Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2014.This thesis applies modern Autoregressive Distributed Lag modeling techniques to estimate the effects of oil tax policy in the case of the 2007 ACES legislation on exploratory drilling within Alaska. This analysis uses recently released public data to examine the period of 1986 to 2013 in quarterly intervals which includes all periods in which ACES was in place. While this subject has become a popular subject of debate within the state and industry, no similar statistical analysis has been conducted to date. According to the results, ACES had a significantly negative and lasting effect on exploration levels while it was in effect. The oil price and interest rate are also found to be important variables in characterizing exploration activity
