Prognostic uncertainty and accountability, moral uncertainty and ‘value lock-in’: Three epistemological challenges for long-term governance and their ethical implications

This article discusses long-term governance from an epistemological and ethical perspective. It focuses on three epistemological challenges for long-term governance and their profound ethical implications. The first challenge lies at the intersection of prognostic uncertainty about the distant future and the assignment of accountability to policymakers in the present. On what basis should policymakers be held accountable for their decisions if the long-term effects are hardly predictable given the knowledge available at the time of decision? The second challenge is moral uncertainty—not uncertainty about facts, but about which ethical theory to follow in decision-making and how to interpret it. Finally, the concept of ‘value lock-in’ and its epistemological challenges in relation to long-term governance are explained. The article concludes that such challenges deserve considerable further research attention because of their implications for effective long-term governance.This article discusses long-term governance from an epistemological and ethical perspective. It focuses on three epistemological challenges for long-term governance and their profound ethical implications. The first challenge lies at the intersection of prognostic uncertainty about the distant future and the assignment of accountability to policymakers in the present. On what basis should policymakers be held accountable for their decisions if the long-term effects are hardly predictable given the knowledge available at the time of decision? The second challenge is moral uncertainty—not uncertainty about facts, but about which ethical theory to follow in decision-making and how to interpret it. Finally, the concept of ‘value lock-in’ and its epistemological challenges in relation to long-term governance are explained. The article concludes that such challenges deserve considerable further research attention because of their implications for effective long-term governance

Critical perspectives in technology assessment: On the relevance of care for sustainability transformations

In the introduction to the Special topic, we highlight the importance of exploring concepts, approaches, and practices of care in order to give new impetus to technology assessment and to unlock the potential of such approaches for a socio-ecological transformation toward critical-emancipatory sustainability. The introduction also contains a brief description of each article.In the introduction to the Special topic, we highlight the importance of exploring concepts, approaches, and practices of care in order to give new impetus to technology assessment and to unlock the potential of such approaches for a socio-ecological transformation toward critical-emancipatory sustainability. The introduction also contains a brief description of each article

Practices and concepts of care in sustainability transformations: Critical perspectives in technology assessment

The aim of this TATuP Special topic is to present new research and experience with careconcepts, approaches and practices in the context of sustainability transformations and thusto provide new impetus to technology assessment (TA). We therefore invite scholars to presentand discuss the empirical value of different concepts of care in critically assessing the role oftechnologies in the appropriation and economic valorization of nature and related regulatoryissues in sustainability transformations. The aim of this TATuP Special topic is to present new research and experience with careconcepts, approaches and practices in the context of sustainability transformations and thusto provide new impetus to technology assessment (TA). We therefore invite scholars to presentand discuss the empirical value of different concepts of care in critically assessing the role oftechnologies in the appropriation and economic valorization of nature and related regulatoryissues in sustainability transformations.&nbsp

An approach for prioritizing types of TA-knowledge for long-term governance of mobility

Several new technologies are expected to unfold their transformative potential in the mobility sector in the coming decades. Examples include electric vehicles (EVs), automated vehicles (AVs), or blockchain technology. Long-term governance must take these innovations into account, supported by knowledge from technology assessment (TA). A transparent and comprehensible choice of TA methods is of utmost importance, especially when it comes to long-term strategic decisions that may influence the direction of socio-technical transitions. This article proposes a typology of innovations in the mobility sector that helps justify and legitimize the prioritization of TA knowledge and methods.Several new technologies are expected to unfold their transformative potential in the mobility sector in the coming decades. Examples include electric vehicles (EVs), automated vehicles (AVs), or blockchain technology. Long-term governance must take these innovations into account, supported by knowledge from technology assessment (TA). A transparent and comprehensible choice of TA methods is of utmost importance, especially when it comes to long-term strategic decisions that may influence the direction of socio-technical transitions. This article proposes a typology of innovations in the mobility sector that helps justify and legitimize the prioritization of TA knowledge and methods

Long-term transition governance and regional innovation cultures: A comparative perspective

Many regions face pressures to embark on economic, technological, social, and ecological transitions, which often challenge existing regional identities and governance approaches. This paper examines how two regions – the Rhenish Region, affected by the lignite phase-out, and Heilbronn-Franken, confronted with digitalization and global competition in its industrial “Mittelstand” – reconcile long-term transition governance and regional innovation pressures. Despite distinct challenges, both regions share a top-down governance approach, a focus on education and R&D, corporatist actor constellations, dedicated technology implementation strategies, and an emphasis on stability. Within these similarities, socio-economic and cultural differences exist; however, the similarities suggest a mutual learning potential. We propose two levels of reflexivity in long-term governance and argue that these commonalities should be used in national or global strategies for greater inclusivity and effectiveness.Many regions face pressures to embark on economic, technological, social, and ecological transitions, which often challenge existing regional identities and governance approaches. This paper examines how two regions – the Rhenish Region, affected by the lignite phase-out, and Heilbronn-Franken, confronted with digitalization and global competition in its industrial “Mittelstand” – reconcile long-term transition governance and regional innovation pressures. Despite distinct challenges, both regions share a top-down governance approach, a focus on education and R&D, corporatist actor constellations, dedicated technology implementation strategies, and an emphasis on stability. Within these similarities, socio-economic and cultural differences exist; however, the similarities suggest a mutual learning potential. We propose two levels of reflexivity in long-term governance and argue that these commonalities should be used in national or global strategies for greater inclusivity and effectiveness

Navigating the future: Strategies for the long-term governance of socio-technical change

Long-term governance (LTG) addresses complex, enduring socio-technical challenges such as climate change and nuclear waste management. It requires framework conditions that go beyond short-term political cycles and promote a culture of foresight and collective stewardship. In an analytical framework developed for LTG, four key elements are identified: reflexivity, anticipation, adaptation, and deliberation. Contributions to this Special topic provide insights into LTG approaches in different contexts, highlighting participatory mechanisms for democratic accountability and ethical decision making. The articles explore the complexity of LTG and the tension between long-term objectives and immediate political pressures, thus contributing to the advancement of LTG theory and knowledge base.Long-term governance (LTG) addresses complex, enduring socio-technical challenges such as climate change and nuclear waste management. It requires framework conditions that go beyond short-term political cycles and promote a culture of foresight and collective stewardship. In an analytical framework developed for LTG, four key elements are identified: reflexivity, anticipation, adaptation, and deliberation. Contributions to this Special topic provide insights into LTG approaches in different contexts, highlighting participatory mechanisms for democratic accountability and ethical decision making. The articles explore the complexity of LTG and the tension between long-term objectives and immediate political pressures, thus contributing to the advancement of LTG theory and knowledge base