Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage
Abstract
Large resource development projects take years to plan. During that planning time, the public
frequently debates the potential benefits and risks of a project, but with incomplete information.
In these debates, some people might assert that a project would have great benefits, while others
might assert that it would certainly harm the environment. At the same time, the developer will
be assessing different designs, before finally submitting one to the government permitting
agencies for evaluation and public scrutiny.
For large mines in Alaska, the government permitting process takes years, and often includes an
ecological risk assessment. This assessment is a data-intensive, scientific evaluation of the
project’s potential ecological risks, based on the specific details of the project.
Recently, some organizations have tried to bring scientific rigor to the pre-design public
discussions, especially for mining projects, through a pre-design risk ecological risk assessment.
This is a scientific assessment of the environmental risks a project might pose, before the details
of project design, risk-prevention, and risk-mitigation measures are known.
It is important to know whether pre-design risk assessment is a viable method for drawing
conclusions about risks of projects. If valid risk predictions can be made at that stage, then
people or governments would not have to wait for either a design or for the detailed evaluation
that is done during the permitting process. Such an approach could be used to short cut
permitting. It could affect project financing; it could affect the schedule, priority, or even the
resources that governments put toward evaluating a project. But perhaps most important: in an
age where public perceptions are an important influence on a project’s viability and government
permitting decisions, a realistic risk assessment can be used to focus public attention on the facts.
But if the methodology is flawed and results in poor quality information and unsupportable
conclusions, then a pre-design risk assessment could unjustifiably either inflame or calm the
public, depending on what it predicts.Executive Summary / Section 1. Introduction / Section 2. Overview of Ecological Risk / Section 3. Ecological Risk Assessment Methodology / Section 4. Examples of Post-Design Ecological Risk Assessments / Section 5. Pre-Design Ecological Risk Assessment: Risks of Large Scale Mining in the Bristol Bay Watershed / Section 6. Conclusion / Bibliograph