Nadin, Mihai

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This article was downloaded by: [Institutional Subscription Access]On: 20 October 2011, At: 05:31Publisher: Taylor & FrancisInforma Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: 1072954 Registeredoffice: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UKInternational Journal of GeneralSystemsPublication details, including instructions for authors andsubscription information:http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/ggen20Rich evidence: anticipation research inprogressMihai Nadin a ba Institute for Research in Anticipatory Systems, University ofTexas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, USAb Hanse Institute for Advanced Studies, Delmenhorst, GermanyAvailable online: 20 Oct 2011To cite this article: Mihai Nadin (2011): Rich evidence: anticipation research in progress,International Journal of General Systems, DOI:10.1080/03081079.2011.622087To link to this article:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03081079.2011.622087PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLEFull terms and conditions of use: http://www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditionsThis article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Anysubstantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing,systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.The publisher does not give any warranty express or implied or make any representationthat the contents will be complete or accurate or up to date. The accuracy of anyinstructions, formulae, and drug doses should be independently verified with primarysources. The publisher shall not be liable for any loss, actions, claims, proceedings,demand, or costs or damages whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly orindirectly in connection with or arising out of the use of this material.GUEST EDITORIALRich evidence: anticipation research in progressMihai Nadina,b*aInstitute for Research in Anticipatory Systems, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson,TX, USA; bHanse Institute for Advanced Studies, Delmenhorst, GermanyThis journal remains a reference impossible to ignore for all those who are interested in thesubject of anticipation. Robert Rosen had many reasons for entrusting much of his writingto the International Journal of General Systems (IJGS), not the least of which was hisrespect for George Klir, its Editor-in-Chief. In the first article in this issue focused onanticipation, one of Rosen’s students presents details pertaining to the manuscripts thatRosen submitted, in October 1972, for the Journal’s first volume (1974). For researcherssubmitting articles concerning anticipation, the stakes are high. We walk in the footstepsof one of the founders of the discipline.This issue on anticipation should serve as an indication of the Journal’s continuousinterest in the subject. Having reviewed recent submissions on anticipation, originatingfrom a variety of perspectives, I was encouraged to engage researchers who I know to bededicated to various aspects of the subject. Over 1 year ago, 10 authors replied to myinvitation to contribute new work. The journey started. As a consequence of the editorialprocess, judicious as ever, some authors eventually withdrew. Their ideas and conceptsneeded more time. Science can never be rushed; it is not a deadline endeavour.Some time ago (at TED 2005), arguing in favour of quantum computation, DavidDeutsch observed that matter, energy, and rich evidence make up the universe. At someother time, I will argue with him regarding the main hypothesis (the multiverse) headvocates. At this juncture, I will only appropriate his observation regarding rich evidenceas a prerequisite for formulating scientific theories. Indeed, there was rich evidence ofNewton’s mechanics, gravity in particular, and no less evidence for what became today’sdomain of life sciences. The same can be said about the rich evidence pertinent toanticipation. One word of caution: within my understanding of anticipation as alwaysexpressed in action, and of anticipatory processes as the unity of deterministic an non-deterministic processes, anticipation is not necessarily successful all the time – it can fail.Successful and unsuccessful anticipations are part of the rich evidence we need toconsider. In our context of existence, we encounter successful and failed anticipations asthey pertain to extreme events (devastating when anticipation fails), to political andeconomic processes, to art, to science, to health (or its failure). Rich evidence of course,but of a nature quite different from that of predominantly deterministic processes(characteristic of physical phenomena).ISSN 0308-1079 print/ISSN 1563-5104 onlineq 2011 Taylor & Francishttp://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03081079.2011.622087http://www.tandfonline.com*Email: nadin@utdallas.eduInternational Journal of General Systems2011, 1–3, iFirst ArticleDownloaded by [Institutional Subscription Access] at 05:31 20 October 2011 The articles published herein speak for themselves. Rosen’s most talented student, DrAlois Louie, works in his mentor’s tradition. The author provides a representation,inspired by Rosen’s (M, R)-systems, of entailment characteristic of anticipatory systems.The simple examples he mentions (e.g. withdrawal reflex and perspiration) convincinglylead from the abstraction of the argument to concreteness. The entire approach is based onthe foundation of relational biology. As demanding as mathematical category theory –also Rosen’s choice – is, it is also extremely gratifying. The level of abstraction it makespossible corresponds to the nature of the processes integrated in the expression ofanticipation. It is possible that continuous interest within the scientific community foranticipation-grounded research will lead to new mathematics or to other representationsfrom which further research can benefit. It is in this spirit that Dr Lev Goldfarb’s EvolvingTransformation System is associated (in my text) with the need to capture anticipationexpression in forms adequate for better understanding its process condition.Years ago (in 2004), at the Hanse Institute for Advanced Studies (HanseWissenschaftskolleg, Delmenhorst, Germany), Franz Mechsner organized a two-daycolloquium that brought psychologists, cognitive scientists, computer scientists, andpracticing physicians to Delmenhorst. Anticipation was, undoubtedly, the focus, althoughit was often confused with prediction and forecast. Participants suggested a variety ofperspectives. Moreover, they brought a very decisive experimental inclination with them.My own presentation at that time was purely theoretical (Anticipation – a spookycomputation). Probably the only accomplishment to which I can lay claim was tointroduce Rosen’s work on anticipation to them. Mechsner’s article, Anticipation andOntology, is indicative of the need to keep the dialogue open among disciplines where thenotion of anticipation – although not yet well defined – was adopted long ago. Thebenefits of cross-pollination are well known. Mechsner emphasizes the goal-directednessand purposefulness of mental activity. Scott Kelso’s experiments (1984) in bimanualcoordination inspired Mechsner to advance new hypotheses. Allow me to mention that asthe final editing phase began, Dr Mechsner had to fight illness. (He was on medical leavefrom Northumbria University, where he teaches.) Mention is not made in order toingratiate him to the reader, rather to express respect for his dedication. In Delmenhorst,Joachim Hoffmann, Mario Wiesendanger, Gu¨nther Knoblich, Victor Smetacek, MartinaRieger, Thomas Schack, Theodor Kalveram, and Jan Restat contributed ideas that I wish Ihad assembled at that time. Taking note of how our concepts change over time, as researchgoes in-depth, is not just of documentary interest.In conceiving this issue, I committed to identifying those places where anticipationwork, in whichever form and shape, addresses some of the many issues of our time. Again,it was Rosen who saw the need to integrate the questions of his time into his theory. Marie-He´le`ne Caillol directs a Web presence (www.europe2020.org) on political anticipation.She is also the author of A Manual of Political Anticipation (Anticipolis Editions 2010).After consulting some colleagues, and eventually the Editor-in-Chief, I chose to integratea Report from her. It can be described as ‘What we do, how we do it, what ourmethodology is.’ The European Union, whose many crises have inspired predictions ofdoom, has financed quite a number of projects structured around the notion of anticipation(the best known being MindRACES, Pezzulo et al.). The Web presence of politicalanticipation is yet another example of asking serious questions about the future. Somemight see the European slant as a shortcoming. On the other hand, the Report published inthis issue could stimulate real-time, web-based anticipation applications. I for one wouldconsider a good knowledge aggregation that integrates real-time sensor data on issues suchGuest Editorial2Downloaded by [Institutional Subscription Access] at 05:31 20 October 2011 as extreme events (earthquakes, hurricanes, tornados, floods, disease, pandemics, etc.) tobe a good model (scientific and commercial).In this vein, my own text reports on the scientific investigations performed at the antE´– Institute for Research in Anticipatory Systems. These investigations combine the searchfor a more adequate mathematics with well-defined experimental aspects, integratingmedical, computational, and cognitive competence. It was argued (Elsasser, Rosen andNadin) that the expectations involved in experiments within the deterministic realm –reproducibility, in the first place – are inconsistent with the nature of anticipation. There isuniqueness (the idiographic aspect) to be represented and interpreted, not the generality oflaw (the nomothetic). This does not make anticipation cause-free, but rather suggests adifferent understanding of causality. The AnticipationScope presented in my text is anexperimental environment for quantifying the expression of anticipation in action. Furtherwork, in progress, in identifying how anticipation undergirds performance already buildson the results shared in this article.The issue you are reading is, in the final analysis, an invitation to more contributions inthe area of anticipation research. The authors who did not make the cut for this volume are,as far as I know, still at work on their respective contributions. I encourage them, as Iencourage all those active in anticipation research, to consider IJGS for publication.International Journal of General Systems 3Downloaded by [Institutional Subscription Access] at 05:31 20 October 2011 

Rich evidence: anticipation research in progress

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Rich evidence: anticipation research in progress

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