Bias Induced by Risk Budgets in Betting Markets

Empirical observations of implied odds from horse race handicapping suggest that, on average, betting markets are informationally efficient. However, longshots are often mispriced. We argue that an implicit risk budget, particularly for races with large field sizes, artificially limits the correct pricing of genuine longshots. This impacts the implied probabilities and therefore prices paid for other runners in a race. Using entropy measures, we demonstrate this mispricing is systemic through betting markets

Why Does Sri Lanka Need Intelligence Reform?

Sri Lanka's history is marked by a protracted separatist war, which lasted nearly three decades, with a persistent struggle against terrorism. The nation's intelligence community has been instrumental in preserving national security during the three decades of separatist war. However, in the current post-war context, Sri Lanka grapples with complex geopolitical landscapes due to India's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region and the resurgence of great power competition. Also, Sri Lanka is exposed to the growing influence of violent extremism, which was evident by the Easter Sunday Attacks on 21st April 2019. Within such a complex security situation in Sri Lanka, shifting from a reactive intelligence approach to adopting a proactive strategic intelligence framework is needed. Thus, this commentary focuses on Sri Lanka's need for intelligence reform, highlighting the shortcomings of the current intelligence system, the influence of political interference, the need for modernity, and the importance of preserving human rights and accountability

Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR), Islamic Marriage, Divorce and Child Custody in England and Wales

This article considers the inter-relationship between Islamic Law and case and statute law as it relates to legal practice in England and Wales. The emergence of Shari’a in the United Kingdom is briefly considered together with the Islamic origins of arbitration and the development of Shari’a Councils and arbitration bodies. It reviews the place of mediation and arbitration in decisions related to divorce, payment of mahr and child custody issues. These are considered within the case law which reports the outcomes in English courts, when marital disputes have not been settled through traditional means. Attention is also paid to the potential role of traditional attitudes on outcomes both within Shari’a councils and English courts

Testing a System for Discerning Blackjack-Playing Tendencies from Card-by-Card Hand Histories: An Initial Simulation Using Bots

The game of blackjack involves in-game actions that can materially affect the possible outcomes and/or their probabilities. In theory, with data from enough hands and decision points, researchers and gambling operators should be able to develop player profiles and then use those profiles to detect increased risk of gambling harm. However, it is currently unclear how much blackjack play is needed to accurately classify players. As a preliminary experiment, we separated blackjack hands into nine classes, and then proposed a total of twenty play patterns (“heuristics”) across hand classes to operationalize players’ strategies. We used our heuristics as components to construct 506 blackjack-playing bots to simulate human play. We then created a program that would read a session’s data and attempt to determine which bot generated that data. We found that for more infrequently occurring hand classes (e.g., pairs, soft hands), even 30 shoes of play were not enough to accurately determine the identity of a bot. With more frequent hand classes (e.g., hard hands), we could only accurately identify bots that played consistent strategies within 30 shoes. Results suggest that efforts to use blackjack hand histories and profile-fitting to generate markers for gambling harm might require simpler classification systems, or otherwise be limited to highly involved blackjack players

Blockchain Based Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are a form of collective intelligence that leverage market mechanisms to incentivise large numbers of individuals to make forecasts about future uncertain events. Since their origin in the 1980’s, they have been the subject of a small but steady stream of academic research. Proponents suggest that they have several advantages over comparable information aggregation mechanisms such as polls or expert groups. More recently the rise of blockchain, cryptocurrencies and decentralised finance (DeFi) has excited new interest in prediction markets. The characteristics of this triad of technologies has particular resonances with prediction markets. This research identifies the potential impact of blockchain technology on prediction market design and performance with a view to informing a research agenda to investigate those potential impacts

The Voice of the Trees in the Law of Armed Conflict

This article takes up questions of environmental protection, in the law and practice of armed conflict with a specific focus on the figure of the speaking tree as invoked in discussions of the protection of tree and plant life. The article canvasses historical works in which this figure appears, from the early work of Philo of Alexandria and Josephus through to the discussion of their work by Hugo Grotius. Through this endeavour, the article attempts to take seriously the figure of animated trees with the standing to speak and to be heard in legal forums. I conclude that it is not only a common humanity that is at stake in doing this, but re-orienting the interests of human creatures as in relation to the protection of trees and forests, and other ‘inanimate objects’

Applied Operational Intelligence: Improving Practice Through Marginal Gains

The Journal of Applied Operational Intelligence aims to be a bridge between high-quality peer-reviewed academic research and the intelligence community. The journal’s focus will be on evidence-based research, where conclusions and recommendations aim to inform intelligence practices, policies, training, and future research. In this editorial to the very first volume of the journal, Editors-in-Chief discuss the necessity of interdisciplinary research, the vital role of intelligence, and how marginal gains (e.g., research that produces small yet meaningful improvements) are vital to the overall performance of intelligence

Implementing Alternative Sentencing in the Criminal Justice System: Implications for Human Rights

Prisons operate with varying aims, including the infliction of punishment, individualdeterrence and general deterrence, even retribution or revenge. One aim is to enable offenders to become aware of their mistakes and be accepted back into the community. A problem with implementing this aim is, however, that imprisonment may generate greater capacity for offending in the convict, who may emerge from prison ‘worse’ than when entering it. This article briefly reviews the philosophy that lies behind alternatives to imprisonment by reference to a small slice of the literature and concludes that more research is required to draw firm conclusions about their efficacy. Research is needed on the domesticlevel and internationally to determine how alternative punishments may result in upholding the human rights of offenders and improving outcomes for society as a whole