Implementation and Initial Foci

Recommendations by th

Modelling mortality rates using GEE models

Generalised estimating equation (GEE) models are extensions of generalised linear models by relaxing the assumption of independence. These models are appropriate to analyze correlated longitudinal responses which follow any distribution that is a member of the exponential family. This model is used to relate daily mortality rate of Maltese adults aged 65 years and over with a number of predictors, including apparent temperature, season and year. To accommodate the right skewed mortality rate distribution a Gamma distribution is assumed. An identity link function is used for ease of interpretating the parameter estimates. An autoregressive correlation structure of order 1 is used since correlations decrease as distance between observations increases. The study shows that mortality rate and temperature are related by a quadratic function. Moreover, the GEE model identifies a number of significant main and interaction effects which shed light on the effect of weather predictors on daily mortality rates.peer-reviewe

What is required to end the AIDS epidemic as a public health threat by 2030? the cost and impact of the fast-track approach

In 2011 a new Investment Framework was proposed that described how the scale-up of key HIV interventions could dramatically reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low and middle income countries by 2015. This framework included ambitious coverage goals for prevention and treatment services for 2015, resulting in a reduction of new HIV infections by more than half, in line with the goals of the declaration of the UN High Level Meeting in June 2011. However, the approach suggested a leveling in the number of new infections at about 1 million annually - far from the UNAIDS goal of ending AIDS by 2030. In response, UNAIDS has developed the Fast-Track approach that is intended to provide a roadmap to the actions required to achieve this goal. The Fast-Track approach is predicated on a rapid scale-up of focused, effective prevention and treatment services over the next 5 years and then maintaining a high level of programme implementation until 2030. Fast-Track aims to reduce new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% from 2010 to 2030 and proposes a set of biomedical, behavioral and enabling intervention targets for 2020 and 2030 to achieve that goal, including the rapid scale-up initiative for antiretroviral treatment known as 90-90-90. Compared to a counterfactual scenario of constant coverage for all services at early-2015 levels, the Fast-Track approach would avert 18 million HIV infections and 11 million deaths from 2016 to 2030 globally. This paper describes the analysis that produced these targets and the estimated resources needed to achieve them in low- and middle-income countries. It indicates that it is possible to achieve these goals with a significant push to achieve rapid scale-up of key interventions between now and 2020. The annual resources required from all sources would rise to US$7.4Bn in low-income countries, US$8.2Bn in lower middle-income countries and US$10.5Bn in upper-middle-income-countries by 2020 before declining approximately 9% by 2030

Agenda: The Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise in Hampton Roads: An Appraisal of the Projects Underway

Agenda for the workshop The Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise in Hampton Roads: An Appraisal of the Projects Underway on May 18, 2016 at the Virginia Modeling and Simulation Center, 1030 University Blvd, Suffolk, VA 2343

Proceedings, MSVSCC 2011

Proceedings of the 5th Annual Modeling, Simulation & Visualization Student Capstone Conference held on April 14, 2011 at VMASC in Suffolk, Virginia. 186 pp

Proceedings, MSVSCC 2015

The Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center (VMASC) of Old Dominion University hosted the 2015 Modeling, Simulation, & Visualization Student capstone Conference on April 16th. The Capstone Conference features students in Modeling and Simulation, undergraduates and graduate degree programs, and fields from many colleges and/or universities. Students present their research to an audience of fellow students, faculty, judges, and other distinguished guests. For the students, these presentations afford them the opportunity to impart their innovative research to members of the M&S community from academic, industry, and government backgrounds. Also participating in the conference are faculty and judges who have volunteered their time to impart direct support to their students’ research, facilitate the various conference tracks, serve as judges for each of the tracks, and provide overall assistance to this conference. 2015 marks the ninth year of the VMASC Capstone Conference for Modeling, Simulation and Visualization. This year our conference attracted a number of fine student written papers and presentations, resulting in a total of 51 research works that were presented. This year’s conference had record attendance thanks to the support from the various different departments at Old Dominion University, other local Universities, and the United States Military Academy, at West Point. We greatly appreciated all of the work and energy that has gone into this year’s conference, it truly was a highly collaborative effort that has resulted in a very successful symposium for the M&S community and all of those involved. Below you will find a brief summary of the best papers and best presentations with some simple statistics of the overall conference contribution. Followed by that is a table of contents that breaks down by conference track category with a copy of each included body of work. Thank you again for your time and your contribution as this conference is designed to continuously evolve and adapt to better suit the authors and M&S supporters. Dr.Yuzhong Shen Graduate Program Director, MSVE Capstone Conference Chair John ShullGraduate Student, MSVE Capstone Conference Student Chai

Distributed agent-based building evacuation simulator

The optimisation of the evacuation of a building plays a fundamental role in emergency situations. The behaviour of individuals, the directions that civilians receive, and the actions of the emergency personnel, will affect the success of the operation. We describe a simulation system that represents the individual, intelligent, and interacting agents that cooperate and compete while evacuating the building. The system also takes into account detailed information about the building and the sensory capabilities that it may contain. Since the level of detail represented in such a simulation can lead to computational needs that grow at least as a polynomial function of the number of the simulated agents, we propose an agent-oriented Distributed Building Evacuation Simulator (DBES). The DBES is integrated with a wireless sensor network which offers a closed loop representation of the evacuation procedure, including the sensed data and the emergency decision making

Proceedings, MSVSCC 2013

Proceedings of the 7th Annual Modeling, Simulation & Visualization Student Capstone Conference held on April 11, 2013 at VMASC in Suffolk, Virginia

Proceedings, MSVSCC 2012

Proceedings of the 6th Annual Modeling, Simulation & Visualization Student Capstone Conference held on April 19, 2012 at VMASC in Suffolk, Virginia