[[alternative]]The Migration of Taiwan's Industries to China and Taiwan's Fundamentals

Abstract

[[abstract]]本文探討台灣產業外移大陸投資與台灣經濟之互動影響。由共整合以及誤差修正模型的檢定結果得知，台灣產業外移投資金額與國內總體經濟存在有長期均衡關係，而其間之共移為Johansen[[abstract]]This paper investigates the interrelationship between the migration ofTaiwan's industries to China and the Taiwan's fundamentals. Theresults from cointegration test and VECM show that there exists along-run equilibrium relationship between the capital outflows toChina and the Taiwan's macroeconomic fundamentals. The co-movementsamong them are presented in Johansen's first model, with no linear andquadratic trend. The VECM also shows that, in the short-run, all thefundamentals are shown to be the factors influencing the activities ofthe industries migrating to China. The Granger causality, however,argues that the fundamentals in Taiwan cannot play the leading rolesof the activities of the industries migrating to China. From theimpulse response, we find that the migration of Taiwan's industry toChina responding to the shocks of GDP and interest rate issignificant. The final finding from the variance decompositionpresents that the key factor explaining the forecast error variance( FEV) of the capital outflows to China. Moreover, the stock price isfound to be the only factor which can exhibit an explaining power inFEV of the migration of Taiwan's industries.[[sponsorship]]東吳大學商學院; 江蘇省財政學會; 蘇州大學財經學院[[notice]]補正完畢[[conferencetype]]兩岸[[conferencedate]]20020423~20020424[[booktype]]紙本[[iscallforpapers]]Y[[conferencelocation]]臺北市, 臺