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GPS constraints on Indo-Asian convergence in the Bhutan Himalaya: Segmentation and potential for a 8.2-8.8 Mw earthquake

Abstract

The seismogenic setting of Bhutan is unusual due to its lower-than-average 20th century seismic moment release (Drukpa et al. 2006), its absence of a reliable historical record, and its unusual location near the Shillong plateau where a great earthquake in 1897 resulted in ≈10 m of N/S shortening of the Indian plate to its south (Gahalaut et al. 2011). Despite these indicators that lower than normal convergence velocities should currently prevail, the GPS velocity between Shillong and Lhasa suggests that convergence in Sikkim and Bhutan occurs at velocities exceeding 20 mm/yr. GPS points between the Greater Himalaya and the Shillong Plateau measured in 2003, 2006 and 2012 permit us to quantify Bhutan\u27s seismogenic potential

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