The Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Fog Hours of California\u27s Central Coast

Abstract

This study used observations and downscaled model output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 to investigate diurnal temperature differences and their relationship to the number of fog hours in the future along California’s central coast. The study area extended north-south from Bodega Bay to the Santa Lucia Range and east-west from the coast of California to the western flank of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Analyses of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 showed that most of California’s central coast will likely see minimal changes in the number of fog hours per day through the turn of the century. However, fog hours in the northern portion of the study area showed a reduction of up to an hour and a half per day, while southern areas showed an increase by more than an hour and a half per day by the turn of the century. The implications of these changes will vary depending on the timing of the increase or decrease. Further research is needed to look at timing of fog events