計畫編號：NSC91-2625-Z032-001研究期間：200208~200307研究經費：164,000[[sponsorship]]行政院國家科學委員

黃富國

計畫編號：NSC91-2625-Z032-001研究期間：200208~200307研究經費：164,000行政院國家科學委員

Tamkang University Institutional Repository

????????????????  ????   ??????????????????(I)   ?????????? ?????NSC91-2625-Z-032-001- ?????91?08?01??92?07?31? ????????????     ?????????  ??????????     ?????????  ?????????????     ? ? ? ? 92?12?31?  1???????????????????? ??????????????(I) Probabilistic Analysis for Soil Liquefaction and Induced Ground Deformation ?????NSC 91-2625-Z-032-001 ?????91 ? 8 ? 1 ?? 92 ? 7 ? 31 ? ???? ???   ???????  ??????  ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Monte Carlo ???????????? LPI??????? PLW ??????????? S ????????????????????????????????????????????Haz-Taiwan ?????????????????????????????????????  ?????????????  Abstract  In this research, liquefaction probability is evaluated first by logistic regression model, which using liquefaction and non- liquefaction database in the world. The relationship between liquefaction probability and factor of safety is then established. Following, liquefaction potential index (LPI), weighted probability of liquefaction (PLW) and settlement after liquefaction (S) are assessed using liquefaction database of 921 Chi-Chi earthquake by Monte Carlo simulation. These results are compared with liquefaction phenomena  of sites and classification of liquefaction damage index. The analysis model in this research are thus verified, and can be used in the frame of Haz-Taiwan software for evaluating liquefaction damages. It is beneficial to make liquefaction microzonation and design appropriate countermeasures against liquefaction damages.  Keywords : Soil Liquefaction,  Probability Analysis ????????? ??????????????????????????????????????????????(soil liquefaction)??????????????????? 1964 ??? Niigata ??????????????????????????????????????? Alaska ???? 8.4 ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? 1989 ??? Loma Pieta ???1994 ???? Northridge ???1995 ??? Kobe???? 1999 ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Haz-Taiwan ??????????????????? FEMA ? NIBS ????????????????(????1999)??????????????????????????????????? ? ? (permanent ground deformation ?PGD)?????????????????Haz-Taiwan ?????????????????“??”?“?”????????????????????????(PGA)???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? 2Haz-Taiwan ?????????????????????????????????????????????Haz-Taiwan?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????(? Seed ?????Youd et al., 2001)?????????????????????????????????????????????????? Monte Carlo ????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Haz-Taiwan ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????  ??????   ??????????????????(1)??????(susceptibility)????????????(microzonation)?(2)???????????????????????????????? (a) ??????????????????  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ISSMFE(1993)?Ishihara & Yasuda(1991)?Youd & Perkins(1978)?Youd & Perkins(1987) ? Kavazamjian et al.(1985)?Elton & Hadj-Hamou(1990)???Haz-Taiwan ???????????????????????????????????(????1999)???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????(ISSMFE?1993)????????????????????????????????????????????????????? (i)??????(????) ??? 1.?????????????????????? 2.?????????????????????????????? ??? 1.???????????? (1) ? ? — ? ? ? ? ? ?(magnitude-maximum distance criteria)   (2) ????(intensity criteria)   2.?????????????????  (1) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? (geologic and geomorphologic criteria) (2) ???????(liquefaction severity index, LSI) (ii)??????(????)   ???   1.????????????????????   2.?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????   ??? 1. ???? (geological criteria) 2. Youd & Perkins(1978)???  (iii)??????(????)   ???   1.????????????????????   2.??????????????????????????????????????????   ??? ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????(???????, 2000)?  3(1)????????????????????????????????????????? 1.0 ???????????????????????(SPT)? Seed(1985)?(Seed et al.,1985)?JRA(1996)?(????????1996)?T&Y(1983)????????(CPT)? Robertson & Wride(1997)??Olsen(1997)??????????? Iwasaki et al. (1982)??????????(liquefaction potential index) LPI???????????????LPI?????????????  å=´´=niiii HWFLPI1     ??        11001>££îíì -=LiLiLii FFforforFF      ?         Wi = 10-0.5Zi     ??? FLi?? i ????????????Wi????????? i ????????????????Hi ?? i ?????(??? m)?????0?Zi?20m?? n ???????????? SPT-N ?????????LPI ??????????????????? 0 ? 20m??????????? 100?????????????????? (2)???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????(??????????)??????????????????SHAKE????????????????????? (3)???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????  ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????  (b)??????????????  ???????????????(deterministic approach)??????????????????????????????????????????(??????????? PGA??????????????? Mu)??????????? FS???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? FS ?????????????????????????????????(uncertainty)?????????????????????????????(probability approach)??????????????Haldar & Tang(1979)?Liao et al. (1988) ?????????????(First-Order Second-Moment Method, FOSM)????????????????? ?? Haz-Taiwan ???????????????????????????(??????????)??????????????????????????? 4?????? PGA=a ??????????????? P?LSC??      [ ] [ ] mlWMSCSC PKKaPGALPLP==  ???P?LSC?PGA=a?????? M=7.5????? dw=1.5m ????????????? PGA=a ???????????KM?KW ???????M?? 7.5????? dw ?? 1.5 ?????????? Pml?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Pml??? ?????????? P?LSC?PGA=a???? Pml???????????????? KM?KW ??????????????????(??????)??????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Haz-Taiwan ?????????????? PGA ?(PGA)t (? M=7.5?dw=1.5m??????????? PGA ???)???????????????????????????????Bartlett & Youd(1995)???????????????????????????????????????? ???Ishihara ? Yoshimine?1992???????????????????????????? SPT-N ?(??????Dr??)?????????? FS ???????????v???????????????????????????????????????????????????????? S(cm)??????Ishihara ??? S ???????????????? ?????????????? Monte Carlo ????????? Ishihara ?Yoshimine?1992?????????????????????????????????????????????  ???????????????? (a) ???????????     ??????(logistic regression model)?? 1988 ???? Liao et al. (1988) ?????????????????????????????????????? ( )0 1 11 11 exp( ) 1 expL L m mPQ X Xb b b= =+ - + - + + +é ùë ûL?? Xi ?????(explanatory variable)????????????????? 0b ?1b ??? mb ??????????? ?????????? SPT- ( )1 60N ?( ? ? SPT-N ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?vs ¢ =21 /kgf cm ?????????????60%?????????Youd et al.,2001)?????????? ln(CSRN)???????? max0.65 v dvaCSR rgss=¢                                     CSRCSRN MSF=                                                      2.567.5WMMSF-æ ö= ç ÷è ø                                                      ?? maxa =??????????g =?????? vs ? vs ¢ ???????????????? dr =???????MSF ?? Youd et al. (2001) ?????? MSF ??????????? WM ????? (moment magnitude)?????????? Youd & Noble (1997)???? 367 ??????Hwang et.al,(2002) ???? 288 ??????????????????????? 655 ???????????????SPT ??(??)?????????????????(1996)??????????????????????????????????? QL =10.097- 0.245(N1)60,cs + 3.757 ln(CSRN)  5? ? (N1)60,cs ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?SPT- ( )1 60N ????Youd et al. (2001) ????????????????(equivalent clean-sand) N ???????? Nagelkerke R2=0.699 ????????????89.4%(321/359)????????????? 82.1%(243/296)?????????86.1%?    ?????????CSRN~(N1)60,cs ???????? Seed ?????????(Youd et al.,2001)(? SPT-SI ???)????????????????(N1)60,cs ??? 6 ???SPT-SI ???????????????? PL = 0.3~0.5 ?????SPT-SI ?????????????????????Seed?(Youd et al.,2001)?????????? FS?????????(Juang et al.,2002)?? PL? FS ??? PL = 1/[1+(FS/A)B] ?? A= 0.8632?B = 3.7102?? R2= 0.997?????????????????????????? FS??????????PL ??????????????(????)???????????? FS????????????????????????????????????? òò=200200)()()(dzzWdzzWzPPLLW  ?????? W = 10 - 0.5 z?z ????????(??? m)????? 0£ z £ 20 m??? Juang et al.(2002)???????? PL ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? PLW ???????????  (b) ???????????      ??????????????????????????????????????????(2000)?????? 50? SPT ?????????????(????BH-35)??????(????BH-32)????????????? Monte Carlo ?????(????1996)???????????????????     ??????????????????????????????? BH-32?BH-35?????? PGA????????????????????? 475 ????? PGA ???? 0.38g? 0.39g??????????????????????? 80%??(????1996)?????????????????? TCU110 ??????? PGA ? 0.187g??? 2 ?????????????????     ???????? BH-32 ? BH-35 ???????(BH-32 ???? dw=2.0m?7.5m~12.0m ?????????????????BH-35 ???? dw=2.3m?? 7.5m??????????????????????????)??????????? LPI ??????? PLW ??????????? S ????????? LPI ??????BH-32 ? BH-35 ??? 475 ????? LPI ??? 10.7 ? 27.0????????????????????????????????? PLW ??????BH-32?BH-35???475????? PLW??? 0.645 ? 0.853??????????????????????????????????????????????????S ??????BH-32 ? BH-35??? 475????? S ??? 14.7cm?33.9cm?????????????????????????????????????? 475????? PGA ???????????? PGA ??????????????????????BH-32 ?BH-35 ???????????????????????? PGA ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? PL? FS ???? 6???????????? FS(???BH-32 ? BH-35 ? FS ???? 0.75 ?0.51)????????????????????????????????????????~???????????????????????????Haz-Taiwan ????????????????????????  ???????  1. ????????????????????????????????????? PL ???????(N1)60,cs ?????????? CSRN ????????? PL???????? FS ?????????????????????????(????)?????(??)??????????????????????????????? 2. ?????????????????????? Monte Carlo ?????????????? LPI??????? PLW ??????????? S ??????????? 475 ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Haz-Taiwan???????????????????????????????????????? 3. ???????????????????????????????????????  ???????? ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????      ????? [1] Bartlett, S. F. and Youd, T. L. (1995), “Empirical Prediction of Liquefaction Induced Lateral Spread”, Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 121, No. 4, pp. 316-359. [2] Elton, D. J. and Hadj-Hamou, T. (1990), “Liquefaction Potential Map for Charleston, South Carolina”, Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 116, No. 2. [3] Haldar, A. and Tang, W. H.(1979), “Probabilistic Evaluation of Liquefaction Potential”, ASCE, Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division, Vol. 105, No. GT2, pp. 145-164. [4] Hwang,J. H. and Yang, C.W.(2001), “Verification of Critical Cyclic Strength Curve by Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake Data”, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, Vol.21, pp. 237-257. [5] Iwasaki, T. et al. (1982),?Microzonation for Soil Liquefaction Potential Using Simplified Method?, Proceedings of the 3rd International Earthquake Microzonation Conference, Seattle. [6] Ishihara, K. and Yasuda, S. (1991),? Microzonation for Liquefaction Potential during Earthquakes ? , Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Seismic Zonation, Vol.1, Stanford, California, pp.703-724. [7] Ishihara, K. and Yoshimine, M.?1992?.“Evaluation of Settlements in Sand Deposits Following Liquefaction During Earthquakes,” Soils and Foundations, Vol. 32, No.1, pp.173-188. [8] ISSMFE (1993), Manual for Zonation on Seismic Geotechnical Hazards, Technical Committee for Earthquake Geotechnical   Engineering, TC4. [9] Kavazanjian, E., Roth, R. A. and Heriberto Echezuria (1985), “Liquefaction Potential Mapping for San Francisco”, Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, ASCE,Vol. 111, No. 1.pp.54-76.  7[10] Juang, C. H., Jiang, T., and Andrus, R. D. (2002). “Assessing Probability-based Methods for Liquefaction Potential Evaluation.” J. Geotech. and Geoenvir. Engrg., ASCE, 128(7), 580-589. [11] Liao, S. S., Veneziano, D. and Whitman, R. V. (1988),?Regression Models for Evaluating Liquefaction Probability ? , Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, ASCE, Vol.114, No.4, pp.389-411. [12] Liu, Y. and Xie, J. F. (1984) ? Seismic Liquefaction of Sand”, Earthquake Press, China. (in Chinese) [13] Olsen, R. S. (1997), “Cyclic Liquefaction Based on the Cone Penetrometer Test”, Proceeding of the NCEER Workshop on Evaluation of Liquefaction Resistance of Soils, Edit by T. L. Youd and I. M. Idriss. NCEER -97 –0022. pp. 225-276. [14] Robertson, P. K. and Wride, C. E. (1997) “Cyclic Liquefaction and its Evaluation Based on SPT and CPT”, Proceeding of the NCEER Workshop on Evaluation of Liquefaction Resistance of Soils, Edit by T. L. Youd and I. M. Idriss. NCEER -97 –0022. pp.41-88. [15] Sadigh, K., Egan, J. A. and Youngs, R. R. (1986), “Specification of Ground Motion for Seismic Design of Long Period Structures”, Earthquake Notes, Vol.57, No.1, pp.13. [16] Seed, H. B., Tokimatsu, K., Harder, L. F. and Chung, R. M. (1985), “Influence of SPT Procedures in Soil Liquefaction Resistance Evaluations,” Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, ASCE, Vol.111, No.12, pp.1425-1445. [17] Tokimatsu, K. and Yoshimi, Y. (1983), “Empirical Correlation of Soil Liquefaction Based on SPT N-value and Fines Content,” Soil and Foundations, JSSMFE, Vol.23, No.4, pp.56-74. [18] Youd, T. L., and Noble, S. K. (1997). “Magnitude Scaling Factors.” Proc., NCEER Workshop on Evaluation of Liquefaction Resistance of Soils, Nat. Ctr. for Earthquake Engrg. Res., State Univ. of New Your at Buffalo, 149-165. [19] Youd & Perkins (1978), “Mapping Liquefaction-Induced Ground Failure Potential ”, Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division, ASCE, Vol. 104, No. GT4., pp.433-446. [20] Youd & Perkins (1987), “Mapping of Liquefaction Severity Index”, Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 113, No. 11. pp.1374-1392. [21] Youd, T. L., Idriss, I. M., Andrus, R. D., Arango, I., Castro, G., Christian, J. T., Dobry, R., Liam Finn, W. D., Harder, L. F., Jr., Hynes, M. E., Ishihara, K., Koester, J. P., Laio, S. S. C., Marcuson, III, W. F., Martin, G. R., Mitchell, J. K., Moriwaki, Y., Power, M. S., Robertson, P. K., Seed, R. B., Stokoe, II, K. H. (2001). “Liquefaction Resistance of Soils: Summary Report from the 1996 NCEER and 1998 NCEER/NSF Workshops on Evaluation of Liquefaction Resistance of Soils.” J. Geotech. and Geoenvir. Engrg., ASCE, Vol.127, No 10, pp. 817-833. [22] ??????? (1996)?????????????V ??????? [23] ????????(2000)????????????????????(?????????????)??????????? [24] ??? (1996)????????????????????????????????? [25] ??????????? (1999)?“??????????????????”????????? 3??? 3 ??? 47-79 ?? [26] ??? (1999)????????????????????????????????????????NCREE-99-035? [27] ??????? (2000)?“???????????????????”??????? 81 ??? 57~ 68 ??    80 5 10 15 20 25 30Depth (m)020406080100Energy ratio ( % ) Rod  energy r atio ERr (load cell method, fr ee-f all hammer)  ?? SPT ??(??)??????????? SPT-SI: Seed method ( Youd et al., 2001)0 10 20 30 40Corrected blow count, (N1)60,CS00.10.20.30.40.50.6Cyclic stress or Resistance ratio, CSRN or CRRSPT-SIP L = 0.1P L = 0.3PL = 0.5P L = 0.7P L = 0.9LiquefactionNo liquefaction ?? ???????? SPT-SI ?????  0 1 2 3 4 5Factor of safety, FS0.00.20.40.60.81.0Probability  of  liquefaction, PLPL=1/(1+(FS/A)**B)A = 0.8 632B = 3 .7102R2= 0.9970Fitted curveLiq . dataNo liq . data ?? ?????????????????  PGA no dispersion0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Peak ground acceleration, PGA (g)0.0010.010.11Annual probability of exceedanceBH-32BH-35 PGA :  no dispersion0 10 20 30 40 50 60Liquefaction potential index, LPI0.0010.010.11Annual probability of exceedanceBH-32 (No liq.)BH-35 (Liq.)Seed method ?? ?????? LPI ???????   PGA : no dispersion0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Probability  of  liquefaction, PLW0.0010.010.11Annual probability of exceedanceBH-32 (No liq.)BH-35 (Liq.)Seed method ?? ?????? PLW ???????   PGA : no dispersion0 10 20 30 40 50 60Settlement after liquefaction , S(cm)0.0010.010.11Annual probability of exceedanceBH-32 (No liq.)BH-35 (Liq.)Seed method ?? ?????? S ??????? ?? ?????? PGA ???????  9 ??  ?????? LPI ???????? ?????? LPI ?  ?  ?  ? 0 ??????? 0<LPI?5 ?  ?  ?  ? 5<LPI?15 ?  ?  ?  ? LPI$15 ?  ?  ?  ?   ??  ??? S ?????????? ?????? ??? S (cm) ????????? ????? 0?S?10 ???????????? ?? ???? 10?S?30 ???????????? ??? ???? 30?S?70 ???????????? ?????????????   ??  ???????(Juang et al., 2002) ?? ???? P L ????? 5 P L³0.85 ???????? 4 0.65?P L<0.85 ?????? 3 0.35?P L<0.65 ???????????? 2 0.15?P L<0.35 ????? 1 P L <0.15 ?????????   

Probabilistic Analysis for Soil Liquefaction and Induced Ground Deformation (I)

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[[alternative]]Probabilistic Analysis for Soil Liquefaction and Induced Ground Deformation (I)

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