Estimating a range of flow rates resulting from extreme storm events within the Wekiva River watershed through statistical testing and modeling

Abstract

The middle portion of the St. Johns River is located in East-Central Florida, USA. This region of the St. Johns River is increasingly subject to urbanization and conversion of forest areas to agricultural land. Overall, these changes mean that future flood events in the area could adversely impact local citizens. Therefore, the examination of extreme flood events and resiliency to such events is critical. The purpose of this preliminary study is to explore a range of practical applications to estimate extreme flood flows at watercourses within the Middle St. Johns River Basin, focusing specifically upon the Wekiva River sub-basin. The current work illustrates the overall technical methodology and provides estimates of extreme flood flows at different return frequencies using hydrologic modeling, statistical analysis, and supporting published reports. Altogether, once fully integrated and complete, the methods will permit predictions at a range of possible flood flows as a result of an extreme storm event at any place along the watercourse

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