Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2010The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of north-central North America provides some of the most critical wetland habitat continent-wide to waterbirds. Agricultural conversion has resulted in widespread wetland drainage. Furthermore, climate change projections indicate a drier future, which will alter remaining wetland habitats. I evaluated Black Tern (Chlidonias niger) habitat selection and the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of waterbird species. To examine Black Tern habitat selection, I surveyed 589 wetlands in North and South Dakota in 2008-09, then created multivariate habitat models. I documented breeding at 5% and foraging at 17% of wetlands surveyed, and found local variables were more important predictors of use than landscape variables, evidence for differential selection of wetlands where breeding and foraging occurred, and evidence fora more limited role of area sensitivity (wetland size). To examine the potential effects of climate change, I created models relating occurrence of five waterbird species to climate and wetland variables for the U.S. PPR. Projected range reductions were 28 to 99%, with an average of 64% for all species. Models also predicted that, given even wetland density, the best areas to conserve under climate change are Northern North Dakota and Minnesota
