Rigorous statistical detection and characterization of a deviation from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution above magnitude 8 in subduction zones

Abstract

We present a quantitative statistical test for the presence of a crossover c0 in the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake seismic moments, separating the usual power law regime for seismic moments less than c0 from another faster decaying regime beyond c0. Our method is based on the transformation of the ordered sample of seismic moments into a series with uniform distribution under condition of no crossover. The bootstrap method allows us to estimate the statistical significance of the null hypothesis H0 of an absence of crossover (c0=infinity). When H0 is rejected, we estimate the crossover c0 using two different competing models for the second regime beyond c0 and the bootstrap method. For the catalog obtained by aggregating 14 subduction zones of the Circum Pacific Seismic Belt, our estimate of the crossover point is log(c0) =28.14 +- 0.40 (c0 in dyne-cm), corresponding to a crossover magnitude mW=8.1 +- 0.3. For separate subduction zones, the corresponding estimates are much more uncertain, so that the null hypothesis of an identical crossover for all subduction zones cannot be rejected. Such a large value of the crossover magnitude makes it difficult to associate it directly with a seismogenic thickness as proposed by many different authors in the past. Our measure of c0 may substantiate the concept that the localization of strong shear deformation could propagate significantly in the lower crust and upper mantle, thus increasing the effective size beyond which one should expect a change of regime.Comment: pdf document of 40 pages including 5 tables and 19 figure