Investigating the Role of Poultry in Livelihoods and the Impact of HPAI on Livelihoods Outcomes in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria
In this paper we investigate the role of poultry in the livelihoods portfolios of households and the
impact of supply and demand shocks that may be caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza
(HPAI) on various livelihoods outcomes of households in four Sub-Saharan African (SSA)
countries. The study countries include Ethiopia and Kenya in East Africa and Ghana and Nigeria
in West Africa. These countries represent a spectrum of SSA countries in terms of disease
status, role of poultry sector and means of disease spread. By using nationally representative
household level secondary data and discrete choice methods (probit model and zero inflated
negative binomial model) we profile the household, farm and regional characteristics of those
households who are most likely to keep poultry, and those who are most likely to be engaged in
intensive poultry production, i.e., keep larger household flocks. We estimate the impact of the
disease outbreaks and scares/threats on livelihood outcomes by using matching methods (i.e.,
propensity score matching). The results of this study generate valuable information regarding
the role of poultry in the livelihoods of small-scale poultry producing households and the
livelihood impacts of HPAI induced demand and supply shocks. Such information is critical
for the design of targeted and hence efficient and effective HPAI control and mitigation
policies
