Regional Price Transmission in Southern African Maize Markets

Abstract

In light of the importance of maize as a staple crop in Southern Africa, as well as its prioritisation from a policy perspective, this study evaluates the extent of price transmission between selected maize markets in the region. It employs secondary data of weekly white maize prices in seven markets in the region to quantify the long and short run price relationships between relevant markets based on geographic proximity and expected trade patterns. While several authors have noted the isolation of white maize markets in Southern Africa from the global market, this study finds evidence of co-integration between multiple maize markets within the Southern African region. By implication, policy decisions affecting prices in any single country will influence price levels in multiple surrounding markets, impacting on both producer and consumer welfare not only in the country of application but also in the region as a whole