In 1974 Kolmogorov proposed a non-probabilistic approach to statistics and
model selection. Let data be finite binary strings and models be finite sets of
binary strings. Consider model classes consisting of models of given maximal
(Kolmogorov) complexity. The ``structure function'' of the given data expresses
the relation between the complexity level constraint on a model class and the
least log-cardinality of a model in the class containing the data. We show that
the structure function determines all stochastic properties of the data: for
every constrained model class it determines the individual best-fitting model
in the class irrespective of whether the ``true'' model is in the model class
considered or not. In this setting, this happens {\em with certainty}, rather
than with high probability as is in the classical case. We precisely quantify
the goodness-of-fit of an individual model with respect to individual data. We
show that--within the obvious constraints--every graph is realized by the
structure function of some data. We determine the (un)computability properties
of the various functions contemplated and of the ``algorithmic minimal
sufficient statistic.''Comment: 25 pages LaTeX, 5 figures. In part in Proc 47th IEEE FOCS; this final
version (more explanations, cosmetic modifications) to appear in IEEE Trans
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