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Uncertainty evaluation of civil engineering structures behavior

Abstract

All decisions that concern the development and management of existent infrastructure are of extremely importance for society. However, it is verified that these decisions are influenced by a huge source of uncertainties that must be taken into account. A methodology that consider this, and, which objective, is to support such decisions, is developed within this research. In order to support such methodology, a numerical model is developed. Such model is then calibrated using backanalysis procedures, so that, given results, could best fit obtained experimental data. The developed model is continuously updated with collected data, by using inference processes. Then, a full probabilistic analysis is performed in order to evaluate the respective structure behavior. This paper describes such methodology, and the respective application with a batch of reinforced concrete beams, tested at laboratory, till failure. The developed methodology is applied with success and obtained results revealed the respective importance in future decisions concerning the societal infrastructure. Further steps consider the application of such methodology with a real structure.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT

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