Banfill, Phil

Cotton, Ian

Harrison, Gareth

Jenkins, David

Wood, Ruth

Edinburgh Research Explorer

     Edinburgh Research Explorer                                      How can UK energy systems be made more resilient to theimpacts of climate change?Citation for published version:Cotton, I, Wood, R, Harrison, G, Banfill, P & Jenkins, D 2016, How can UK energy systems be made moreresilient to the impacts of climate change? Living with Environmental Change (LWEC) Partnership.Link:Link to publication record in Edinburgh Research ExplorerDocument Version:Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordGeneral rightsCopyright for the publications made accessible via the Edinburgh Research Explorer is retained by the author(s)and / or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing these publications that users recognise andabide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.Take down policyThe University of Edinburgh has made every reasonable effort to ensure that Edinburgh Research Explorercontent complies with UK legislation. If you believe that the public display of this file breaches copyright pleasecontact openaccess@ed.ac.uk providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately andinvestigate your claim.Download date: 05. Apr. 2019How can UK energy systems be made more resilient tothe impacts of climate change?What changes are needed in the UK electricity generation,transmission and distribution systems to address the dualchallenges of reducing vulnerability to the impacts ofclimate change while decarbonising the energy system?  Living With Environmental ChangePolaris House, North Star AvenueSwindon, Wiltshire SN2 1EUUnited KingdomEmail: office@LWEC.org.ukwww.lwec.org.ukThe LivingWith Environmental Change Partnership brings together 22 public sectororganisations that fund, carry out and use environmental research and observations.They include the UK research councils, government departments with environmentalresponsibilities, devolved administrations and government agencies. The privatesector is represented by a Business Advisory Board.Living With Environmental Change Policy and Practice NotesNote No.31May 20 1617838 LWEC PP31.qxp  13/05/2016  10:37  Page 1What are the implications ofdecarbonising the UK energy supply?The goal of decarbonising the UK energy system will haveimpacts upon the resilience of supply systems:Increasing levels of intermittent supply from renewable—resources located across the UK, will alter the way theelectricity grid is designed and operated.Uncertainty remains over how a different generation—portfolio will meet new peak loads emanating from newdemand-side technologies.Driven by rapid increases in electricity demand, the shift—to renewables and the addition of new generating plants,the grid will need to grow significantly and have thecapability to respond to increased amounts ofintermittent generation if the UK is to make the changesnecessary to deliver on its 2°C commitments.   The electrification of heating as well as road transport, in—order to reduce carbon emissions, will place substantialnew loads on the grid.  For example if 45% of householdswere to install heat pumps to replace fossil fuel heating,without significant efficiency measures, an additionaldemand of approx 26TWh could be created.Increasing electrification and ever more reliance on—electricity for convenience, comfort and connectivity (ielaptops, entertainment and security systems) furtherincrease sensitivity of consumers to supply disruption. Will the changing climate impact uponthe UK’s ability to generate energy fromrenewable sources? Climate projections to 2050 suggest: A slight overall increase in solar energy output but with—significant regional differences – greater increases in thesouth and smaller in the north.  Seasonal changes willalso mean a slight decrease in the winter and an increasein the summer.A slight increase in overall annual output from—hydropower resources, but marked seasonal differences.There is slight increase in winter output (c 6%) and amore marked decrease in summer output (c -13%);however because more power is generated in the winterperiod this results in the small net increase.That adaptation to hydropower schemes to capitalise on—changes in rainfall patterns may enable a significantincrease (c 25%) in capacity, but the measures wouldmake individual schemes more expensive to construct (c +20%) due to their larger size.Only limited changes to the supply of wind and wave—energy.National and regional policies seek to ensure that resilient infrastructuresystems are in place to meet future energy needs in the face of a changingclimate while also contributing to the UK’s carbon emission reduction targets.Fulﬁlling both objectives poses challenges. The use of low carbon, renewableenergy technologies, such as wind turbines and hydropower, is expected toincrease.   However, the power supply from these technologies may beperiodic and/or irregular.  At the same time many emission pathways suggesta switch from the use of fossil fuels to low carbon electricity for poweringvehicles and heating to meet carbon reduction targets.Living With Environmental ChangeHow can UK energy systems be made more resilient to the impacts of climate change?17838 LWEC PP31.qxp  13/05/2016  10:37  Page 2Policy and Practice NotesNote No.31 May 2016How resilient is the energy system inresponse to climate change?Current evidence indicates that: The physical infrastructure of the national grid is likely to—remain able to withstand extreme weather conditionsarising from climate change over the coming twenty years,assuming that electricity demand does not increasesignificantly during that period.Transmission system assets are vulnerable to increases in—temperature that result from climate change, particularlywhere the urban heat island effect is strong. Overhead linesmay see a reduction in rating (the amount of power theycan carry) of 27%, cable ratings may be reduced by 10%and transformers by 17%. In some cases, these reductionsin ratings can be easily mitigated but designers shouldalready consider the impact of climate change as theychoose equipment to be installed.Equipment may age more quickly as air temperatures—increase.  This is particularly the case for transmissionsystem transformers. Robust systems that are less vulnerable to extreme weather—events will be required in the longer term. This will giveadditional benefit in comparison to building in extraredundancy/decreasing repair times.The widespread adoption of air conditioning or comfort—cooling within the commercial and domestic sectors,coupled with increasing temperatures associated withclimate change, could lead to a significant increase insummer electricity demand. Increased cooling demand has the potential to move peak—energy demand from the winter to the summer, dependenton the evolution of the market in the domestic sector andimprovements in the efficiency of domestic (and non-domestic) cooling systems and strategies.  Such changeswould need to be factored into grid operation andmaintenance.How can new methods of modelling UKenergy demand help?The RESNET electricity demand scenario tool has beendeveloped to quantify plausible energy use scenarioswhich can be used to test the UK energy system resilienceagainst extreme events such as flooding and severestorms:Systematic bottom-up modelling of energy demand can be—used as part of an appraisal of the impacts of climatechange on electricity generation and transmission systems.The probabilistic nature of future climate projections allow—a climate-based risk analysis to be carried out on thelikelihood of defined system thresholds being exceeded.This can aid the design of resilience into energy networksthat are serving future demand. 17838 LWEC PP31.qxp  13/05/2016  10:37  Page 3Living With Environmental ChangeHow can UK energy systems be made more resilient to the impacts of climate change? This Policy and Practice Note was written by Professor Ian Cotton and DrRuth Wood on behalf of the RESNET project team and Professor GarethHarrison, Professor Phil Banfill and Dr David Jenkins on behalf of theARIES Project Team.  Thanks go to Jamie McWilliam, Head of Futures,Energy Networks Association, for comments on the text.Useful resources: ARCC http://www.arcc-network.org.uk/ RESNET: http://www.mace.manchester.ac.uk/our-research/centres-institutes/tyndall-manchester/major-research-projects/completed-projects/resnet/ARIES: http://www.arcc-network.org.uk/project-summaries/aries/#.VyN7l4f2bs0 Fu, G., Wilkinson, S. & Dawson, R. 2014 ‘A Spatial Model for InfrastructureNetwork Generation and Evolution’ in Sanayei, A., Rössler, O.E. & Zelinka, I.(eds) Proceedings of 2014 Interdisciplinary Symposium on ComplexSystems, 365-371 Wood F R, Calverley D; Glynn S; Mander S; Walsh C; Kuriakose J; Hill F;Roeder M, 2015 The impacts of climate change on UK energy demandInfrastructure Asset Management Volume 2 Issue 3,107-119Panteli, M, Pierluigi, M, 2015 The Grid: Stronger, Bigger, Smarter?:Presenting a Conceptual Framework of Power System Resilience IEEE Powerand Energy Magazine vol 13, issue 3 58-66Panteli M,  Pierluigi,  M, 2015 Influence of extreme weather and climatechange on the resilience of power systems: Impacts and possible mitigationstrategies  Electric Power Systems Research Volume 127, 259–270doi:10.1016/j.epsr.2015.06.012Ghanem, DA, Mander, S, Gough, C 2016 “I think we need to get a bettergenerator”: Household resilience to disruption to power supply duringstorm events Energy Policy Volume 92, 171–180http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516300453Contact: Ian Cotton, Manchester University email: ian.cotton@manchester.ac.ukSeries editor: Anne Liddon, Newcastle UniversitySeries coordinator: Jeremy Phillipson, Newcastle UniversityFurther informationWhat action do decision makers need to take?Policymakers will need toTake account of the technological and behavioural change arising from efforts to decarbonise and their impacts on—electricity demand, eg how householders use heat pump technologies and when and where they may charge electricvehicles.  Take account of the impacts of climate change on energy demand, eg its effects on the demand for comfort cooling. —Monitor electricity demand in relation to the capacity of the physical infrastructure of the UK grid. —Ensure that information is made available to the public about how climate change may affect the UK energy system and—the supply to their homes and workplaces.Energy companies will need to:Upgrade certain assets to increase system resilience, eg install larger cables to increase rating, and upgrade some—transformers.Consider resilience at multiple scales to reflect the differing needs of different consumer groups, eg large industrial—consumers, critical users (eg hospitals) and private consumers.Make appropriate advice available to differing consumers and consumer groups as to the types of measures that they—can take to enhance their own resilience.17838 LWEC PP31.qxp  13/05/2016  10:37  Page 4x163986_IDC_FSC_p1_sh.indd   1 19/05/2016   10:01

https://www.pure.ed.ac.uk/ws/files/31117096/LWEC_pp31.pdf

How can UK energy systems be made more resilient to the impacts of climate change?

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Edinburgh Research Explorer