Impact of loadshedding in South Africa: A CGE analysis

Abstract. The aim of this paper is to provide a practical contribution to the body of knowledge on the impact of loadshedding in South Africa. This study adopted a pragmatic research methodology by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for empirical analysis. This study estimates that loadshedding will reduce economic growth by 2.3%, this higher than the Banks earlier prediction of a 0.6%. This study is limited to the effects of loadshedding and shed light on the South African economy that has been adversely affected by the Covid 19 pandemic and its recovery trajectory which is now stifled by persistent load shedding. Empirical analysis of the effects of loadshedding through the usage of the CGE model establishes the originality of this study.Keywords. Loadshedding; Electricity; Energy; CGE model.JEL. D58; L90; L94

Social regulation and orientation of access trajectories to social networks amongst Cameroonian adolescents

Abstract. The objective of this research is to establish a connection between social regulation mechanisms and the trajectory of access to social networks among Cameroonian adolescents. The study explores the various normative indications that influence social media users. It is evident that the normative and regulatory framework for accessing social networks and the internet, in general, is not sufficiently coercive and dissuasive to encourage appropriate behavior among young people in cyberspace. Strengthening adolescent security should involve stricter behavioral control, both autonomously and in negotiation with public authorities.Keywords. Social regulation; Social networks; Cameroonian adolescents.JEL. A10; E59; N16

An economic analysis of the Bahamas Currency

Abstract. This paper seeks to answer whether the replacement of the Bahamas currency board by a central bank was a rational decision given the subsequent economic performance climate of the central bank and the Bahamian economy. The paper describes the currency board’s establishment; its switch from the pound sterling to the U.S. dollar as the anchor currency; and its replacement by a proto-central bank soon succeeded by the Central Bank of the Bahamas, which continues in existence today. Statements of the currency board from the Bahamas Gazette as well as other sources will help analyze the aforementioned periods and illustrate the effects each transition had on the economy. The paper will examine the later years of the currency board and test whether it behaved in an orthodox or unorthodox manner as well as exploring its relation to government finance.Keywords. Bahamas; Currency board.JEL. E59; N16; N26

Suggestive commitment and employability itinerary. A psychosocial study of the causes of idleness among young Cameroonians

Abstract. The complexity of the job market, which has led, among other things, to underemployment, unemployment and the tenfold increase in the informal sector, leads to the problem of the employability of young people. According to the report of the International Labor Organization (ILO, 2022), the youth unemployment rate exceeds 23% in 2021 in the Central African sub-region. To solve this problem, several strategies have been used; in particular, the creation of public and private support services for job seekers. Despite all this, the concern for the employability of young people is still acute. The objective of this research is to show that young job seekers with fatalistic beliefs who have undergone priming are psychologically more prepared than those who are not.Keywords. Competitiveness; Production; Financial, and governance pillars; Farms.JEL. Q10; O31; O33; Q01; Q16; Q18

The Malayan Currency Board, 1938-1967

Abstract. This essay examines the Malayan Currency Board from its formation in 1938 to its dissolution in 1967. It analyzes the orthodoxy of the board using high-frequency data, such as monthly statistics of currency notes in circulation. Accompanying the essay is a spreadsheet workbook which presents high-frequency data of the board in digital format for the first time, as well as balance sheets and other financial statements.Keywords. Brunei; Malaya; Malaysia; North borneo; Sarawak; Straits settlements; Singapore; Currency board.JEL. E59; N25; N26

Front Matter

Front Matte

Why negative rates are not a solution for Japan or the Eurozone

Abstract. Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09 four major central banks have implemented Quantitative Easing (QE) programs. However, the types of QE implemented by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England on the one hand and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the European Central Bank on the other have been very different. In the case of the Fed and the Bank of England, the QE operations were consistent with an expansion of deposits in the banking system, a reduction of leverage in the non-bank private sector, and the gradual normalization of growth, interest rates and inflation. By contrast, the QE operations of the Bank of Japan and the ECB have not been consistent with an expansion of deposits in the banking system or a reduction of leverage in the non-bank private sector, and hence they have failed to promote the gradual normalization of growth, interest rates and inflation.Keywords. Central bank; Quantitative Easing; Monetary policy; Currency boards, Japan.JEL. E40; E42; E52

Comparative analysis of the effects of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021: Case study of Italy

Abstract. This study develops a comparative analysis of the effects of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between April-June 2020 (without vaccinations) and April-June 2021 (with vaccinations) in Italy. The findings reveal that the dynamics of COVID-19 is declining because of its seasonality that reduce the effects in summer season. Hence, this study provides critical lessons that could be of benefit to countries for crisis management of pandemic diseases, showing how seasonality can reduce the diffusion of airborne disease of novel viral agents in summer.Keywords. Pandemic diseases; Coronavirus, vaccines, Vaccination campaigns; Health systems; Climate; Seasonality.JEL. Q10; O31; O33; Q01; Q16; Q18

Intra-industry trade: Revisiting theory and literature survey

Abstract. Early references to intra-industry trade were mostly ignored for many years. It was only in the past two decades that intra-industry trade has received significant attention and has become a leading area for international economists. It has become increasingly common in recent decades due to the growth of international trade, globalization, and the integration of economies. Intra-industry trade can benefit countries by allowing them to specialize in their areas of comparative advantage and to access a wider range of products and services at lower prices. However, it can also pose challenges for some industries and workers who may face increased competition from foreign producers. The purpose of this paper is to review the extensive literature on intra-industry trade, assess the accomplishments of researchers in this area and predict future research directions. The paper evaluates intra-industry trade as a research program and assesses whether it can continue to advance in the future. To organize the paper, the authors evaluate current perspectives in four distinct areas: theory, measurement, empirical evidence, and policy aspects.Keywords. Intra-industry trade; Imperfect competition; Classical theories of trade.JEL. F11; F12; F13

From Keynes’ Clearing Union to the Euro-zone and the Renminbi

Abstract. The 1944 Bretton Woods agreement provided an international imprimatur for the dollar standard. H. D. White, the lead US negotiator, saw to it that the ability of other countries to obtain commitments from the US (via the International Monetary Fund) for loans or approval for currency devaluations would be limited. J.M. Keynes, representing Britain, in contrast proposed an International Clearing Union that would issue its own currency (“bancor”), intended to reduce systemic dependence on the dollar or on gold. The ICU would be a bank for the world’s central banks, which would allow debtor nations to borrow freely.  In contrast to White’s plan, ICU creditors would be expected to reduce their balances by expanding domestic credit or other means. Insights from Keynes’ plan help to understand later developments. An ICU premise was that international reserves should be pooled, and centralized.  The Bretton Woods gold-dollar standard was jeopardized during the 1960s – the Triffin dilemma -- when European creditor countries demanded gold reserves from the US. A monetary truce, proposed by Mundell, would have included 1) agreement by Europe and the US on an inflation level, and for US monetary policy to target that level; and 2) Europeans adjust their gold-to-dollar ratios to maintain the US gold stock. Monetary cooperation could thereby have created de facto international reserves. Instead, the Bretton Woods exchange rate apparatus collapsed by 1973, leaving major currencies to float. Against expectation, international demand for reserves soared. Relentless demand for US securities has contributed to deindustrialization and financial fragility, ongoing consequences of the dollar standard.  And exchange rate depreciation has done little to correct account imbalances. Clearing Union concepts help to understand the euro experiment – when it nearly failed, and how it recovered. An international currency can succeed only if 1) surplus and creditor countries are both required to adjust; and 2) member countries agree on inflation objectives. Demands on China to revalue have been misguided.  From the perspective of 2022, correction of account imbalances will not happen without the approval of the world’s now largest creditor – China – which is likely to resist any constrain on its actions.  This is and will be a drag on the world economy.Keywords. Bretton Woods;  International Clearing Union;  Bancor;  John Maynard Keynes;  Harry Dexter White;  Robert Triffin;  Robert Mundell;  Triffin Dilemma;  Monetary truce; 1966; Euro-zone; Renminbi revaluation; Partial equilibrium models; Multi-lateral clearing;  Flexible exchange rates.JEL. F02; F31; F33; F36; F38; F41; F45