Andresen, Martin A.

Ly, Monica

Simon Fraser University Institutional Repository

RIG PIGS   A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF CRIME AND ENERGY PRICES IN ALBERTA Monica Ly Simon Fraser University, ICURS Martin Andresen, PhD Simon Fraser University, ICURS Western Society of Criminology, 2016 BOOMTOWNS & CRIME • Resource-based communities experiencing a population growth for a period of time  • Different boomtown, different experiences   • Lower quality of life  Inadequate services and resources  Policing in boomtowns  • Increase in alcohol consumption and drug usage   ENERGY IN ALBERTA • Ample employment and income opportunities  • Population growth due to inter-provincial migration  • Youngest population in the country  • High education and skills levels   The source of the material is http://www.energy.alberta.ca/OilSands/pdfs/ERCB_designatedOSA.pdf.  The use of these materials by Monica Ly is done without any affiliation with or endorsement by the Government of Alberta. Reliance upon Monica Ly’s use of these materials is at the risk of the end user.  OIL PRODUCTION & OIL PRICES 0102030405060700.00500.001,000.001,500.002,000.002,500.003,000.00Average oil production (thousands of barrels per day) WTI oil prices (CAD) http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=ca&product=oil&graph=production The source of the material: http://economicdashboard.albertacanada.com/EnergyPrice The use of these materials by Monica Ly is done without any affiliation with or endorsement by the Government of Alberta. Reliance upon Monica Ly’s use of these materials is at the risk of the end user.  DATA & METHODS • Canadian Socio-Economic Information Management Systems (CANSIM)  1998-2006 total violent and property crime, by police jurisdictions  1996, 2001, 2006 Canadian census  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices, CAD • Natural gas prices, CAD  • Fixed effects linear regression model  VIOLENT CRIMES  Fixed effects linear regression testing the influence of current year oil prices and violent crime rates, 1998-2006 Estimate Male population, 15-24 years old (%) 2.09+ Single population (%) -1.22** Occupied dwellings – rented (%) 0.34* Mobility status, 1 year ago (%) -0.97*** Aboriginal population (%) -0.35* Unemployment (%) -1.10** Total population with post-secondary education (%) -0.35** Average income family, year 2000 constant dollars (thousands) 0.10+ WTI, current year prices (CAD) 0.08* +p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01 VIOLENT CRIMES  Fixed effects linear regression testing the influence of previous year natural gas prices and violent crime rates, 1998-2006 Estimate Male population, 15-24 years old (%) 2.08+ Single population (%) -1.23** Occupied dwellings – rented (%) 0.35* Mobility status, 1 year ago (%) -0.95** Aboriginal population (%) -0.37** Unemployment (%) -1.10** Total population with post-secondary education (%) -0.37** Average income family, year 2000 constant dollars (thousands) 0.11** Natural gas, previous year prices (CAD) 0.59* +p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01 PROPERTY CRIMES Fixed effects linear regression testing the influence of energy prices and property crime rates, 1998-2006 Estimate Male population, 15-24 years old (%) 12.90* Occupied dwellings – rented (%) 2.93** Occupied dwellings – apartments (%) -2.43+ Mobility status, 5 years ago (%) -2.01* Population employed in oil and gas industry (%) 2.85* +p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01 DISCUSSION • High employment and crime  • Measuring the economy  • Significant negative relationship with Aboriginal population   FUTURE RESEARCH • Shadow population  • Disaggregate crime types   • Recent ‘oil crisis’  THANK YOU Monica Ly MA Student Simon Fraser University, ICURS monica_ly@sfu.ca 

Rig Pigs: A Longitudinal Analysis of Crime and Energy Prices In Alberta

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