Coronavirus (COVID-19): ARIMA based time-series analysis to forecast near future

Abstract

COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths. In such grave circumstances, it is very important to predict the future infected cases to support prevention of the disease and aid in the healthcare service preparation. Following that notion, we have developed a model and then employed it for forecasting future COVID-19 cases in India. The study indicates an ascending trend for the cases in the coming days. A time series analysis also presents an exponential increase in the number of cases. It is supposed that the present prediction models will assist the government and medical personnel to be prepared for the upcoming conditions and have more readiness in healthcare systems.Comment: Pages: 11, Tables: 4, Figures: 6; Author Contributions: H.T. and T.C. conceptualized the project. H.T. designed the study, performed the computations and investigations, contributed to data analysis and wrote the manuscript. P.R. provided the resources. T.C. and V.S. supervised the study and reviewed the manuscrip