This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in on 13 December 2019, available online: https://doi.org/10.1080/15412555.2019.1694501Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a complex multi-morbid disorder with significant cardiac mortality. Current cardiovascular risk prediction models do not include COPD. We investigated whether COPD modifies future cardiovascular risk to determine if it should be considered in risk prediction models.Case-control study using baseline data from two randomized controlled trials performed between 2012 and 2015. Of the 90 eligible subjects, 26 COPD patients with lung hyperinflation were propensity matched for 10-year global cardiovascular risk score (QRISK2) with 26 controls having normal lung function. Patients underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, arterial stiffness and lung function measurements. Differences in pulse wave velocity (PWV), total arterial compliance (TAC) and aortic distensibility were main outcome measures.PWV (mean difference 1.0 m/s, 95% CI 0.02-1.92; p = 0.033) and TAC (mean difference -0.27 mL/m2/mmHg, 95% CI 0.39-0.15; p < 0.001) were adversely affected in COPD compared to the control group. The PWV difference equates to an age, sex and risk-factor adjusted increase in relative risk of cardiovascular events and mortality of 14% and 15%, respectively.There were no differences in aortic distensibility. In the whole cohort (n = 90) QRISK2 (β = 0.045, p = 0.005) was associated with PWV in multivariate analysis. The relationship between QRISK2 and PWV were modified by COPD, where the interaction term reached significance (p = 0.014). FEV1 (β = 0.055 (0.027), p = 0.041) and pulse (B = -0.006 (0.002), p = 0.003) were associated with TAC in multivariate analysis.Markers of cardiovascular outcomes are adversely affected in COPD patients with lung hyperinflation compared to controls matched for global cardiovascular risk. Cardiovascular risk algorithms may benefit from the addition of a COPD variable to improve risk prediction and guide management.HAPPY London ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01911910 and HZC116601; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01691885.The COPD trial was funded by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), London, United Kingdom (HZC116601); SmithKline Beecham Pharma; The HAPPY London Study was funded by The Barts Charity (437/1412), London, United Kingdom
