underweight, wasting and stunting indicators of malnutrition, we focus on the latter as a potential targeting instrument for three reasons. First, the incidence of stunting is higher than the incidence of underweight or wasting. Second, height-for-age deficits indicate past or chronic inadequacies of nutrition and/or chronic illness while weight-for-age and weight-for-height deficits are more commonly used to monitor short term changes in malnutrition and screen children at risk. Finally, height-for-age regressions have better fit than the ones for weight-for-age or weight-for-height. We find considerable variation of stunting indicators atat both the parish and contituency-level. Almost half of the contituencies have higher incidence of stunting than the national average and around 10 percent of the contituencies more than double the national incidence. This makes our mapping an interesting alternative for targeting nutritional interventions to those communities that appear to need them the most.micro level, micro levels, estimation, child, malnutrition, nutrition, bolivia, income, total expenditure, malnutrition, povert

Do federal deficits motivate regional fiscal (im)balances? Evidence from the Spanish case.

This paper studies the vertical and horizontal interactions existing between federal and state governments in terms of public deficits. We estimate a fiscal reaction function for the Spanish regions over the period 1995-2010 paying special attention to the impact of federal fiscal stance on the state fiscal imbalances. Our results indicate that higher public deficits of the central government encourage bigger fiscal imbalances at state level. This vertical interaction is interpreted in the context of yardstick competition models. We also find a significant impact of fiscal decisions taken by governments at the same tier of decision on a specific state.public deficit, intergovernmental relations, yardstick competition

¿Cuál es el Costo de la Discriminación Contra el Indígena en Bolivia?

La discriminación, en términos generales, puede definirse como la proporción de la desigualdad de resultados que no puede explicarse sino por prejuicios en contra del grupo discriminado. Cuando la desigualdad de resultados está originada en desigualdad de derechos se puede hablar de discriminación de jure y cuando está originada en desigualdad de oportunidades se puede hablar de discriminación de facto. La discriminación en contra del indígena (y de la mujer) existe y persiste en diversos ámbitos de la vida de una persona: el económico, el social y el político, entre otros. Sin embargo, no cabe duda que la discriminación en el mercado laboral es la que tiene consecuencias más graves sobre el bienestar de los grupos discriminados, máxime cuando más del 80% del ingreso familiar de los hogares proviene del ingreso laboral de sus miembros. El presente documento analiza la contribución de las diferencias en características productivas, las diferencias en la distribución de puestos de trabajo (segregación ocupacional) y las diferencias en la distribución geográfica de la población (segregación residencial) a explicar la desigualdad de ingresos por hora promedio entre grupos poblacionales definidos por etnia y sexo en Bolivia. Adicionalmente, el documento analiza la magnitud de la discriminación de facto en remuneración contra el indígena y contra la mujer en Bolivia, i.e. la proporción de la desigualdad en ingresos laborales por hora que no puede explicarse por diferencias en capital humano, segregación ocupacional o segregación residencial. Contrariamente a los trabajos que sugieren priorizar única y exclusivamente políticas educativas para reducir las brechas en bienestar entre no-indígenas e indígenas, nuestros resultados sugieren que es necesario complementar políticas educativas con políticas laborales que busquen igualar las oportunidades entre no-indígenas e indígenas, tanto en términos de remuneración como en términos de acceso a ocupaciones de alta productividad. Una vez que se controla por el efecto de la segregación ocupacional y la segregación residencial, las diferencias en ingreso laboral por hora entre no-indígenas e indígenas que pueden atribuirse a discriminación en remuneración son mayores a las que pueden atribuirse a diferencias en características productivas observables. Por tanto, aún cuando se eliminarán las brechas en dotaciones de capital humano entre no indígenas e indígenas, persistirían diferencias significativas en ingreso laboral por hora entre indígenas y no-indígenas. En otras palabras, la eliminación de las diferencias en acumulación de capital humano no eliminaría la desigualdad en ingreso laboral por hora.Costo, discriminacion, Bolivia, indigena, indigenas, desigualdad, bienestar, mercado laboral, remuneracion

РЕАЛЬНЫЙ СЕКТОР ЭКОНОМИКИ: ФАКТОРЫ И ТЕНДЕНЦИИ В АПРЕЛЕ 2015 Г.

По данным Росстата, ВВП в I квартале 2015 г. составил 98,1% от показателя I квартала 2014 г. Нега- тивное влияние на экономическую динамику в текущем году оказывает сокращение внутреннего спро- са и усиление спада потребительского рынка. Индекс оборота розничной торговли в апреле 2015 г. составил 90,2% и инвестиции в основной капитал 95,2% по сравнению с аналогичным периодом пре- дыдущего года. Ситуация в экономике осложняется падением реальной заработной платы на 13,2% и ростом безработицы на 8,4% по сравнению с апрелем 2014 г.Реальный секто

The Political Economy of European Integration

This paper discusses the process of European institutional integration from a political-economy perspective, linking the long-standing political debate on the nature of the European project to the recent economic literature on political integration and disintegration. First, we introduce the fundamental trade-off between economies of scale associated with larger political unions and the costs from sharing public goods and policies among more heterogeneous populations, and examine the implications of the trade-off for European integration. Second, we describe the two main political theories of European integration - intergovernmentalism and functionalism - and argue that both theories capture important aspects of European integration, but that neither view provides a complete and realistic interpretation of the process. Finally, we critically discuss the actual process of European institutional integration and its limits, from its beginnings after World War II to the current crisis

Share of the Cold Progression in the Overall Progression of the Austrian Personal Income Tax

In recent years, revenues from personal income taxation in Austria have increased substantially. This has provoked an intense debate of the effects of cold progression. A simulation of the revenues from personal income taxation accounting for the impact of inflation for 2010-2013 shows that € 4.6 billion or about 4.1 percent of the overall revenues can be attributed to cold progression. Our analysis also suggests that, even in times of weak real wage growth, substantially less than half of the increase of tax revenues is due to cold progression.Einkommensteuer, kalte Progression, Inflation, Steuereinnahme

Análisis de las políticas de gasto público en los Presupuestos Generales del Estado para 1993

La progresiva internacionalización de nuestra economía así como la crisis económica en la que se encuentra inmersa, imponen restricciones a la política presupuestaria. Los compromisos que se derivan de nuestra pertenencia al sistema Monetario Europeo y del proceso de construcción de la Unión Económica y Monetaria, condicionan los márgenes de actuación de las políticas monetaria y cambiaria, y dan un mayor protagonismo a la política presupuestaria. Por ello, los Presupuestos Generales del Estado deberán contribuir a la consecución de un crecimiento sostenido y estable, conciliando el equilibrio entre la necesidad de aproximación a los niveles de desarrollo de los países comunitarios y la exigencia de un control del gasto público, algo muy necesario en la situación de crisis económica por la que está pasando en estos momentos la economía española.Gasto Público; Presupuestos Generales del Estado

FOOD CONSUMPTION AND SAFETY INCIDENTS IN ROMANIA

The present paper proposes an analysis of the Avian and Swine Flu’s effects on meat consumption in Romania. The intense media coverage of the two epidemics, the considerable funds allocated to population vaccination and disease eradication, the duration of the outbreak make the two diseases comparable in point of duration and spreading. The research highlighted a major effect of the Avian Flu on poultry meat consumption on the Romanian market, although the shock was a temporary one, as poultry meat consumption came back to its initial values in a short period of time. The Swine Flu didn’t have a significant impact on the number of animals or on pork consumption. Both epidemics led to important financial losses. The sums allocated for disease eradication came from government contributions or from financial aids provided by the World Bank or the EU.food, consumption, safety, incident