This study assesses the intervention against avian influenza in Nigeria. It
applied a simple compartmental model to define endemic and burn-out scenarios for
the risk of spread of HPAI in Nigeria. It followed with the derivation of low and high
mortality risks associated to each scenario. The estimated risk parameters were subsequently
used to stochastically simulate the trajectory of the disease, had no intervention
been carried out. Overall, the intervention costs US41million,whichwasyearlydisbursedinvariousamountsoverthe2006β2010period.Thekeyoutputvariables(incrementalnetbenefit,diseasecost,andbenefitcostratio)wereestimatedforeachrandomlydrawnriskparameter.Witha12interventionwaseconomicallyjustifiedundertheendemicscenariowithhighmortalityrisk.Onaverage,incrementalbenefitunderthisscenarioamountedtoUS 63.7 million,
incremental net benefit to US$27.2 million, and benefit cost ratio estimated to 1.75