The relationship between the Bayesian approach and the minimum description
length approach is established. We sharpen and clarify the general modeling
principles MDL and MML, abstracted as the ideal MDL principle and defined from
Bayes's rule by means of Kolmogorov complexity. The basic condition under which
the ideal principle should be applied is encapsulated as the Fundamental
Inequality, which in broad terms states that the principle is valid when the
data are random, relative to every contemplated hypothesis and also these
hypotheses are random relative to the (universal) prior. Basically, the ideal
principle states that the prior probability associated with the hypothesis
should be given by the algorithmic universal probability, and the sum of the
log universal probability of the model plus the log of the probability of the
data given the model should be minimized. If we restrict the model class to the
finite sets then application of the ideal principle turns into Kolmogorov's
minimal sufficient statistic. In general we show that data compression is
almost always the best strategy, both in hypothesis identification and
prediction.Comment: 35 pages, Latex. Submitted IEEE Trans. Inform. Theor