Objective: To conduct an early estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number
(BRN) induced by government interference, and to project resulting day to day
number of in-patients, ICU-patients and cumulative number of deaths in a Danish
setting.
Method: We used the Kermack and McKendrick model with varying basic
reproduction number to estimate number infected and age stratified percentages
to estimate number of in-patients, ICU-patients and cumulative number of
deaths. Changes in basic reproduction number was estimated based on current
in-patient numbers.
Results: The basic reproductive number in the time period of February 27th to
March 18th was found to be 2.65, however, this number was reduced to 1.99 after
March 18th.
Keywords: COVID-19, basic reproduction number, Danish populatio