The goal of this study is to establish a general framework for predicting the
so-called critical Turning Period in an infectious disease epidemic such as the
COVID-19 outbreak in China early this year. This framework enabled a timely
prediction of the turning period when applied to Wuhan COVID-19 epidemic and
informed the relevant authority for taking appropriate and timely actions to
control the epidemic. It is expected to provide insightful information on
turning period for the world's current battle against the COVID-19 pandemic.
The underlying mathematical model in our framework is the individual
Susceptible-Exposed- Infective-Removed (iSEIR) model, which is a set of
differential equations extending the classic SEIR model. We used the observed
daily cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan from February 6 to 10, 2020 as the input to
the iSEIR model and were able to generate the trajectory of COVID-19 cases
dynamics for the following days at midnight of February 10 based on the updated
model, from which we predicted that the turning period of CIVID-19 outbreak in
Wuhan would arrive within one week after February 14. This prediction turned to
be timely and accurate, providing adequate time for the government, hospitals,
essential industry sectors and services to meet peak demands and to prepare
aftermath planning. Our study also supports the observed effectiveness on
flatting the epidemic curve by decisively imposing the Lockdown and Isolation
Control Program in Wuhan since January 23, 2020. The Wuhan experience provides
an exemplary lesson for the whole world to learn in combating COVID-19.Comment: 24 paages, 9 figures, 10 table