Landscape allocation: stochastic generators and statistical inference

Abstract

In agricultural landscapes, the composition and spatial configuration of cultivated and semi-natural elements strongly impact species dynamics, their interactions and habitat connectivity. To allow for landscape structural analysis and scenario generation, we here develop statistical tools for real landscapes composed of geometric elements including 2D patches but also 1D linear elements such as hedges. We design generative stochastic models that combine a multiplex network representation and Gibbs energy terms to characterize the distributional behavior of landscape descriptors for land-use categories. We implement Metropolis-Hastings for this new class of models to sample agricultural scenarios featuring parameter-controlled spatial and temporal patterns (e.g., geometry, connectivity, crop-rotation). Pseudolikelihood-based inference allows studying the relevance of model components in real landscapes through statistical and functional validation, the latter achieved by comparing commonly used landscape metrics between observed and simulated landscapes. Models fitted to subregions of the Lower Durance Valley (France) indicate strong deviation from random allocation, and they realistically capture small-scale landscape patterns. In summary, our approach of statistical modeling improves the understanding of structural and functional aspects of agro-ecosystems, and it enables simulation-based theoretical analysis of how landscape patterns shape biological and ecological processes